Issues This Week: Biden’s FY 2023 Budget and USTR Tai on Trade Agenda

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Key USDA reports this week: Hogs & Pigs report, Prospective Plantings, Grain Stocks

 


Washington Focus


Both chambers are back in session this week. President Joe Biden sends his budget up to Capitol Hill on Monday and the late Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska) will lie in state in Statuary Hall on Tuesday. Young died March 18.

Biden’s budget will propose the first 20% minimum tax on households worth over $100 million, plus a plan to cut over $1 trillion from spending deficits within 10 years, and to cut projected budget deficits by over $1 trillion in the next decade, according to information released Saturday by the White House budget office.

      It would apply to the top 0.01% of households, with half of the expected revenue coming from those worth $1 billion or more.

     Newly confirmed OMB Director Shalanda Young will brief the House and Senate Budget committees on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Fiscal Year 2023 begins Oct. 1; Congress just got FY 2022 funding settled.

The Senate Judiciary Committee will consider the nomination of Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court. Jackson's confirmation hearings concluded last week. Republicans are expected to request a one-week delay, pushing the vote to April 4. The committee chair, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), has already announced that he would accept the request.

The House will vote on a bill to decriminalize marijuana at the federal level and expunge convictions for non-violent offenders. The House Rules Committee will meet Monday on a bill (HR 3617) to decriminalize cannabis, impose a tax on cannabis products, and aid cannabis businesses.

On Monday, the Senate could get closer to a conference on the China competition legislation. Senators are scheduled to vote at 5:30 p.m. ET on whether to invoke cloture, or limit debate, on the chamber’s substitute amendment to the House-passed America COMPETES Act (HR 4521), which would swap in the Senate’s version (S 1260) known as the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act. If cloture is invoked on the substitute, it will be adopted, and the chamber will vote on passing the bill as amended.

     Details: Both bills would boost technological innovation and provide $52 billion for domestic manufacturing of computer chips. Passing the House bill with the Senate’s language will allow both chambers to set up a formal conference that hashes out a single bill both chambers would then need to pass.

Getting an Ocean Shipping Reform Act approved is taking as long as, well, getting a big ship turned around. The general ag media is excited about a lot of things, and they are giddy about this measure.

     Some details: The Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee last Tuesday approved the legislation to address supply chain issues and shipping port disruptions. The bill now moves to the full Senate; the House approved a similar measure late last year. A big issue facing cargo owners and other supply chain stakeholders is detention and demurrage fees charged by shipping ports, terminal operators and common carriers on exporters and importers. S 3580, among other actions, would formalize a Federal Maritime Commission interpretive rule on detention and demurrage charges and define the parameters for using them. Another provision would require greater transparency of shippers on export bookings, including reasons for declining or canceling bookings.

On the new farm bill front, a House Ag subcommittee on Tuesday will look at horticulture and urban agriculture — a favorite topic of Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.). During the last farm bill, then panel leader, moderate Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), gave Stabenow billions of dollars for her favorite issues, his apparent way of seeking harmony and getting a lot of votes for the final bill.

Nominations. Action on two nominations this week will take place after Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) filed for cloture, seeking to limit debate on: Nani A. Coloretti to be deputy director of the Office of Management and Budget, and C.S. Eliot Kang to be assistant secretary of State for International Security and Non-Proliferation.

     President Joe Biden’s four remaining Federal Reserve picks could be considered on the floor early this week, Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Chair Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) told Bloomberg TV.  But that would likely require unanimous consent to schedule most of the votes, which would include a motion to discharge Lisa Cook, whose committee vote was tied. The nominations of Jerome Powell to a second term as Fed chair, Lael Brainard as vice chair, and Philip Jefferson as a governor had some GOP support.

U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai will headline two days of congressional testimony. She's scheduled to discuss the Biden administration's 2022 trade policy agenda before the House Ways and Means Committee at 10 a.m. ET on Wednesday and before the Senate Finance Committee at 10 a.m. ET on Thursday. In the past, Tai has presented generalities rather than a clear vision of the Biden trade policy.

     Tai last week announced a pact to lift U.S. tariffs on U.K. steel and aluminum while the British would scrap tariffs on American whiskey, motorcycles and tobacco. The administration also renewed tariff waivers on hundreds of Chinese imports.

     The hearing will be live streamed on the committee’s website (link).

CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will appear before the House Agriculture Committee on Thursday morning, testifying on the state of the agency. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has been a two-commissioner operation for months, with just Behnam and outgoing Republican Dawn Stump occupying seats. But that's about to change soon, with nominees Kristin Johnson, Summer Mersinger, Caroline Pham and Christy Goldsmith Romero headed for full Senate consideration after passing through the Agriculture panel on a bipartisan basis.

Russia sanctions measures also could come to the Senate floor after there were objections to quick action last week on House-passed measures to suspend normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus (HR 7108) and ban the importation of Russian oil (HR 6968).

     Action on both bills was delayed after Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) raised objections to language that would extend and expand the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act, named for a Russian lawyer who died in custody after investigating tax fraud. That provision would authorize the Biden administration to impose further sanctions on Russian officials for human rights violations.

Fortenberry resigns from Congress after felony convictions. Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-Neb.) announced he is resigning from Congress after being convicted of three felonies related to a federal probe of illegal campaign contributions.

     His decision, announced after he returned to his home state, came after top House leaders prodded him to end his nine-term career in the lower chamber following the guilty findings Thursday night by a jury in Los Angeles. “Due to the difficulties of my current circumstances, I can no longer serve you effectively. I will resign from Congress shortly,” Fortenberry said in a statement.

Prop 12 and the Supreme Court… again. We could know Monday whether the Supreme Court agreed to hear a petition by the National Pork Producers Council and Farm Bureau seeking review of the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals decision on California’s Prop 12. If you have heard this before, you have… now eight times.

On the international front, Alphabet Inc. Chief Executive Sundar Pichai will meet with the European Commissioner of Competition Margrethe Vestager on Wednesday to discuss antitrust and competition issues. The meeting comes after negotiators for the European Parliament and the European Council reached an agreement on the Digital Markets Act, legislation that Andreas Schwab, a lead Member of the European Parliament, said would end the "ever-increasing dominance of Big Tech companies" like Alphabet, Amazon.com Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc.

Russia/Ukraine update: Biden is not calling for Russian regime change, White House clarifies.

  • Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. is not seeking Russian regime change, after President Biden apparently called for his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to be ousted. Biden on Saturday condemned Russia’s Putin, saying “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power,” in remarks that drew condemnation from Moscow. Blinken said that “the president, the White House, made the point that, quite simply, President Putin cannot be empowered to wage war or engage in aggression against Ukraine or anyone else.” The White House said that “the president’s point was that Putin cannot be allowed to exercise power over his neighbors or the region,” rather than a plan for regime change.
  • French president Emmanuel Macron said he would not echo Biden’s words and that efforts should be made not to worsen the situation, adding that he aimed to continue to talk to Putin to bring about a ceasefire. “I think we need to be factual and do everything not to allow the situation to spiral,” Macron told France 3 TV. “I will not make those kind of comments… We shouldn’t be in an escalation of words or actions.”
  • Britain said it was not pushing for regime change and believed Putin should be offered an “off ramp” from the war. “It’s good in principle to incentivize good behavior, not encourage worse behavior by suggesting there is nothing left to lose,” said one senior British official.
  • Ukraine has reclaimed several villages from Russian forces in a series of counterattacks, including to the east of Kharkiv and northwest of Mariupol, after Russian missiles struck the western city of Lviv.

 


Events of Note on Tap This Week


Monday, March 28

FY 2023 budget plan. The U.S. Government Publishing Office (GPO) and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) release President Biden's FY 2023 Budget. Several cabinet agencies typically will hold briefings on their portion of the FY 2023 budget plan.

Russian invasion of Ukraine: Belarussian opposition views. Washington Post Live virtual discussion with Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya on “the current political dynamic in Belarus and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.”

Russian invasion of Ukraine: Freedom issues. Hudson Institute virtual discussion on “Freedom Over Tyranny,” focusing on the situation in Ukraine.

Russian invasion of Ukraine: Diplomacy. Institute for Policy Studies virtual discussion on “How Do We Support Diplomacy in Ukraine?”

Russian invasion of Ukraine: nuclear issues. American Physical Society's Physicists Coalition for Nuclear Threat Reduction nline discussion on “The Nuclear Dimensions of the War in Ukraine.”

