Report: If House GOP Wins Chamber, Term Limits Possible for All Chairs & Ranking Members

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Mortgage payments as percentage of income in U.S. highest since 2008

 

                                                In Today’s Digital Newspaper

 

Six people were reported dead as Russia aimed strikes on the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. Plumes of black smoke were seen, believed to be caused by missiles, the Associated Press reported. Meanwhile, the port city of Mariupol looked set to fall to Russian forces after Ukrainians refused to surrender by a Sunday deadline set by Russia. In this new phase of Moscow’s offensive, the two countries’ militaries will be operating on open terrain well-suited for massed forces and armored thrusts. Russian forces will also be fighting in closer proximity to their bases in western Russia, giving them shorter supply lines, and on territory their commanders know better. Pope Francis on Sunday called for peace in Ukraine in his annual Easter message, warning that the conflict could lead to nuclear war.

Many emerging-market governments are having a harder time making debt payments to foreign creditors due to the effects of the Russia/Ukraine war.

More economists are talking about the odds of a U.S. recession or stagflation ahead, with most of them still below 50%.

Mortgage payments as a percentage of income in the U.S. are the highest since the 2008 housing bubble. The highest mortgage rates in more than a decade pose a threat to the U.S. spring housing market.

On Friday, USDA announced a daily sale of 389,000 metric tons of soybeans to China. Of the total, 121,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021-2022 marketing year and 268,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022-2023 marketing year. USDA also announced 272,000 metric tons of soybeans received during the reporting period for delivery to China during the 2022-2023 marketing year and 177,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021-2022 marketing year.

China's quarterly economic growth beat market expectations, but other economic data showed weakness. Retail sales in March fell 3.5% from a year earlier as pandemic lockdowns kept people indoors and shut stores.

Car prices are expected to remain high this year as strong demand and inventory constraints continue to affect availability. For electric vehicles, Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe warned that a looming shortage of battery supplies could be a greater challenge than the current computer-chip shortage.

On the policy front, small-business owners are upset over a congressional effort to redirect unspent money from Covid-19 programs.

Texas halted all Mexican truck inspections after border chaos. The large backups at border crossings affected at least $180 million in fresh fruit and vegetables, according to an industry association, and eliminated some $20 million in Texas produce-related production. Truckers also lost income while sitting in lines that stretched for 30 hours or more.

American utilities are planning major upgrades, moves poised to further boost power costs.

President Biden tries again to fill a top regulatory post at the Fed. The White House said it intends to nominate Michael Barr to be the central bank’s vice chairman for supervision. Barr, a former Obama administration official, could have better luck securing support because he is seen as more moderate than Sarah Bloom Raskin, whose nomination was pulled amid a lack of sufficient Senate support.

Food and Drug Administration officials said they are examining reports from more than 100 consumers who told the agency that they got sick after eating Lucky Charms cereal recently. The reports come after thousands of people have complained on a consumer website, saying they have experienced nausea, vomiting and diarrhea after eating Lucky Charms.

HPAI has now been found in commercial flocks in 15 states.

Punchbowl News reports that if the GOP wins the House Nov. 8, House GOP leaders are mulling term limits for all chairs and ranking members. If that occurs, there were be major impacts for the Democrats.

Former EPA boss Scott Pruitt is running for the U.S. Senate.

Twitter moved to prevent Elon Musk from significantly increasing his stake, but Musk answered back.

 

MARKET FOCUS

Equities today: Global stocks markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings. Markets in Australia, Hong Kong and much of Europe are closed today making for a quiet start to the week. Asian equities finished lower as concerns over the global economy continued. Markets in Hong Kong and Australia were closed for holidays. The Nikkei fell 293.48 points, 1.08%, at 26,799.71. The Shanghai Composite was down 15.72 points, 0.49%, at 3,195.52.

     U.S. equities Thursday: Major U.S. stock indices ended the shortened trading week lower, and registered losses for the week-the Dow fell 0.8%, the Nasdaq lost 2.6% and the S&P 500 declined 2.1%. On Thursday, the Dow declined 113.36 points, 0.33%, at 34,451.23. The Nasdaq was down 292.51 points, 2.14%, at 13,351.08. The S&P 500 lost 54.00 points, 1.21%, at 4,392.59.

