Ahead of the Open | April 14, 2022

GRAIN CALLS

Corn: 1 to 4 cents higher.

Soybeans: 3 to 9 cents higher.

Wheat: Winter wheat 3 to 5 cents lower; spring wheat 2 to 5 cents higher.

GENERAL COMMENTS: Nearby corn futures climbed to contract highs overnight and soybean futures also gained, while winter wheat faded from an initial rise to multi-week highs. Malaysian palm oil futures rose 2.6% to the highest level in a month, while Nymex crude oil futures are down around $2. U.S. stock index futures signal a mixed open, while the U.S. dollar index is around 300 points higher this morning.

Government offices are open tomorrow, but markets are closed for Good Friday. As a result, there will be no Pro Farmer updates. We’ll resume our normal market commentary on Monday, April 18.

USDA reported a daily sale of 132,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021-22 marketing year.

Ukraine's corn exports could fall to 17 MMT in 2021-22 following Russia’s invasion, a senior agriculture official said Wednesday, down from 23.1 MMT the previous year. Sunflower oil exports over the same period could drop to 3.4 MMT, down from 5.3 MMT, Deputy Agriculture Minister Roman Rusakov said.

The Biden’s administration’s summer waiver for E15 gasoline is expected to increase U.S. corn demand by 25 million to 45 million bushels, according to initial estimates from some analysts. In states like Iowa and Minnesota, which have increased E15 pumps over recent years, the E15 waiver is positive for ethanol consumption and corn demand. Following the Biden administration’s move, E15 consumption is expected to increase by about 300 million gallons in 2022 from the 814 million gallons of E15 sold in 2021, according to the Renewable Fuels Association.

Texas A&M University economists will soon deliver a report to Congress that will show the surging fertilizer price impact on U.S. farmers is over double the drag estimated in a report late last year. Lawmakers may use the information to decide whether to push a program that would temper some of the price implications.

USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service has confirmed new cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in eight commercial flocks in Nebraska, Minnesota and Wisconsin, bringing the commercial flocks confirmed with HPAI to 121.

Taiwan bought 47,120 MT of U.S. milling wheat. Japan purchased 114,645 MT of milling wheat in its weekly tender, including 61, 620 MT U.S., 22,640 MT Canadian and 30,385 MT Australian. South Korea purchased 69,000 MT of optional origin corn. Jordan tendered to buy 120,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat.

CORN: USDA reported net U.S. corn sales for the week ended April 7 of 1.333 MMT for 2021-22, up 70% from the previous week and up 26% from the average for the previous four weeks. China was a featured buyer at 671,500 MT. For 2022-23, net sales totaled 403,100 MT. Sales were expected to range from 850,000 MT to 1.7 MMT for 2021-22 and 300,000 to 800,000 MT in 2022-23.

May corn futures overnight reached a contract high at $7.89 1/4, up from $7.68 3/4 at the end of last week, while December corn reached $7.39, a contract high for the fifth consecutive day.

SOYBEANS:  Net weekly U.S. soybean sales totaled 548,900 MT for 2021-22, down 31% from the previous week and down 41% from the prior four-week average. China was a featured buyer at 435,500 MT, including 121,000 MT switched from “unknown destinations.” For 2022-23, net sales totaled 458,000 MT. Sales were expected to range from 300,000 MT to 1.0 MMT for 2021-22 and 100,000 to 500,000 MT for 2022-23.

WHEAT: Net weekly wheat sales totaled 96,100 MT for 2021-22, down 39% from the previous week and down 30% from the prior four-week average. For 2022-23, net sales totaled 225,200 MT. Net sales were expected to range from 100,000 to 250,000 MT for 2021-22 and 100,000 to 400,000 MT for 2022-23.

July SRW wheat rose overnight to $11.35 1/4, the highest intraday price since $11.39 3/4 on March 22, before dropping to mild losses. The most-active contract is still up from $10.58 1/4 at the end of last week.

LIVESTOCK CALLS

CATTLE: Steady-firmer

HOGS: Steady-weak

CATTLE: Live cattle futures may extend yesterday’s gains behind strength in the cash trade. Strength in corn futures may pressure feeders. More cash cattle traded at $1 higher prices around $139 in the Southern Plains on Wednesday, while trade in the northern dressed market occurred in the $225 to $227 range, up $2 to 4 from last week. Choice grade cutout values fell $1.11 yesterday to $272.36 but are still near an eight-week high. Movement was strong at 149 loads. USDA reported net weekly beef sales of 17,200 MT for 2022, up 23% from the previous week but down 18% from the prior four-week average.

June live cattle rose 57.5 cents yesterday to $136.875, the highest closing price since March 31. May feeder cattle rose $1.025 to $161.95.

HOGS: Hog futures may face pressure from continued cash fundamental weakness even with the CME lean hog index posting its first gain in nine days. The index is up 9 cents today to $99.19, but it will take multiple days of price gains to signal a low is in place and the index is on its way to a seasonal peak during summer. Selling may be limited by a recent resurgence in wholesale pork, as pork cutout values rose $1.73 yesterday to $108.53, near a three-week high. Movement totaled 256.44 loads.

Net weekly pork sales totaled 24,000 MT for 2022, down 42% from the previous week and down 26% from the prior four-week average.