Extended Outlook Calls for Above-Normal Temps for Most of Country

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:23 AM

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast for June through August calls for above-normal temps across the country, with the exception of equal chances for normal, above- or below-normal temps from South Dakota to Oklahoma. Meanwhile, it calls for equal chances or normal, above- or below-normal precip across the country except for above-normal precip from South Dakota to northern Oklahoma and well as western Iowa and western Missouri.

In explaining the forecast, the CPC's Stephen Baxter says ENSO impacts were not explicitly considered for the extended outlook. "However, lagging impacts from El Nino are likely to remain implicitly, including via the extratropical SST footprint left in its wake," he explains. "Soil moisture conditions were also considered in early outlooks where some regions currently have substantial departures from normal. Prospects for a transition to La Nina conditions were considered primarily beginning in ASO (August-October) 2016 and throughout the autumn and winter months at the current time."

CPC Outlooks for June-August:


The outlook for June calls for above-normal temps across eastern Illinois to the East Coast, while below-normal temps are expected across Nebraska and western Kansas. Elsewhere across the Corn Belt, chances are equal for normal, above- or below-normal temps. Above-normal precip is expected across South Dakota to Texas and throughout most of Iowa, all but the northern quarter of Illinois and across the southern two-thirds of Indiana.

CPC Outlooks for June:


Below, compare the Seasonal Drought Outlook to the current Drought Monitor:


In its Seasonal Drought Outlook, the CPC says the outlook for the summer favors a tilt towards above-normal temps across most of the contiguous U.S., with enhanced chances for precip exceeding climatology across the central Rockies and Plains, as well as New England. "There are no regions where below-median precipitation is favored. Nevertheless, drought development is forecast for much of Washington and Oregon due to the lack of mountain snowpack and the warm seasonal outlook," it states.

"Drought development is also possible across parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, where spring precipitation was below normal," states the CPC. "Short-term drought conditions are also favored to expand from southwestern Pennsylvania through southern New England, where many locations have 90-day precipitation deficits exceeding 4 inches. In contrast, short- and medium-range forecasts for widespread precipitation favors drought removal across Missouri, the Southeast and the north-central Rockies."

Meanwhile, the CPC says there is "considerable uncertainty regarding the impact of summer monsoon convection on long-term drought conditions over the Southwest; however, enhanced rainfall early in the period makes drought removal more likely across New Mexico."



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