USDA Will Likely Again Boost Food Price Forecasts This Friday

Fed speakers galore this week, including chairman Powell | SCOTUS hearings

Washington Focus

The Senate convenes and the House is in recess.

SCOTUS hearings. The Senate Judiciary Committee will begin hearings for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson’s nomination to the Supreme Court. For her nomination as the first Black woman on the nation's highest court, Jackson will be formally introduced during televised hearings, followed by two days of questioning and one day of testimony from additional witnesses. Democratic leaders have set a goal of reaching a final Senate vote by April 8.

President Biden on Thursday meets with NATO and EU leaders to discuss Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The two-day summit will be held at NATO headquarters in Brussels. Biden will also join a European Council meeting, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said. The trip comes weeks after Russia launched its attack on Ukraine. During the summit, Biden will "discuss ongoing deterrence and defense efforts" and reaffirm the United States’ commitment to its NATO allies, Psaki said.

March 22 is National Ag Day. It will be hosted by the Agriculture Council of America and sponsored by dozens of agricultural groups. Ag Day this year will focus on “Growing a Climate for Tomorrow,” highlighting farmers’ efforts to protect the environment. The Celebration of Modern Agriculture on the National Mall, which runs March 21-22, will be live.

Biden budget out March 28. President Biden will send his budget request for fiscal year (FY) 2023 to Congress on March 28, a senior White House official said, as the administration seeks more assistance to Ukraine and funds to combat the pandemic. The document will outline how the president want to enact some of his top priorities and his administration’s spending requests across the government. It will offer a glimpse at how the administration expects to spend money for priorities including aid to Ukraine and the continuing effort to fight the coronavirus pandemic, as well as legislative proposals such as increased funding for community policing programs, cancer research, and mental health education. It will also provide economic projections as the nation enters what Biden has labeled a new phase of the coronavirus response and grapples with high inflation.

Reports note the budget request includes proposed changes to the corporate and individual tax codes sought by the Biden administration. The annual request is aspirational, meant to guide Congress as it kicks off negotiations over tax and spending legislation. And expect lawmakers to take way too long to enact a FY 2023 spending plan. They recently completed the measure for FY 2022 and were nearly six months tardy.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will continue to grab Washington’s focus. On Friday, President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping held a nearly two-hour virtual talk. Jinping assured Biden that his country didn’t want war in Ukraine. Xi lamented the state of the world, according to his government’s statement, observing that “the prevailing trend of peace and development is facing serious challenges” and “the world is neither tranquil nor stable.” But he criticized Western sanctions against Russia, saying that “the ordinary people are the ones who suffer,” China’s Foreign Ministry quoted Xi as saying. If escalated, “it will also trigger a serious crisis in global trade and economy, finance, energy, food, industrial supply chain, etc., which will add to the already difficult world economy and cause irreparable damage.”

Events of Note

Monday, March 21

• Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to address the National Association for Business Economics; Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic scheduled to speak.

• Russian invasion of Ukraine: China’s role. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion on “China's Gambit in Ukraine.”

• Russian invasion of Ukraine: perspective from Kyiv. Washington Post Live \ virtual discussion with Kyiv, Ukraine Mayor Vitali Klitschko and his brother Wladimir Klitschko, member of the Kyiv Territorial Defense, on “ongoing efforts to maintain control of the city, the latest news from on the ground and their vision for the future of Ukraine.”

• Russian invasion of Ukraine. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “The Free World rallies behind Ukraine — will it be enough?”

• Supreme Court nominee hearing. Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on the nomination of Ketanji Brown Jackson to serve as an associate justice on the Supreme Court of the United States.

• U.S. economic and monetary policy. National Association for Business Economics holds its 38th annual economic policy conference on “Policy Options for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth,” with remarks from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and Cecilia Rouse, chair of the President's Council of Economic Advisers.

• ASEAN meeting. United States Institute of Peace virtual discussion on “Previewing the US-ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Summit: What to Expect from the Special Meeting of ASEAN and U.S. Leaders.”

• State issues. Route Fifty virtual summit on “State of the States: State Governments are Getting a Shakeup.”