     Stocks 041422

Agriculture markets Thursday:

  • Corn: May corn futures rose 6 3/4 cents to $7.90 1/4, up 21 1/2 cents for the week and the highest settlement for a nearby contract since September 2012. December corn fell 1/2 cent to $7.35 1/4 after reaching $7.39, a contract high for the fourth consecutive day.
  • Soy complex: May soybeans rose 6 1/4 cents to $16.82 1/4, down 6 3/4 cents for the week. May soymeal rose $3.20 to $461.40, down $6.80 for the week. May soyoil gained 80 points to 78.91 cents, up 379 points for the week.
  • Wheat: May SRW wheat futures fell 17 cents to $10.96 1/2 after hitting a three-week high earlier. For the week, May SRW gained 45 cents. May HRW wheat fell 20 cents to $11.54, but still rose 47 1/4 cents this week. July spring wheat fell 12 1/4 cents to $11.46 3/4.
  • Cotton: July cotton fell 80 points to 140.71 cents per pound after reaching a contract high at 144.78 cents.
  • Cattle: April live cattle rose 5 cents to $140.675, while most-active June declined 45 cents to $136.425, up $2.60 for the week. May feeder cattle fell 17.5 cents to $161.775, up $2.40 for the week.
  • Hogs: June lean hogs rose 87.5 cents to $118.475, up $3.90 for the week. April lean hogs, which expired today, fell 2.5 cents to $99.875. Hog futures posted a firm weekly gain behind a resurgent wholesale pork market and signs of cash bottoming.
     

Ag markets today: Corn futures posted contract highs overnight, with front-month May futures poking above $8.00 — the 2013 high on the continuation chart that was matched earlier this year. Wheat and soybean futures were also strong coming off the extended holiday weekend. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 7 to 8 cents higher, soybeans were 6 to 12 cents higher and wheat futures were mostly 20 to 27 cents higher. Front-month U.S. crude oil futures were trading just below unchanged, while the U.S. dollar index was around 250 points higher this morning. 

Technical and other viewpoints from Jim Wyckoff: “Risk aversion remains elevated amid the Russia-Ukraine war that shows no signs of ending any time soon and the Covid surge in China that has locked down major cities in the world’s second-largest economy. Stock traders are also focused on corporate earnings reports.”

     April 18 Corn

     April 18 Soybeans

     April 18 Crude

     April 18 Bonds

     April 18 Gold

On tap today:

     • U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Sung Kim is in Seoul for talks with his South Korean counterpart Noh Kyu-duk.
     • Today is the last day to file your taxes (for most people). The IRS is dealing with millions of returns from last year that have yet to be processed, besides staffing issues due to Covid-19 and a lack of needed funding for the agency.
     • White House Easter Egg Roll is today. Thousands of guests, who won tickets via a public lottery, will pour through the south gates today for an epic Easter egg hunt.
     • National Association of Home Builders housing market index is expected to fall to 77 in April from 79 one month earlier. (10 a.m. ET)
     • USDA Grain Export Inspections report, 11 a.m. ET.
     • USDA Crop Progress report, 4 p.m. ET.
     • St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks on the economy and monetary policy at 4 p.m. ET.

A White House report warns that supply-chain disruptions won’t go away once the pandemic ends. Globalization has made supply chains very efficient but also fragile. Climate change and future natural disasters could make supply chains vulnerable in the future. Link for details. Link for report. 

The Goldman Sachs economics team says that there is now a 35% chance of a U.S recession over the next two years, with the labor market a particular problem for the Federal Reserve. The large gap between jobs and workers, which keeps wage growth elevated, has historically only declined during periods of economic contraction, chief economist Jan Hatzius and team wrote in a note out on Sunday. Predictions for a recession have been growing as the Fed tries to negotiate a soft landing for the economy at a time when inflation is at a level not seen in four decades.

