Market Snapshot | May 2, 2022

Corn futures are down sharply at midmorning with declines of 14 to 16 cents.

• Nearby corn futures fell to the lowest prices in a week amid profit-taking following the market’s run to contract highs late last week. Hopes a brief drier period early this month will enable better planting progress weighed on new-crop futures.
• Corn planting will remain behind schedule, stirring concerns over reduced yield potential. Widespread rain fell over the weekend in the Midwest, World Weather Inc. said. Rain was light enough in some eastern areas that planting should have advanced around the rains.
• Three more rounds of rain expected the next 10 days over much of the Corn Belt will keep fieldwork sluggish. However, “an important period of drier weather will occur May 13-16 with additional drying needed to allow for planting to become aggressive in many areas,” the forecaster said.
• USDA’s weekly crop progress update after today’s close likely will show limited planting progress. USDA reported 7% of the U.S. corn crop was planted as of April 24, up from 4% a week earlier but under the 15% five-year average for the date.
• USDA reported 1.684 MMT (66.3 million bu.) of corn inspected for export during the week ended April 28, up from 1.665 MMT the previous week. Expectations ranged from 1.0 to 1.775 MMT.
• Russian attacks on Ukraine’s grain infrastructure look like attempts to reduce the competition for Russia’s export markets, Germany’s agriculture minister said.
• July corn gapped lower at the start of overnight trading, broke under the 10-day moving average and fell as low as $7.90 1/2, the contract’s lowest intraday price since $7.81 on April 25. Initial resistance is seen at the gap between Friday’s low at $8.09 1/2 and today’s high at $8.08 1/2.

Soy complex futures are sharply lower, with nearby soybeans down more than 30 cents, nearby soyoil down over 300 points and July soymeal down generally $3 to $6.

• Nearby soybeans sank near three-week lows as sharp declines in crude oil pressured soyoil futures. Soymeal futures also fell sharply, hitting three-month lows.
• USDA reported 601,282 MMT (22.1 million bu.) of soybeans inspected for export during the week ended April 28, down from 605,385 MT the previous week. Expectations ranged from 500,000 MT to 1.0 MMT.
• USDA’s crop progress data this afternoon is expected to show plantings behind schedule. Last week, USDA reported the U.S. soybean crop 3% planted as of April 24, up from 1% a week earlier but down from the 5% five-year average for the date.
• Also this afternoon, USDA is expected to report March soybean crush reached a record for the month at 193.3 million bu., according to a Bloomberg survey. That would be up 2.7% from last year.

• Strategie Grains increased its forecast for this year’s European Union sunflower crop by 4.9%, reflecting an expected rise in planted area as farmers use an EU authorization to use fallow land to compensate for potential shortages in Black Sea supplies.
• July soybeans pushed slightly under the 50-day moving average at $16.50 1/4 and fell as low as $16.45 1/2, the contract’s lowest intraday price since $16.43 1/2 on April 13.

Wheat futures are mixed, with spring wheat firmer and HRW and SRW contracts mostly lower.

• Winter wheat futures are off overnight lows but still under pressure with rainfall expected to bring some relief to parched crops in the U.S. Plains.
• Rains reached some HRW areas over the weekend, with the most significant amounts in Nebraska, where central parts of the state received 0.60 to 1.43 inches. More moisture is expected in Nebraska, northeastern Colorado, northern and eastern Kansas and central Oklahoma with frequent rainfall during the next 10 days.
• Topsoil moisture in the first week of the outlook will improve additionally in the northern and eastern portions of wheat country. The southwest is unlikely to receive much rain; however, thunderstorms Sunday were locally beneficial. Temperatures will turn hot again Friday through Sunday which will promote high evaporation rates and some crop and livestock stress.
• USDA reported 384,460 MT (14.1 million bu.) of wheat inspected for export during the week ended April 28, up from 289,607MT the previous week. Expectations ranged from 225,000 to 500,000 MT.
• Last week, USDA reported 27% of the winter wheat crop in “good” or “excellent,” the lowest for this time of year since 1989.
• July SRW wheat overnight fell under the 50-day moving average and as low as $10.34 1/4, the contract’s lowest intraday price since April 8, after losing 21 3/4 cents last week. July HRW fell under $11.00 for the first time since April 8 and dropped as low as $10.86 3/4.

Live and feeder cattle are firmer at midmorning.

• Cattle futures climbed on corrective buying in the wake of steep declines last week, with last week’s stronger than expected cash trade underpinning the market.
• Weakness in corn futures boosted feeder cattle.
• Demand concerns may limit buying interest in futures with wholesale beef in a three-week slide. Choice cutout values fell $1.82 Friday to $260.78, down $7.13 for the week and the lowest daily average since March 22. Movement continued to be relatively strong at 127 loads.
• Cash cattle averaged $143.31 last week through Friday morning, up 29 cents from the previous week's average.
• Live cattle technicals turned bearish with June futures trading well-below a wide chart gap created at the start of last week. Initial support comes in at last Friday’s low of $135.50.

Hog futures are mostly lower, led by summer-month contracts.

• Lean hog futures extended sharp losses from the previous two weeks on slumping technicals, weaker cash and concern over demand.
• The CME lean hog index fell 4 cents to $101.77, putting the benchmark at a premium of around $1 to nearby May futures. The June contract trimmed its premium to the cash index to around $4.50.
• Pork cutout values ended last week at $104.58, down sharply from $111.28 at the end of the previous week.
• June lean hog futures fell as low as $102.90, the contract’s lowest intraday price since $102.075 on Jan. 20.