Russian invasion of Ukraine: Western sanctions. Washington Post Live virtual discussion on Western sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and additional steps to boost Ukraine, including lethal aid.

FY 2023 budget. HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra news conference to present the president's Health and Human Services Department budget for FY 2023.

U.S. wheat role in the world. Woodrow Wilson Center's History and Public Policy Program virtual book discussion on “Oceans of Grain: How American Wheat Remade the World.”

Auto industry and computer chips. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Surface Transportation, Maritime, Freight, and Ports Subcommittee field hearing on “Made in America: The Future of Automotive Innovation and Semiconductor Chips.”

Tax issues. American Bar Association virtual 22nd annual U.S. and Europe Tax Practice Trends conference, including a session on cryptocurrencies.

U.S., EU and NATO. Woodrow Wilson Center's Global Europe Program virtual discussion on “The European Union, U.S. and NATO: Partners for Global Security.”

Supreme Court nominee vote. Senate Judiciary Committee markup to vote on the nominations of Ketanji Brown Jackson to be an associate justice of the Supreme Court of the United States and other lower-level judges.

Democrats’ 2024 presidential nominating rules. Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee virtual meeting “to continue the process of considering the 2024 presidential nominating rules.”

• Organic Week in Washington, through Wednesday.

• Supreme Court. Brookings Institution webinar on the future of regulation at the Supreme Court.

Tuesday, March 29

Federal Reserve. New York Fed President John Williams, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic scheduled to speak.

FY 2023 budget. House Budget Committee hearing on “President Biden's FY 2023 Budget” with OMB Director Shalanda Young.

USDA OIG oversight. House Appropriations Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “Oversight: Office of Inspector General, USDA,” With USDA IG Phyllis Fong.

Farm bill hearing – Horticulture and urban agriculture. House Agriculture Biotechnology, Horticulture and Research Subcommittee of House Agriculture Committee hearing on “A 2022 Review of the Farm Bill: Horticulture and Urban Agriculture.”

Honoring Rep. Don Young. U.S. Congress holds events to honor the late Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska) the dean of the House and longest-serving Republican representative.

Russian invasion of Ukraine: Impacts on European security. Atlantic Council virtual discussion with the Baltic presidents on “the implications of the Russian-initiated war in Ukraine on European security and NATO's adaptation.”

Russian invasion of Ukraine: China influence. Heritage Foundation discussion on “Putin's War and the Threat from Communist China.” With Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.)

Russian invasion of Ukraine: Impacts on France. German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion on “Propaganda, Politics, and War: Information Manipulation in France's Presidential Election,” focusing on “how Russia and other states use media outlets to shift public debate in France in a way that supports their geopolitical objectives.”

Russian invasion of Ukraine. Institute of World Politics virtual discussion on “Russia's War on Ukraine.”

Russian invasion of Ukraine: EU views. Washington Post Live online discussion with the European Union's Ambassador to the United States Stavros Lambrinidis, on “the military, economic and humanitarian measures being taken by the EU to help the people of Ukraine, while punishing Russia for its aggression.”

U.S./China relations. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “The past, present, and future of U.S./China relations.”

Electricity markets. Electric Power Supply Association 2022 Competitive Power Summit, including discussions on “Addressing Reliability in a Changing Grid” and “Advancing Decarbonization”

Universal health coverage. House Oversight and Reform Committee hearing on “Examining Pathways to Universal Health Coverage.”

Small business lending. House Small Business Economic Growth, Tax and Capital Access Subcommittee hearing on “Catalyzing Economic Growth through SBA (Small Business Administration) Community-Based Lending.”

FBI oversight. House Judiciary Committee hearing on “Oversight of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Cyber Division.”

FOIA. Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on “The Freedom of Information Act: Improving Transparency and the American Public's Right to Know for the 21st Century.”

Natural gas and net zero. Bipartisan Policy Center virtual discussion on “Leveraging Natural Gas Networks to Achieve Net-Zero.”

Drinking water infrastructure. House Energy and Commerce Environment and Climate Change Subcommittee hearing on “Trusting the Tap: Upgrading America's Drinking Water Infrastructure.”

Cryptocurrencies. Washington Post Live virtual discussion on “The Evolution of Money: Cryptocurrency.”

Administration appointments. Administrative Conference of the United States and the National Academy of Public Administration hold a virtual forum on “Advice and Consent: Problems and Reform in the Senate Confirmation of Executive Branch Appointees.”