     Deutsche Bank was the first big Wall Street bank to forecast a recession, saying in the first week of April a recession in late 2023 is now their base case.

     Wells Fargo stock strategist Chris Harvey said in a note last week that despite "daily calls for a recession from anyone with a megaphone, we do not expect one of the next 12 months. Rather, stagflation (high inflation/slower growth) likely will prevail."    

Texas halts all Mexican truck inspections after border chaos. Texas Governor Greg Abbott halted all Mexican truck inspections after a week of protests, traffic jams and mounting outrage from business interests on both sides of the border. Abbott signed an agreement with the governor of the border state of Tamaulipas on Friday that ends vehicle-safety checks in exchange for increased vigilance south of the international line. Tamaulipas was the fourth and final border state to ink such a deal after Abbott triggered gridlock and angry trucker protests with an April 6 crackdown on northbound commercial traffic. Although Abbott initially said his decree was intended to curb undocumented immigration and drug smuggling, Texas state troopers targeted highway-safety issues such as bad brakes and other mechanical issues. Tamaulipas has pledged “to prevent illegal immigration from Mexico into Texas,” Abbott said during a joint press conference with Tamaulipas Governor Francisco Javier García Cabeza de Vaca in the Texas border town of Weslaco on Friday. Abbott warned that if enforcement south of the border falters and undocumented migration increases, he will reimpose the program of inspecting every commercial vehicle that crosses over.

     Upshot: The large backups at border crossings affected at least $180 million in fresh fruit and vegetables, according to an industry association, and eliminated some $20 million in Texas produce-related production. Truckers also lost income while sitting in lines that stretched for 30 hours or more. Industry groups estimate it will take at least a week to get things moving normally.

Car prices are expected to remain elevated in 2022. Executives gathered at the New York International Auto Show painted a gloomy picture of the inventory constraints that will continue to affect availability for both new and used cars throughout the year, leaving prices high amid depleted car lots, strong consumer demand and lower factory output.

     Cars elevated

Shipping rates are sliding. Various measures show the strong pricing that helped fuel big shipping line profits and major customer headaches are in clear retreat so far this year. The Wall Street Journal notes (link) that rates remain high by historical standards but pricing should continue on a downward path as carriers prepare to take in significant new capacity late this year. The rate measures suggest broad economic forces are buffeting the highly cyclical container sector. The Drewry Shipping Consultants’ World Container Index has dropped 16% since the start of the year and is down 13% since March 10. Shipping lines are starting to cancel sailings amid signs that consumers are spending less on goods. Inflation is also taking a toll on demand, but shipping prices now are signaling that at least one inflation driver is losing steam.

Market perspectives:

     • Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was firmer ahead of US market action amid a mixed tone in global currencies versus the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has moved up to trade around 2.86% with a steady-to-firmer tone in global government bond yields. Gold and silver futures are seeing buying interest ahead of U.S. housing data, with gold trading above $1,992 per troy ounce and silver above $26.10 per troy ounce.

     • Crude oil futures are lower ahead of U.S. market action, with U.S. crude around $106.40 per barrel and Brent around $111.15 per barrel. Futures had been higher in Asian trading after being closed Friday, with U.S. crude around $107.90 per barrel and Brent around $112.80 per barrel.

     • Cargill suspends palm oil purchases from Malaysia’s Sime Darby. Cargill Inc. stopped buying palm oil products from Sime Darby Plantation Bhd. after the U.S. said it found indicators of forced labor in the Malaysian grower. Cargill has suspended all new sourcing of palm oil and derivative products from Sime Darby since Feb. 25, the world’s biggest oil palm planter by acreage said in an emailed response to questions from Bloomberg. Sime did not give a reason for the halt but said that it is in talks with Cargill, who is a direct customer, on the move. Some of Malaysia’s biggest palm and rubber-glove producers have been under scrutiny in recent years over allegations of migrant worker abuse. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection in late January said it would seize Sime’s palm oil and related goods as it has sufficient information to determine that the company’s products were made using convicts, forced or indentured labor.

