10:30 Market Snapshot | March 10, 2022

Corn futures are mostly 8 to 16 cents higher, with May futures leading gains.

• Corn futures are being boosted by followthrough buying from overnight gains and strong weekly export sales.
• Old-crop corn sales for the week ended March 3 topped 2.1 MMT, which was a marketing-year high and far greater than expectations for 500,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. “Unknown destinations” was the lead buyer at 800,600 MT. Sales for 2022-23 of 22,900 MT were lower than expected. Weekly exports at nearly 1.8 MMT increased 14% from the previous week.
• Conab left its Brazilian corn crop estimate at 112.3 MMT. It still expects the country to export 35 MMT of corn and import 1.7 MMT during 2021-22.
• May corn futures rebounded after failing to find seller interest below lows posted earlier this week and bouncing off the 10-day moving average in the overnight session. The contract has spiked the 5-day moving average at $7.47 but failed to find sustained buying above that level.

Soybeans are 15 to 21 cents higher at midmorning, while nearby meal futures are around $13 higher. Soyoil futures are narrowly mixed.

• Soybeans and soymeal are showing strong gains amid demand strength.
• Weekly old-crop soybean sales totaled 2.2 MMT, which topped expectations of 900,000 MT to 1.7 MMT. China at nearly 1.1 MMT and “unknown” at 334,000 MT were the lead buyers. Sales of 895,000 MT for 2022-2023 were reported for China (797,000 MT), unknown destinations (66,000 MT) and Mexico (32,000 MT). Exports of 834,900 MT were up 11% from the previous week, but down 26% from the prior 4-week average.
• Weekly soymeal sales at 316,100 MT were up sharply from the previous week and 49% above the four-week average.
• Conab cut its Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 2.7 MMT from last month to 122.8 MMT. Despite the smaller production forecast, the Brazilian government’s forecasting agency kept its 2021-22 soybean export forecast at 80.2 MMT. USDA on Wednesday slashed its Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 7 MMT to 127 MMT, though that’s still well above Conab and private crop forecasters.
• Soyoil futures are trading low-range as Malaysian palm oil pulled back overnight and gains in the U.S. crude oil market have eased.
• May soybean futures continue to trade well within the huge Feb. 24-25 boundaries that were established after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Wheat futures are sharply lower, led by losses of around $1 in the May SRW contract.

• Price action in the wheat market remains extremely volatile, with money flow remaining the primary price driver. Winter wheat contracts have expanded limits of $1.30 today, so the price volatility could become even more extreme.
• After the initial surge to the upside amid global supply concerns tied to the war between Russia and Ukraine, markets are sharply correcting lower.
• In Wednesday’s Supply & Demand Report, USDA cut global wheat exports by 3.6 MMT from last month. Export forecasts were reduced by 4 MMT for Ukraine by 3 MMT for Russia due to the disruptions in shipments from the Black Sea. Those declines are expected to be only partially offset by increased shipments from Australia (up 2 MMT) and India (up 1.5 MMT).
• Wheat export sales of 307,200 MT for 2021-22 were in line with expectations. Sales of 63,000 MT were reported for 2022-23. Exports of 384,500 MT were up 5% from the previous week, but down 10% from the prior 4-week average.
• Algeria purchased 600,000 MT to 700,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat. French wheat is expected to make up a large portion of that total.
• The amount of U.S. winter wheat considered in drought conditions stayed at 73% for the week ended March 8, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. USDA rated winter wheat drought as 19% “moderate,” 33% “severe,” 18% “extreme,” and 3% “exceptional.”
• May SRW futures have filled the March 4 gap at $11.34 after filling the March 7 and March 8 gaps on Tuesday. The market is flashing technical topping signals.

Feeder cattle are under moderate to heavy pressure. Live cattle are mixed.  

• Feeder cattle are being pressured by strength in corn.
• Live cattle have rebounded from earlier losses amid corrective buying, with some deferred contracts now trading slightly higher.
• Cash cattle so far this week traded mostly around $2 lower. While April cattle are trading below the cash market, that’s not enough to spur buyer interest.
• Traders continue to have concerns about beef demand, despite a January record for beef exports and strong weekly sales.
• For the week ended March 3, USDA reported beef sales of 27,500 MT – a marketing-year high. Beef sales increased 16% from the previous week and 36% from the four-week average. China (10,400 MT), Japan (6,400 MT) and South Korea (3,700 MT) were the lead buyers.
• On Wednesday, USDA reported January beef exports totaled 287.6 million lbs. – a record for the month. Though that was down 0.1% from December, beef shipments increased 16.9% from year-ago.
• USDA raised its 2022 beef export forecast by 30 million lbs. from last month, but shipments are expected to decline 4.3% from last year’s record.

Lean hog futures are mixed at midmorning.

• April lean hog futures are facing followthrough selling after sharp losses and a low-range close yesterday. The lead contract is still trading at a premium to the cash index.
• The CME lean hog index is up 26 cents today, ending four consecutive days of declines.
• Deferred lean hog futures have turned mostly firmer after recovering from a weaker start.
• Weekly pork exports sales at 25,400 MT declined 40% from the previous week and 4% from the four-week average. Mexico was the primary buyer at 12,800 MT.
• On Wednesday, USDA lowered its 2022 export projection by 80 million lbs. from last month amid “increased competition in a number of Asian markets.”
• January pork exports totaled 510.2 million lbs., down 4.0% from December and 15.8% under year-ago. Pork shipments to China plunged 70.8% from year-ago in January.