• U.S. energy production. Hudson Institute virtual discussion on “The Future of U.S. Energy Production.”

• Supply chain issues. World Trade Organization (WTO) virtual discussion on “Easing supply chain bottlenecks for a sustainable future.”

• FTC rulemaking. Information Technology and Innovation Foundation virtual discussion on “The FTC Rulemaking Agenda — Dwindled Innovation Through Regulation?” as part of the Dynamic Antitrust series.

Tuesday, March 22

• National Ag Day.

Federal Reserve. New York Fed President John Williams scheduled to speak.

• Russian invasion of Ukraine: war impacts. Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion, on “Senior Leaders' Perspective on War in Ukraine.”

• Russian invasion of Ukraine: first 30 days. American Society of International Law virtual discussion on the significance of the events that unfolded in the first 30 days of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and possible ways forward for affected populations, individual countries and the international order.

• Russian invasion of Ukraine: influence on the global economy. Foreign Policy virtual discussion on “the global economic outlook, how the war in Ukraine is fueling inflation, and the world's post-pandemic recovery.”

• Russia invasion of Ukraine: western response. German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion on “France and the Western Response to Russia's War on Ukraine.”

• Russian invasion of Ukraine: Taiwan parallels. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “Ukraine and Taiwan: Parallels and Early Lessons Learned.”

• Russian invasion of Ukraine: U.K., U.S. cooperation. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “Capitalizing on Cooperation” with U.K. Minister for Defense Procurement Jeremy Quin, examining how “a united response to the invasion of Ukraine is transforming European security policy.”

• Russian invasion of Ukraine: Bolstering Ukraine defenses. Washington Post Live virtual discussion with Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) on “the Russian invasion and what the United States and other Western nations need to do to bolster Ukrainian defenses.”

• Rural health care. Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee hearing on “Rural Quality of Life: Opportunities and Challenges for the Rural Care Economy,” with USDA Undersecretary for Rural Development Xochitl Torres Small.

• US economic issues. National Association for Business Economics (NABE) 38th annual economic policy conference on “Policy Options for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth,” with remarks from Charlie Cook, founder of the Cook Political Report, and Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England.

• Monetary policy and banking issues. The Bank for International Settlements Innovation Hub virtual 2022 Innovation Summit focusing on “Money and Payments,” including remarks from New York Fed President John Williams and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.

• Supreme Court nominee hearing. Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on the nomination of Ketanji Brown Jackson to serve as an associate justice on the Supreme Court of the United States.

• U.S./Korea relations. George Washington University Institute for Korean Studies virtual Korea Policy Forum with two South Korean journalists and two U.S. journalists on “The New Yoon Administration and U.S./Republic of Korea Relations.”

• Japan foreign policy. Center for American Progress virtual discussion on “Toward a More Balanced Foreign Policy for Japan.”

• Iranian missile threat. International Institute for Strategic Studies discussion on “Addressing the Iranian missile threat: Approaches to risk reduction and arms control.”

• Supply issues. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on “Building a Resilient Economy: Shoring Up Supply.”

• Water policy. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion on “Water War: How a Life-Sustaining Resource Goes Geopolitical.”

• Covid economic recovery. Hamilton Project virtual discussion on “Tracking the Recovery from the Covid-19 Recession.”

• Fauci Covid expectations. Washington Post Live virtual discussion with National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci, on “the latest developments in the coronavirus pandemic and the future course of the virus.”

• Climate change and the Supreme Court. Resources for the Future virtual discussion on “Climate Change and the Supreme Court.”

Wednesday, March 23

• Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to deliver remarks to the Bank for International Settlements virtual Innovation Summit 2022; San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly scheduled to speak.

• Monetary policy and banking issues. Final day of the Bank for International Settlements Innovation Hub virtual 2022 Innovation Summit focusing on “Technology and Innovation,” with Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell; Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England; and Joachim Nagel, president of the Deutsche Bundesbank, holding a discussion on “Emerging challenges for central bank governors in a digital world.”

• Russian invasion of Ukraine: impact on financial sector. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “How Russia's war in Ukraine affects the financial sector.”