     • India to be regular wheat exporter amid tight supplies following Russia invasion of Ukraine. India aims to become a permanent global supplier of wheat as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine hits the global grains trade and creates opportunities for the world’s second-biggest grower. Shipments from the South Asian nation may total an all-time high of as much as 15 million tons in the year that began in April, compared with more than 7 million tons a year earlier, Piyush Goyal, food and commerce minister, said on Friday. India targets to be a permanent exporter of wheat, he said. Indian wheat has become competitive for the first time in years following the Russia-Ukraine war and drought in some major growing nations. The Indian government also wants the World Trade Organization to relax rules so that it can export wheat from state reserves to help countries that are facing a shortage due to the war, the Indian minister said. India has a huge surplus of wheat after record harvests in the past years. State-run warehouses stored almost 19 million tons of the grain at the beginning of April, more than double the level required by the government for this time of the year, official data show.

     • Fertilizer facts and figures. As with many other commodities, the world has in recent decades increasingly come to rely on Russia for its fertilizer needs. In 1992, the year after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the country’s production of nitrogen amounted to 4.9 million nutrient tons, close to 7% of worldwide consumption, according to data compiled by the International Fertilizer Association (IFA) and Green Markets, a Bloomberg company. By 2019, that had risen to almost 10%. The country’s global share in phosphates and potash also climbed, to about 8% and 20%, respectively. By using techniques such as rigorous soil testing and so-called precision agriculture, food producers can figure out just how much nutrition their land needs in a given growing season—and apply not a teaspoon more. Innovations include so-called controlled-release formulations, usually tiny capsules that dissolve gradually when they come into contact with moisture, releasing nutrients. (Source: Bloomberg; Link).

        Fertilizer consumption

     • Commitments of Traders report (Source: Barron’s):

        CFTC 041422

     • NWS weather: Late season heavy snowfall to cause treacherous travel conditions in parts of the interior Northeast late Monday into Tuesday... ...Unsettled pattern in the Pacific Northwest to produce mountain snow and valley/coastal rain... ...Summer-like heat in the Desert Southwest; Critical Risk of fire weather in parts of the southern Rockies and central High Plains on Tuesday.

        NWS 041822
        Wx 041822

Items in Pro Farmer's First Thing Today include:

     • Commodity price strength to start the week
     • Chinese Covid lockdowns impacting impact on world’s global supply chain (details below)
     • Argentine grain truckers end strike
     • Will cash cattle strength persist?
     • Strong cash rally built into June hogs

 

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

— Summary: The last Ukrainian fighters in Mariupol showed no signs of surrender Sunday, and Russian officials warned that the holdouts “will all be eliminated” as Moscow’s forces seek to complete their takeover of the strategically important southeastern port city. Russia warned the U.S. to stop sending weapons to Ukraine or risk “unpredictable consequences.” The U.S. and allies plan for long-term isolation of Russia and have begun planning for a different world, in which they no longer try to coexist and cooperate with Russia, but actively seek to isolate and weaken it. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told CNN that Ukraine is not willing to give up territory in the eastern part of the country to end the war with Russia, and Ukraine's military is prepared to fight Moscow's military in the Donbas region in a battle he says could influence the course of the entire war. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Sunday that his country is running a $5 billion-a-month deficit and needs financial assistance. He is expected to visit Washington this week.

  • Ukraine has completed its questionnaire for membership to the European Union, according to Ihor Zhovkva, deputy head of the president’s office. The form was delivered personally to Zelenskyy by Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, on April 8. Its completion is the first step towards Ukraine becoming a candidate country, which Zhovkva hopes will happen by June.
     

— Market impacts:

  • Ukraine war deepens debt woes. The war in Ukraine is making it tougher for many emerging-market governments to make debt payments to foreign creditors, fueling concerns of potential crises that could shake markets and weaken the global economic recovery, the Wall Street Journal reports (link). Many of these countries accumulated mountains of debt during the past decade while inflation and interest rates were low and in the past two years when Covid-19-related costs were climbing. Then Russia’s invasion of its neighbor and the West’s sanctions sent food, energy and other prices soaring at a time when many major central banks are raising interest rates to tame inflation. Now, from Islamabad to Cairo to Buenos Aires, government officials are struggling with rising import prices and debt bills on top of the continuing pandemic.

