10:30 Market Snapshot | March 31, 2022

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Corn futures are mildly favoring the upside in light pre-report trade.

  • May corn futures are near unchanged, while new-crop December futures are 4 cents higher as traders await USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks Reports at 11 a.m. CT.
  • Based on the average pre-report estimate from a Reuters survey, corn acreage intentions in today’s Prospective Plantings Report are expected to decline about 1.4 million acres from last year to 92.0 million acres.
  • USDA’s Grain Stocks Report is expected to show March 1 corn stocks at 7.877 billion bu., based on the average pre-report estimate, but the range of estimates is a wide 457 million bushels.  
  • The Biden administration is considering temporarily removing restrictions on summer sales of E15 gasoline as a way to lower fuel costs for U.S. consumers, Reuters reported. It’s unlikely a removal of restrictions would have much impact on ethanol demand or fuel prices.
  • Weekly corn export sales totaled 636,900 MT for 2021-22 and 286,800 MT for 2022-2023. Traders expected old-crop sales between 600,000 MT and 1.1 MMT; new-crop sales between 0 and 300,000 MT.

Soybeans are 1 to 6 cents higher, with soymeal up mostly $1 to $3. Soyoil futures are mildly weaker.

Winter wheat futures are mostly 6 to 8 cents higher. Spring wheat is mostly 11 to 14 cents higher.

  • Wheat futures have traded both sides of unchanged this morning, but are firmer at midmorning as traders await USDA’s report data.
  • USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report is expected to show all wheat acreage intentions at 47.8 million acres, including 34.4 million acres of winter wheat, 11.8 million acres of other spring wheat and 1.7 million acres of durum.
  • March 1 wheat stocks are expected to total 1.045 billion bu., though the range of estimates is a wide 304 million bushels.
  • Export sales activity remains limited for U.S. wheat. Weekly wheat export sales totaled 95,000 MT for 2021-22 and 81,300 MT for 2022-23. Traders expected old-crop sales between 50,000 and 300,000 MT; new-crop sales between 150,000 and 500,000 MT.

Feeder cattle are sharply lower. Live cattle are slightly to moderately lower.  

  • Feeder cattle are being pressured by their premiums to the cash index. Selling in feeders is spilling over to the live cattle market.
  • Some feedlots in the Southern Plains moved cattle at $138 prices on Wednesday, which was steady with last week’s trade in the region. But most feedlots passed on those prices in hopes of higher bids. Cash trade hadn’t started in the northern dressed market, with most feedlots looking for at least $1 higher bids.
  • Boxed beef prices posted strong gains Wednesday, with Choice up $2.04 and Select $2.62 higher, though movement stayed light at only 85 loads. Retailers remain selective buyers of beef.
  • Weekly beef export sales at 23,000 MT were down 76% from the previous week and 39% from the four-week average. China (7,100 MT), Japan (5,300 MT) and South Korea (4,600 MT) were the primary buyers.

Lean hog futures are widely mixed at midmorning.

  • Hog futures opened sharply higher in response to Wednesday’s Hogs & Pigs Report, but to strong open sparked corrective selling in the April through July contracts.
  • USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report yesterday showed herd contraction was greater than expected and producers indicated no signs they will expand anytime soon. USDA estimated the U.S. hog herd at 72.2 million head as of March 1, down 1.7 million head (2.3%) from year-ago and 837,000 head less than the average pre-report estimate implied. The market hog inventory declined 2.4% and the breeding herd dropped 1.9%. That was the smallest March hog herd and market hog inventory since 2018.
  • The CME lean hog index is up another 10 cents today to $103.66. April lean hog futures are trading in line with that level.
  • Weekly pork export sales at 27,600 MT increased 19% from the previous week but were down 14% from the four-week average. Mexico was the lead buyer at 14,300 MT. China bought only a net 600 MT of U.S. pork for the week.

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