• Russian invasion of Ukraine: postwar prospects. Georgetown University's Berkley Center for Religion, Peace and World Affairs virtual discussion on “Pondering the Nuclear Posture Review After Ukraine.”

• Russian invasion of Ukraine: Europe security. Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security virtual discussion on “Future Foreign Policy: What Russia's war means for European defense.”

• Russian invasion of Ukraine: Containing Russia. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe hearing on “Containing Russia: Opposing Russian Imperialism in Ukraine and Beyond.”

• Supreme Court nominee hearing. Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on the nomination of Ketanji Brown Jackson to serve as an associate justice on the Supreme Court of the United States.

• Agriculture issues in Thailand/Asia. Business Council for International Understanding virtual discussion with Kelly Strange, USDA Regional Agriculture Counselor to Thailand.

• Global energy meeting. International Energy Agency 2022 IEA Ministerial meeting with the theme “The Year of Implementation: Accelerating Global Action on Clean Energy and Energy Security,” with remarks from Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm; and IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol; runs through Thursday.

• Energy’s role in climate solutions. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing on “Promoting American Energy Security by Facilitating Investments and Innovation in Climate Solutions.”

• Semiconductor production. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing on “Developing Next Generation Technology for Innovation.”

• Urban agriculture. Natural Resources Conservation Service virtual meeting of the Urban Agriculture and Innovative Production Advisory Committee for consultation on the National Institute of Food and Agriculture's Notice of Funding Opportunity for the Urban, Indoor and Emerging Agriculture grant; runs through Thursday.

• Zero emission power. Foreign Policy webinar on “Toward Zero-Emission Power.”

• Cyber threats. Information Technology Industry Council virtual discussion on “Security in the Face of Rapidly Evolving Cyber Threats.”

• Trade issues. Washington International Trade Association and the George Washington University Institute for International Economic Policy discussion on “Trade Links: New Rules for a New World.”

Thursday, March 24

• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Christopher Waller to deliver remarks to a Tel Aviv University and Rutgers University Webinar; Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic scheduled to speak.

• Russian invasion of Ukraine: nuclear possibilities. Washington Post Live virtual discussion with International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi on the “specter of a nuclear incident in Europe” as a consequence of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

• Russian invasion of Ukraine: update. Center for Strategic and International Studies media conference call briefing on “Ukraine Update.”

• Russian invasion of Ukraine: cyberattacks. Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Indiana Chapter virtual discussion on “the cyber-attacks hitting Ukraine.”

• Food price inflation at grocery stores. Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies virtual discussion on “Where's the Beef? Inflation at the Grocery Store and Proposed Regulatory Responses.”

• CODEX meeting preparations. USDA’s U.S. Codex office virtual meeting of the Codex Alimentarius Commission (CAC), including matters referred to the Committee by the CAC and other Codex Subsidiary Bodies, and other international organizations on the standardization of fresh fruits and vegetables; proposed draft standard for onions and shallots, berry fruits, and fresh dates; discussion paper on glossary of terms used in the layout for Codex standards for fresh fruits and vegetables; and consideration of the proposals for new work.

• Renewable energy. American Council on Renewable Energy 2022 Policy Forum with leaders from across government and the renewable energy industry, with remarks from EPA Administrator Michael Regan and White House National Climate Adviser Gina McCarthy.

• Energy issues. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol news conference as part of the International Energy Agency (IEA) 2022 IEA Ministerial meeting with the theme “The Year of Implementation: Accelerating Global Action on Clean Energy and Energy Security.”

• Supreme Court nominee hearing. Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on the nomination of Ketanji Brown Jackson to serve as an associate justice on the Supreme Court of the United States.

• U.S./Korea relations. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “The U.S./Republic of Korea Alliance.”

• Urban agriculture. Final day of the Natural Resources Conservation Service virtual meeting of the Urban Agriculture and Innovative Production Advisory Committee for consultation on the National Institute of Food and Agriculture's Notice of Funding Opportunity for the Urban, Indoor and Emerging Agriculture grant.

