H&P Report to show further hog herd contraction

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Analysts expect Wednesday’s Hogs & Pigs Report to show the U.S. hog herd contracted 1.2% from year-ago as of March 1. Based on the average pre-report estimate, the March 1 hog herd is expected to total just over 73 million head, including a market hog inventory of 66.8 million head (down 1.3%) and breeding herd of 6.2 million head (up 0.1%).

 

Average estimate
(% of year-ago)

Range of estimates
(% of year-ago)

All hogs March 1

98.8

97.1-99.5

Kept for breeding

100.1

99.4-100.5

Kept for marketing

98.7

97.2-99.5

 

 

 

Market hog inventory

 

 

  under 50 lbs.

101.1

99.3-103.2

  50 lbs.-119 lbs.

99.5

97.9-101.4

  120 lbs.-179 lbs.

96.5

94.2-98.2

  Over 180 lbs.

97.9

95.6-102.3

 

 

 

Pig crop (Dec.-Feb.)

101.3

100.4-102.6

Pigs per litter (Dec.-Feb.)

101.0

100.2-102.1

Farrowings (Dec.-Feb.)

100.4

100-100.9

Farrowing intentions (March-May)

99.7

99.2-100.5

Farrowing intentions (June-Aug.)

100.6

99.5-101.4


Analysts expect USDA to show the winter pig crop expanded 1.3% from last year amid a 0.4% increase in farrowings and a 1.0% rise in the number of pigs saved per litter. Looking forward, traders expect spring farrowing intentions to be down 0.3%, but to rise 0.6% during the summer months.

 

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