    Growing debt
  • Russian commodities race to the U.S. When the U.S. banned imports of Russian oil, gas and coal on March 8, the delivery deadline for existing contracts was set for April 22. Tankers carrying Russian fossil fuels have been ramping up their schedules, many arriving at American ports in recent days, the Economist notes. But not every ship that has made a dash for it will succeed. Kpler, a firm that tracks trade in commodities, says it now looks like the Star Challenger, for example, will not get its load of coal from Murmansk to Louisiana in time. Meanwhile, only a few countries have sworn off imports of Russian fuels. Statista, a data firm, forecasts that Russian energy exports will reach $321 billion this year, 36% higher than in 2021.

 

POLICY UPDATE

— Small-business owners are upset over a congressional effort to redirect unspent money from Covid-19 programs, including about $5 billion allocated for small-business aid, to provide for the government’s pandemic health response.

 

PERSONNEL

— As expected, the Biden administration will nominate Michael Barr, a former Treasury Department official, to serve as the top financial regulator on the Federal Reserve board of governors. The administration’s previous nominee, Sarah Bloom Raskin, withdrew her nomination when West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin, a crucial Senate vote, signaled his opposition.

— Biden climate adviser McCarthy says resignation reports are ‘inaccurate’. White House climate adviser Gina McCarthy pushed back against media reports that she plans to resign, saying they’re inaccurate and “we have much more work to do.” White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain said Saturday that McCarthy, who headed the Environmental Protection Agency under President Barack Obama, is “on the team.”

 

CHINA UPDATE

— China’s economy accelerated in the first quarter of the year despite lockdowns that closed factories and kept tens of millions confined to their homes in March, according to official data that economists say overstates the strength of the world’s second-largest economy. China’s gross domestic product expanded by an annual 4.8% in the first quarter, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said Monday, a faster pace than the 4% expansion recorded in the final three months of 2021.

     Separate data out Monday showed China's economic activity slowed last month. Retail sales fell 3.5% in March from a year earlier, down from a 6.7% on-year increase in the first two months of 2022. Industrial output and fixed-asset investment advanced at a slower pace than earlier in the year.

     China GDP data

— China’s grain import surged in March. China imported 2.41 MMT of corn in March, up 25% from last year, while wheat imports surged 95.1% to 870,000 MT and sorghum arrivals jumped 57.5% to 1 MMT. Through the first quarter of 2022, China’s imports were up 5.5% for corn, 4.6% for wheat and 36.9% for sorghum compared with the same period last year.

— Demand for China’s wheat reserves remains strong. China sold 531,469 MT, or 96.4%, of wheat reserves put up for auction at an average price of 2,841 yuan ($446) per metric ton. The sales price was up from 2,709 yuan ($425) per metric ton the previous week.

— China’s pork exports plunged in March as domestic production jumped. China imported 140,000 MT of pork last month, down 70% from the previous year. Through the first three months of this year, Chinese pork imports totaled 420,000 MT, down 64.2% from the same period last year. A strong increase in domestic production has sharply reduced China’s domestic pork prices and the need to import foreign supplies. China’s pork production totaled 15.6 MMT in the first three months of this year, up 14% from the same period last year and the highest quarterly output since the fourth quarter of 2018. China’s hog herd declined to 422.5 million head at the end of March, down from 449.2 million head at the end of last year.

— Impact of China Covid lockdowns. The Japanese bank Nomura has estimated that 373 million people in 45 Chinese cities are under some kind of lockdown, about a third of the population and accounting for the equivalent of around $7.2 trillion in annual gross domestic product. Experts are beginning to warn that China’s target of 5.5% economic growth for 2022 is now unrealistic because so much of daily economic life has ground to a halt. The World Bank recently revised its estimates for Chinese economic growth to 5% but noted that if its restrictive policies continue that could fall to 4%.