Electric and autonomous vehicles. The Hill holds virtual discussion on “Driving Tomorrow: EV's (electric vehicles) and AV's (autonomous vehicles).”

EXIM Bank meeting. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) virtual meeting to discuss EXIM policies and programs to provide competitive financing to expand United States exports and comments for inclusion in EXIM's Report to the U.S. Congress on Global Export Credit Competition.

• Regulations. Environmental Law Institute webinar on the use of data analytics in environmental compliance and enforcement.

Wednesday, March 30

Federal Reserve. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin scheduled to speak.

Biden trade agenda. House Ways and Means Committee hearing on the “Biden Administration's 2022 Trade Policy Agenda,” with U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai.

Biden FY 2023 budget. Senate Budget Committee hearing on “The President's FY 2023 Budget Proposal,” with Office of Management Budget Director Shalanda Young.

Russian invasion of Ukraine: Implications for U.S. in Indo Pacific. House Foreign Affairs Asia, the Pacific, Central Asia and Nonproliferation Subcommittee hearing on “Implications of the Ukraine Crisis for U.S. Policy in the Indo Pacific.”

Russian invasion of Ukraine: MENA food security impacts. Middle East Institute virtual discussion on “Impacts of Russia/Ukraine Crisis on North Africa's Food and Energy Security.”

Russian invasion of Ukraine: U.S. national security challenges. House Armed Services Committee hearing on “National Security Challenges and US Military Activity in Europe.”

Russian invasion of Ukraine: Wartime reporting. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace online event on “Carnegie Connects: A Conversation on the War in Ukraine,” to discuss the war in Ukraine and the challenges of wartime reporting.

Russian invasion of Ukraine: Why Ukraine matters. Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies online discussion on “Russia Europe Eurasia Seminar — Why Ukraine Matters II.”

Covid. House Oversight and Reform Coronavirus Crisis Subcommittee hearing on “Moving Beyond the Coronavirus Crisis: The Biden Administration's Progress in Combating the Pandemic and Plan for the Next Phase.”

USAID. U.S. Agency for International Development's (USAID) Marketlinks virtual discussion on “Improving the Global Care Economy to Accelerate Gender Equality and Economic Growth.”

Markets and foreign aid. Society for International Development, Washington, DC Chapter online discussion of “States, Markets, and Foreign Aid,” focusing on two models of foreign aid, the bypass model and the government engagement model.

Supreme court nominee process. Washington Post Live virtual discussion on the confirmation process for Supreme Court justice nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson.

Defense Production Act. Federal Emergency Management Agency meeting under the Pandemic Response Voluntary Agreement Under Section 708 of the Defense Production Act to establish a national strategy for the coordination of national multimodal healthcare supply chains to respond to Covid-19, to implement the Voluntary Agreement for the manufacture and distribution of critical healthcare resources necessary to respond to a pandemic.

Inflation and trade. Peterson Institute for International Economics online discussion on “For inflation relief, the United States should look to trade liberalization.”

State-level carbon pricing. Urban Institute's and The Brookings Institution's Tax Policy Center virtual discussion on “Can State-Level Carbon Pricing Help Achieve National Climate Goals?”

Supply chains and small businesses. Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee hearing on “The Supply Chain Crisis and the Implications for Small Businesses.”

Stock exchange oversight. House Financial Services Investor Protection, Entrepreneurship, and Capital Markets Subcommittee hearing on “Oversight of America's Stock Exchanges: Examining Their Role in Our Economy.”

Fed policy. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion on “The Federal Reserve and the everything bubble.”

Blockchain and cryptocurrencies. Bipartisan Policy Center virtual discussion on “What You Should Know About Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies.”

Russian cyberthreats. House Homeland Security Cybersecurity, Infrastructure Protection and Innovation Subcommittee hearing on “Mobilizing our Cyber Defenses: Securing Critical Infrastructure Against Russian Cyber Threats.”

Iran nuclear deal. House Foreign Affairs Committee Republicans news conference on the Iran nuclear deal.

• Regulations. Resources for the Future event on using retrospective analysis to improve federal environmental regulations.

Thursday, March 31

Federal Reserve. New York Fed President John Williams scheduled to speak.

