Market Snapshot | March 14, 2022

Corn futures are mostly 5 to 15 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures have been unable to rebound, despite wheat’s recovery from overnight losses.
• Russia may suspend exports of wheat, barley, corn and rye starting tomorrow until June 30, Interfax news agency reported today, citing the country’s agriculture ministry.
• USDA reported a daily sale of 159,000 MT of corn to Mexico for the 2021-22 marketing year.
• USDA reported 1.145 MMT (45.1 million bu.) of corn inspected for export during the week ended March 10, down from 1.582 MMT the previous week. Expectations ranged from 1 MMT to 1.65 MMT. Inspections are running 14.2% behind year-ago, compared to 11.3% behind last week.
• The managed money net long in corn rose 19,562 contracts during the week ended March 8 to 368,784 futures and options contracts, the highest since Feb. 1, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
• Brazilian farmers had sown 94% of their safrinha corn area through the end of last week, consultancy AgRural said, as growers rush to plant their crop within the ideal window. This marks a 20-percentage point increase for sown area from the same period last year, AgRural said.
• May corn fell as low as $7.42 1/2 after ending last week at $7.62 1/2, up 8 1/4 cents for the week and the fifth straight weekly advance. Corn technicals are bullish, though May futures failed last week to take out the March 4 contract high at $7.82 3/4, which may signal further sideways trade.

Soybeans are 5 to 15 cents higher and nearby soymeal is around $10 higher, while soyoil futures are 130 to 160 points lower.

• Soybean futures posted overnight gains that in part reflected Argentina’s decision to halt export registrations of soy products, which could tighten oilseed supplies already squeezed by drought.
• USDA reported 772,719 MT (28.4 million bu.) of soybeans inspected for export during the week ended March 10, up from 768,674 MT the previous week. Expectations ranged from 600,000 to 875,000 MT. Inspections are running 21% behind year-ago, compared to 21.6% behind last week.
• The managed money net long in soybean futures and options fell for the second straight week, dropping 4,007 contracts during the week ending March 8 to 171,714 contracts, according to CFTC data.
• May soybeans traded as high at $16.96 3/4 after ending last week at $16.76, up 15 1/2 cents for the week. Initial support in May soybeans is seen at the 20-day moving average around $16.50 1/2 and last week’s low at $16.34 1/2. A close above resistance at the March 1 of $16.97 would have bulls targeting the contract high at $17.59 1/4.

Wheat futures are sharply higher, led by gains of nearly 30 cents in May HRW.

• Wheat futures rebounded from overnight weakness amid ongoing concerns over wheat trade disruptions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Prices came under pressure overnight on prospects a ceasefire may lead to a resumption of grain shipments from the Black Sea region.
• Russia is gradually resuming wheat exports from its Black Sea ports while navigation in the Azov Sea remains restricted, analysts said. “Exports are ongoing from all five Black Sea (grain export) terminals,” IKAR agriculture consultancy said in a note. Prices for Russian wheat remain extremely volatile.

• But Russia may suspend exports of wheat, barley, corn and rye starting tomorrow until June 30, Interfax news agency reported today, citing the country’s agriculture ministry.

• USDA reported 282,344 MT (10.4 million bu.) of wheat inspected for export during the week ended March 10, down from 403,187 MMT the previous week. Expectations ranged from 300,000 to 550,000 MT. Inspections are running 16.5% behind year-ago, compared to 15.1% behind last week.
• Russia’s wheat export tax for March 16-22 will be $86.30 per MT, based on an indicative price of $323.30 per MT. The wheat export tax has dropped nine straight weeks and is down from the peak rate of $98.20 per MT in mid-January but is still 207% higher than the initial rate of $28.10 at the beginning of June when Russia started using the sliding scale.
• Large speculators shifted to a net long in SRW wheat for the first time since early December as prices rallied earlier this month. The managed money net long was 20,208 futures and options contracts as of March 8, compared to a net short of 18,053 contracts a week earlier.
• May SRW futures rose as high as 11.48 3/4 after dropping overnight to $10.68 1/2. May HRW futures rose as high as $11.38 1/4 after falling as low as $10.56 1/4 overnight. Last week’s volatile price action, including a sharp runup followed by a steep selloff, suggests the market has put in a major top.

Cattle futures are sharply higher at midmorning, led by feeder cattle.  

• Feeder cattle are being supported by weakness in the corn market.
• Live cattle futures extended last week’s gains amid beliefs the market established a near-term low last week. Firmness in wholesale beef and an outlook for tight animal supplies are also supporting futures.
• Choice beef values gained 77 cents Friday to $254.71, up 38 cents from the end of the previous week.
• USDA-reported live steers averaged about $138.28 last week, down $2.22 from the previous week's average and the second straight weekly decline.
• April live cattle rose as high as $140.675, the highest intraday price since $141.725 on March 2.

Lean hog futures are widely mixed a midmorning.

• Hog futures saw little followthrough buying from last Friday’s rally even as cash fundamentals firmed. Futures may have established a near-term low a week ago, but the market is in a seasonally weak period.
• The CME lean hog index rose 85 cents today to $100.76, the highest since Sept. 1.
• Pork cutout values fell $1.65 Friday to $102.55, a four-week low. Movement totaled 223 loads.
• Slaughter picked up in recent weeks but continues to lag year-ago levels. Packers slaughtered an estimated 2.475 million head of hogs last week, up 56,000 head from the previous week but down 108,000 head from the same week in 2021.