     The lockdowns are also beginning to have an impact on the world’s global supply chain, as factories that make iPhones, electric cars and semiconductors have had to stop operations. Also, some critical components cannot be trucked from ports to factories because of roadblocks and stringent Covid test requirements. The Port of Shanghai, which handled over 20% of Chinese freight traffic in 2021, is at a virtual standstill. Food supplies stuck in shipping containers without access to refrigeration are rotting. Incoming cargo is now stuck at Shanghai marine terminals for an average of eight days before it's transported elsewhere, a 75% increase since the recent round of lockdowns began. Meanwhile, cargo airlines have canceled all flights in and out of the city, and more than 90% of trucks supporting import and export deliveries are currently out of action.

     On Friday, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said in a statement that it sent a taskforce to Shanghai to work on a plan to resume production at 666 key manufacturers in the locked down city. Tesla executives hope they'll be allowed to reopen their doors by Monday, ending the factory's longest pause since its 2019 opening. The automaker has lost over 50,000 units of production thus far, according to materials reviewed by Reuters.

 

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

— Interior Department is selling additional oil and gas leases, but with some changes and will issue final sales notices for the upcoming sales Monday. The Interior Department also announced a royalty hike, increasing rates from 12.5% to 18.75%. The administration said the sale would incorporate 173 land parcels on about 144,000 acres, 80% less than the acreage nominated under the Trump administration. The Bureau of Land Management will incorporate national greenhouse gas emissions in oil and gas leasing decisions. Separately, the federal government also said it would incorporate the so-called social cost of carbon into leasing decisions and other regulations.

     Reaction from some environmental groups was mixed. A spokesperson for the Center for Western Priorities called it “good news” that “shows that Secretary Haaland and her team at Interior are listening to Westerners and working in the best interest of taxpayers… By limiting the upcoming sale to areas with existing oil and gas infrastructure, Interior will prevent speculators from locking up public lands with little or no potential for future production,” he added. “Raising the royalty rate ensures taxpayers will get a fair share from oil produced on these parcels.” The Center for Biological Diversity blasted the decision. “The Biden administration’s claim that it must hold these lease sales is pure fiction and a reckless failure of climate leadership,” Randi Spivak, public lands director at the Center for Biological Diversity, said in a statement. “It’s as if they’re ignoring the horror of firestorms, floods and megadroughts, and accepting climate catastrophes as business as usual.”

— U.S. utilities are planning major upgrades, moves poised to further boost power costs. Power companies are proposing tens of billions of dollars in spending in the coming years to reduce carbon emissions, partly in response to state and federal mandates, and to replace aging infrastructure that has become more prone to failure, the Wall Street Journal reports (link). Utilities are typically allowed to recoup the cost of capital investments, as well as a rate of return, from customers after receiving regulatory approval. With U.S. electricity customers already facing some of the largest bills in years, analysts said utilities might face pressure from regulators to keep spending in check to reduce the need for further rate increases.

     Meanwhile, states and utilities are looking at placing small nuclear reactors at former coal plants, but the technology and economics remain unproven.

     Power boost

LIVESTOCK, FOOD & BEVERAGE INDUSTRY

— Lucky Charms probe. The Food and Drug Administration is examining reports from more than 100 consumers who told the agency that they got sick after eating Lucky Charms cereal recently.

— USDA confirms HPAI in Pennsylvania commercial flock. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in a commercial layer flock in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. HPAI has now been found in commercial flocks in 15 states.

 

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

Summary: Global cases of Covid-19 are at 504,597,088 with 6,198,694 deaths, according to data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. The U.S. case count is at 80,632,301 with 988,618 deaths. The Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center said that there have been 569,397,972 doses administered, 218,907,165 have been fully vaccinated, or 66.69% of the U.S. population.

— First test that can detect the coronavirus in a breath sample has been authorized for emergency use. The FDA granted the emergency authorization for the InspectIR Covid-19 Breathalyzer, which can produce results in under three minutes and can be used in doctor’s offices, hospitals and testing sites by trained operators. Experts say having more testing options will only help the transition to the endemic phase of the pandemic.