Biden trade policy. Senate Finance Committee hearing on “The President's 2022 Trade Policy Agenda,” with U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai.

State of the CFTC. House Agriculture Committee hearing on the “State of the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission).”

Russian invasion of Ukraine: Russian sanctions. Washington International Trade Association virtual discussion on “Russia Sanctions and the New World Disorder.”

Russian invasion of Ukraine: Mideast impacts. Arab Center virtual discussion on “Russia's War in Ukraine and Its Impact on the Middle East.”

Russian invasion of Ukraine: Indo Pacific impacts. Woodrow Wilson Center's Asia Program virtual discussion on “Indo-Pacific Responses to Ukraine.”

FY 2023 budget: HHS. House Appropriations Labor, Health and Human Services, Education and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “FY 2023 Budget Request for the Department of Health and Human Services,” with HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra.

Domestic critical mineral supplies. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing on “Domestic Critical Mineral Supply Chains.”

McConnell views on the economy, legislation and 2022 elections. PunchBowl News discussion with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on the economy, the politics of legislating and the 2022 elections.

Improper payments. House Oversight and Reform Government Operations Subcommittee hearing on “Follow the Money: Tackling Improper Payments.”

SEC and fraud. Securities and Exchange Commission virtual discussion on “Safeguarding the Golden Years: Avoiding Financial Fraud.”

Pandemic recovery and climate change. American Society of International Law virtual discussion on “Post-Pandemic Recovery in the Era of Sovereign Debt Distress and Climate Change,” part of the “Global Engagement” series.

Next phase of Covid-19. House Science, Space and Technology Investigations and Oversight Subcommittee hearing on “The New Normal: Preparing for and Adapting to the Next Phase of Covid-19.”

China and Latin America/Caribbean. Senate Foreign Relations Western Hemisphere, Transnational Crime, Civilian Security, Democracy, Human Rights, and Global Women's Issues Subcommittee hearing on “China's Role in Latin America and the Caribbean.”

FCC oversight. House Energy and Commerce Communications and Technology Subcommittee hearing on “Connecting America: Oversight of the FCC,” with FCC commissioners.

U.S./Mexico issues. International Institute for Strategic Studies discussion with Mexican Ambassador to the United States Esteban Moctezuma Barragan.

Energy transition issues. Atlantic Council, the Energy Department, and the Embassy of Sweden virtual discussion for the launch of “The Sweden/U.S. Green Transition Initiative: Innovation and Cooperation Driving the Energy Transition.”

Renewable energy. International Trade Administration virtual meeting of the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Advisory Committee.

Labor market issues. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “Labor Market Tightness in Advanced Economies.”

Cybersecurity. Homeland Security Department teleconference of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Cybersecurity Advisory Committee to hear updates and discuss progress as it relates to its six subcommittees

U.S./Japan issues. Washington Diplomat discussion with Japanese Ambassador to the United States Koji Tomita on “the latest development in the region and Japan/U.S. relations,” as part of the Ambassador Insider series.

Economic reports. Jobless Claims | Personal Income and Outlays | Chicago PMI

Friday, April 1

Federal Reserve. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans scheduled to speak.

Russian invasion of Ukraine: Black Sea security. Middle East Institute virtual discussion on “Russia's Invasion of Ukraine and Implications for Black Sea Security.”

Russian invasion of Ukraine: View from Kyiv. American Security Project virtual discussion on “A View From Kyiv.”

Climate and ecosystems. House Select Climate Crisis Committee hearing on “America's Natural Solutions: The Climate Benefits of Investing in Healthy Ecosystems.”

Global marine transport and cyber threats. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “Protecting the global marine transportation system against cyber threats.”

Regulators and mergers. Information Technology and Innovation Foundation virtual discussion on “The Regulatory Revolution Against Mergers,” as part of the Dynamic Antitrust series.

Energy loan program. NDN virtual discussion with Jigar Shah, director of the Department of Energy Loans Program Office, focusing on financing tech innovations to accelerate the energy revolution.
 


Economic Reports for the Week


On the economic calendar, the U.S. jobs report for March will be released on Friday with economists forecasting a gain of 450,000 jobs to follow on last month's blowout mark of 678,000. The unemployment rate is seen dropping to 3.7%. Average hourly earnings are expected to be 0.4% higher month-over-month and 5.4% higher year-over-year (still below the rate of inflation).
 