• Monetary policy issues. Brookings Institution virtual Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Spring 2022 Conference on “the most urgent economic challenges of the day.”

• Foreign policy issues. Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies' Kissinger Center for Global Affairs virtual workshop on “Europe, Japan, and the United States in a Changing World;” runs through Friday.

Friday, March 25

• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Christopher Waller at the Virtual Seminar Series on Central Banking and Digital Currencies; New York Fed President John Williams scheduled to speak.

• Russian invasion of Ukraine: Perspectives from Latvia. Washington Post Live virtual discussion with Latvian President Egils Levits on “what is at stake for his country and how the West should respond as Russian forces advance into Ukrainian cities.”

• Russian invasion of Ukraine: energy and minerals issues. United States Energy Association virtual discussion on “The Ukrainian War Comes Home — Energy and Minerals in Crisis.”

• Foreign policy issues. Final day of the Johns Hopkins University Paul H Nitze School of Advanced International Studies' Kissinger Center for Global Affairs virtual workshop on “Europe, Japan, and the United States in a Changing World.”

• Climate issues. Henry L. Stimson Center, the Ocean and Climate Platform, and the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation virtual conference on “Sea and the City: Pathways for Coastal Resilience.”

• Covid issues. Final day of the Brookings Institution virtual Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Spring 2022 Conference, on “the most urgent economic challenges of the day,” including a session on “Fiscal Policy and Budget Deficits Following the Pandemic.”

• Central banks and digital currencies. Central Bank Research Association virtual seminar on “Should Central Banks Issue Digital Currencies,” part of the “Central Banking and Digital Currencies” series.

• Climate and pandemic preparedness. Center for a New American Security virtual discussion on preparedness for climate related disasters, pandemic response, and new strategic plans.

Economic Reports for the Week

There are more than a dozen Fed speeches, including from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell who appears at an economics conference Monday and at an international banking conference Wednesday. The economic calendar focus is on durable goods and both services and manufacturing PMI released Thursday.

Monday, March 21

Quarterly Financial Report
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago releases its National Activity Index for February. Economists forecast a 0.55 reading, slightly lower than the January data. The index has had four consecutive positive monthly readings, which is associated with the economy growing faster than historical trends.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell keynote at the NABE Economic Policy Conference

Tuesday, March 22

Federal Reserve speakers: New York Fed President John Williams, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester
Richmond Fed Manufacturing

Wednesday, March 23

MBA Mortgage Applications
Fed Chairman Powell at Bank for International Settlements virtual summit
Census Bureau reports new-home sales data for February. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 810,000 new single-family houses sold, roughly even with the January figure. The average selling price for a new home was a record $496,900 in January, while the median price was $422,300.
San Francisco Fed’s Daly speaks

Thursday, March 24

Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for February. New orders for manufactured durable goods are expected to decline 0.5% month over month to $277 billion. Excluding transportation, orders for durable goods are seen rising 0.5%, after increasing 0.7% in January.
Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on March 19. Claims have averaged 223,000 for the past four weeks and have normalized to roughly prepandemic levels. Continuing claims — the number of people receiving benefits under regular state unemployment-insurance programs — totaled 1.42 million as of March 5. That is the lowest figure in more than five decades, underscoring the tight labor market as job openings continue to outpace job seekers.
Federal Reserve speakers: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Atlanta Fed’s Bostic
Current account
Manufacturing PMI
Services PMI
New home sales
Fed Balance Sheet
Money Supply

Friday, March 25

National Association of Realtors reports its Pending Home Sales Index for February. Economists forecast a 1% increase in pending home sales, after a 5.7% drop in January.
Consumer sentiment
Federal Reserve speakers: New York Fed’s Williams, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Fed Governor Waller

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events

Focus continues on production and trade implications of Russia’s war on Ukraine, and the fate of South American soybean and corn crops. Friday brings USDA’s update on food prices, which will likely see another boost in forecasts.

Monday, March 21

Ag reports and events:

Export Inspections
Vegetables and Pulses Data
Fruit & Tree Nut Data
Chickens & Eggs
Milk Production
Malaysia’s March 1-20 palm oil export data
Holiday: Japan