— Starting today, the CDC is changing its Travel Health Notice System for Covid-19 with the biggest impact being that fewer countries will end up classified under the highest level. Countries listed under Level 4 — the highest level — are deemed by the CDC to have a very high level of Covid incidence and should be avoided by all travelers, even if fully vaccinated and boosted. The agency said that Level 4 will be reserved for "special circumstances, such as rapidly escalating case trajectory or extremely high case counts, emergence of a new variant of concern, or healthcare infrastructure collapse."

— Efforts by the World Health Organization to release an estimated global death toll from the coronavirus pandemic have been stymied by India, according to reporting by Devex. More than 15 million people are estimated to have died from the virus, according to the WHO figures. India’s reticence lies in its own contribution to the figure, estimated at around 4 million deaths, far more than the 520,000 in official records. A WHO spokesperson told the New York Times that the report is set to be released this month.

 

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

Republican National Committee voted to require GOP presidential candidates to pledge that they will only appear at party-sanctioned debates. The move comes amid a disagreement between the RNC and the Commission on Presidential Debates following grievances leveled by former President Donald Trump and other Republicans about fairness in moderator selections, changes to formats and other conditions.

— President Joe Biden's polling continues its downward spiral, matching the lowest approval rating of his administration, just seven months before the 2022 midterm elections. Biden's average job approval is 40%, and his disapproval is 52%, according to RealClearPolitics. FiveThirtyEight's averages are slightly better, with 42% approval and 52% disapproval. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has seized on Biden's "catastrophic" Hispanic support, attributing the erosion to his "wasteful" spending proposals and weak immigration policies. Biden has increased his travel this month, visiting Iowa and North Carolina last week, besides a planned New Hampshire trip this week, before the midterm elections.

— The Bidens released their annual tax returns on Friday. Joe and Jill brought in $610,702 in adjusted gross income for 2021: They paid $150,439 in federal income tax (an effective rate of 24.6 percent), $30,765 in Delaware income tax and $2,721 in Virginia income tax. Their income: Biden made $378,333 as president and Jill Biden $67,116 teaching at Northern Virginia Community College. Most of the rest came from pensions and Social Security.

— Pelosi endorses Charlie Crist in his bid to become the Democratic nominee who will challenge Gov. Ron DeSantis this fall. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is backing the three-term congressman, who is in a primary competing with Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried and state Sen. Annette Taddeo.

Former EPA boss Scott Pruitt is running for the U.S. Senate. Pruitt officially filed on Friday to run for the seat currently held by Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.). Inhofe announced earlier this year that he would not run for re-election. It had been previously reported that Pruitt was considering a Senate bid. Pruitt headed EPA until resigning in 2018 amid several ethics controversies. Pruitt will face off against a number of other Republicans in the June 28 primary, including Rep. Markwayne Mullin and Inhofe's longtime chief of staff Luke Holland, whom the senator has backed.

 

CONGRESS

— Punchbowl News: House GOP mulls term limits for all chairs and ranking members. The news service reports: “If House Republicans take the majority, they are considering imposing term limits for committee chairs and ranking members as part of the chamber’s rules package for the 118th Congress. Republicans limit their own members to three consecutive terms atop any committee. Democrats, however, don’t have any term limits. Such a move by Republicans if they take the majority would drastically alter the makeup of the House.”
 

OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE

Twitter unveiled a plan to counter Elon Musk’s takeover bid. It’s called a poison pill: a maneuver to protect companies from corporate raiders. It makes a company less attractive to a potential acquirer by lowering its value. The strategy would flood the market with new shares if Musk, who currently owns more than 9% of Twitter, bought 15% or more — reducing his stake and making it significantly more difficult to buy up a sizable portion of the company. Meanwhile, Musk appeared to hint at a possible tender offer for Twitter (TWTR) in a tweet on Saturday. Musk tweeted Love Me Tender in a cryptic tweet that is not only a famous Elvis Presley song but also may refer to a potential tender offer directly to shareholders he could make for the social media platform that he offered to buy for $43 billion last Thursday.


 

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