     OPEC+ will hold a virtual meeting during which the group is expected to keep current production plans in place even with crude oil prices trading at a 14-year high. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Council is hosting its 2022 Global Energy Forum through Tuesday. The forum is focusing on the geopolitics of the energy transition. The speakers include top oil and gas officials such as OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, and current and former U.S. agency officials like Amos Hochstein, the Biden administration's special envoy and coordinator for international energy affairs, former Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette and former FERC Chair Neil Chatterjee.

     Econ Rpts 032822

Monday, March 28

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas releases the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for March. The consensus estimate is for a 12.5 reading, 1.5 points fewer than in February. The index has had a positive reading every month since July 2020, showing growth in the region’s manufacturing sector. 
  • Feb. International Trade in Goods
  • Feb. Wholesale Inventories

Tuesday, March 29

  • Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Expectations are that there were 11.3 million job openings on February’s last business day, roughly even with January’s total. Unfilled jobs remain near record levels in an extremely tight labor market.
  • S&P CoreLogic releases the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for January. Home prices are projected to have risen 18.8%, year over year, matching December’s increase. In 2021, homeowners enjoyed the largest appreciation in the 34 years in which the data have been collected—led by Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami, all with prices up by 27% or more. 
  • Jan. FHFA House Price Index
  • Mar. Consumer Confidence
  • Federal Reserve. New York Fed President John Williams, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic scheduled to speak.

Wednesday, March 30

  • MBA Mortgage Applications
  • ADP releases its National Employment Report for March. Consensus estimate is for a gain of 400,000 jobs in private-sector employment. Private-sector employment still lags behind prepandemic levels by three million.
  • Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports its final estimate for fourth-quarter gross-domestic-product growth. Economists forecast that GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7%, unchanged from the BEA’s second estimate.
  • Federal Reserve. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin scheduled to speak.

Thursday, March 31

  • Jobless Claims
  • Institute for Supply Management releases its Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. Expectations are for a 56.5 reading, roughly even with the February figure.
  • BEA reports on personal income and expenditure for February. Income is projected to have increased by 0.6%, month over month, while spending is expected to have risen by 0.3%. This compares with a flat reading and 2.1% rise, respectively, in January.
  • Feb. Core PCE Price Index
  • Fed Balance Sheet
  • Money Supply  
  • Federal Reserve. New York Fed President John Williams scheduled to speak.

Friday, April 1

  • BLS releases the jobs report for March. Economists forecast a gain of 450,000 in nonfarm payrolls, compared with 678,000 in February. The unemployment rate is seen edging lower to 3.7%, from 3.8%. The previous two releases saw a combined upside surprise to the consensus of 633,000 additional jobs, as the jobless rate nears the February 2020 level of 3.5% which matched a half-century low.
  • Mar. PMI Manufacturing Index
  • Mar. ISM Manufacturing Index
  • Feb. Construction Spending
  • Federal Reserve. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans scheduled to speak.
     

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events 


Key USDA reports this week: Wednesday brings Hogs & Pigs and Thursday brings Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks. And for southern readers: Rice Stocks.

Monday, March 28

     Ag reports and events:

  • Export Inspections  

Tuesday, March 29

     Ag reports and events:

  • State Stories
  • Livestock and Meat Domestic Data
  • Egg Products
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Vietnam’s General Statistics Department releases March export data for coffee, rice and rubber

     Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report

Wednesday, March 30

     Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • Hogs & Pigs
  • Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
  • Genscape weekly crude inventory report for Europe’s ARA region

Thursday, March 31

     Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • Grain Stocks
  • Prospective Plantings
  • Rice Stocks
  • Rice Yearbook
  • Agricultural Prices
  • Malaysia’s March palm oil export data

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • OPEC+ meeting, virtually
  • EIA releases Petroleum Supply Monthly
  • Russian weekly refinery outage data from ministry
  • Insights Global weekly oil product inventories in Europe’s ARA region

Friday, April 1

     Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC Commitments of Traders report
  • Peanut Prices
  • Cotton System Consumption and Stocks
  • Dairy Products
  • Fats & Oils: Oilseed Crushings, Production, Consumption and Stocks
  • Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production
  • FranceAgriMer weekly update on crop conditions

     Energy reports and events:

  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts

 

 

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