Russian Invasion of Ukraine Overtakes other Washington Issues as Congress Returns

( )

President Biden to give State of the Union address Tuesday amid a worried nation

 


Washington Focus


The House and Senate both return Monday, but to a very different situation due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is expected to be one of the key issues President Joe Biden talks about during his March 1 State of the Union (SOTU) address. President Vladimir Putin on Sunday ordered Russian nuclear deterrent forces put on high alert Sunday in response to what he called “aggressive statements” by leading NATO powers (details below). Late-breaking news Sunday morning broke that Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreed to negotiate with the Russians, but fighting continues across Ukraine

Besides Russia and Ukraine, Biden’s SOTU address could take the opportunity to adjust his Covid policy along the lines of the United Kingdom, which last week lifted all remaining Covid-19 restrictions, including a legal requirement that those infected with the virus self-isolate, as Prime Minister Boris Johnson looks to fully reopen the British economy and society two years after the pandemic hit. Johnson said that with the virus on the wane, government-mandated rules are no longer necessary to stop the spread of Covid-19.

     White House chief of staff Ron Klain told House Democrats last week that he hopes Biden's speech will hand him a bump in the polls, in part by demonstrating leadership on national security and by showing empathy for Americans frustrated with Covid-19 and inflation.

     But Biden will address a nation that largely sees the economy worsening under his watch, disapproves of his leadership on key issues and currently prefers that Republicans control Congress after the November elections, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll. The poll finds Biden’s presidential approval rating at a new low, with 37% saying they approve of the job he is doing and 55% saying they disapprove. Link for details.  Asked whether they would prefer the next Congress to be in the hands of Republicans acting as a check against the president or in Democratic hands to support Biden’s priorities, 50% say they would rather have Republicans in charge on Capitol Hill while 40% prefer the Democrats. On the question of how they would vote in House races if the election were held today, 49% of registered voters say they would support the Republican candidate while 42% say they would vote for the Democratic candidate. The WaPo notes that for comparison, just ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, which saw Democrats score big gains and capture control of the House, it was Democrats who enjoyed a seven-point advantage on this same question.

     Disapproval

     Biden will also focus on his push for carbon mitigation programs and will likely say agriculture will play a big role in that effort. Congress wants to fund climate change language by around $400 bil. in a revised… and likely newly named… Build Back Better measure. Vilsack has said carbon mitigation could be agriculture’s next revenue stream. But farmers know payouts under any such program must be higher than initial signals.

     Biden will attempt to soothe a worried nation faced with geopolitical concerns (Russia, China, Iran, etc.) inflation and rising interest rates once the Fed starts hiking them in March while also beginning to reduce the Fed stimulus, upping fears of a potential downturn in the U.S.... and perhaps world... economy later this year.

     The president will likely stress the already passed infrastructure measure among the positive things his administration is doing. Key to that effort is how the huge funding is implemented at the state level.

     Biden will also highlight he has chosen Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson as the first Black woman to serve on the Supreme Court.

Key updates on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine since Saturday’s special report (link): Street fighting broke out in the center of Kharkiv as Russian troops entered Ukraine’s second-largest city.

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a televised statement on Sunday that he was ordering Russia's nuclear deterrent forces on alert, as he continues his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Speaking alongside his defense minister and military chief of staff, Putin said recent sanctions and "aggressive statements" from NATO countries had led him to put the nuclear deterrent forces in a “special regime of combat duty." This is the second time Putin has alluded to Russia's nuclear arsenal while effectively warning the West to back off. In a statement at the onset of the invasion, Putin said anyone who tried to "hinder us" would face "such consequences that you have never encountered in your history."
     
  • Israel offers to mediate, broker ceasefire between Russia & Ukraine. Israeli Prime Minister NaftalIsraeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett told Russian President Vladimir Putin in a phone call Sunday he would offer an attempt to mediate and broker a ceasefire between Putin and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Kremlin said. Israel has attempted to take a moderate tone on the Russian/Ukrainian crisis. Foreign Minister Yair Lapid has condemned Russia, but PM Bennett has been careful to speak only of his support for the Ukrainian people.
     
  • Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreed to negotiations with Russia “without preconditions” even as Russian troops bore down on Kyiv and continued their thrust around a number of cities across the country. A statement issued to Zelenskyy's official channel on the Telegram messaging app said the Ukrainian government would dispatch a delegation to meet with its Russian counterparts on the Ukrainian/Belarusian border, near the Pripyat River. Link to details via the L.A. Times.
     
  • If Russia succeeds in taking Kyiv, it will face a protracted, deadly insurgency backed by countries friendly to Ukraine, Douglas London predicts at Foreign Affairs (link). “Putin has badly miscalculated by invading Ukraine,” Melinda Haring writes for the same magazine. “He may find it easy to pull off a swift invasion, but then comes the hard part. The Ukrainian people will never allow Moscow to chart their course or pick their president. The desire for freedom is ineffable, and Ukrainians have proved that they are willing to die for it.” As for Russians, the Economist writes (link) that Russians do not seem at all enthusiastic: “The somber, shamed mood in Moscow could hardly be more different from the euphoria that gripped it in 2014 when Putin seized and annexed Crimea,” the magazine observes.
     
  • EU, U.K., Canada, U.S. plan to cut some Russian banks from Swift. The European Union, U.K., the U.S. and Canada announced powerful new sanctions plans, including taking some Russian banks off the Swift financial network and taking measures to paralyze the activities of Russia’s central bank over the Kremlin’s attack on Ukraine. “Russia’s war represents an assault on fundamental international rules and norms that have prevailed since the Second World War, which we are committed to defending. We will hold Russia to account and collectively ensure that this war is a strategic failure for Putin,” the leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) countries wrote in a joint statement that outlined the new measures. Additionally, the leaders committed “to imposing restrictive measures that will prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions.”

    Background: The Belgium-based system is run by its member banks and handles millions of daily payment instructions across more than 200 countries and territories and 11,000 financial institutions. Iran and North Korea are cut off from it. Link to WSJ backgrounder on SWIFT.

     
  • G7 countries, all democracies, also vowed to limit the ability of Russian oligarchs with ties to Putin’s government to buy citizenship in other countries and to access their financial systems. They also announced the creation of a task force to oversee the implementation of the new sanctions.
     
  • Germany is going to send thousands of weapons to Ukraine, marking a complete reversal in Berlin’s restrictive arms export policy, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledging a jump in military spending and a revamp of the armed forces.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gives his semiannual policy update to Congress on Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee. He’ll do the same before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.

Regarding a new farm bill, the House Ag Committee on Tuesday holds a hearing on farm bill commodity title views.

The Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments in a case from Republican-led states and coal producers challenging the Environmental Protection Agency's authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions and address the climate crisis.

     The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will release a major report that will summarize the current effects of global warming and will focus on climate solutions and regional and local adaptation.

     As for California’s Prop 12 provision that the NPPC and Farm Bureau wants SCOTUS to review. It is possible, again, that the SCOTUS could decide on the petition this Friday with an announcement the following Monday.

 


                                                                                    Events of Note



     Monday, Feb. 28:

• Russia/Ukraine situation. Washington Post Live virtual discussion on the latest developments in Ukraine, Russian President Putin and sanctions on Russia.
• USMCA. Brookings virtual discussion on “USMCA (U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement): Building a more competitive, inclusive, and sustainable North American economy.”
• GHG modeling for biofuels. Environmental Protection Agency virtual workshop of the EPA's Office of Transportation and Air Quality in consultation with USDA and Department of Energy to solicit information on the current scientific understanding of greenhouse gas modeling of land-based biofuels used in the transportation sector; runs through Tuesday.
• USDA Equality Commission. USDA Equity Commission and Subcommittee for Agriculture meeting to review USDA programs, services and policies for the purpose of making recommendations for how the department can improve access and advance equity.
• Lithuania view on Russia/Ukraine situation. Washington Post Live virtual discussion with Lithuania Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte on “how she thinks the world should respond to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and what is at stake for her country.”
• Tech competition with China. Heritage Foundation virtual discussion on “Winning the 21st Century Tech Race with China.”
• Biden policies. House Freedom Caucus news conference to discuss the Biden administration's policies.

     Tuesday, March 1

• President Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union message to a joint session of Congress.
• Farm bill commodity title views. House Agriculture Committee hearing on “A 2022 Review of the Farm Bill: Commodity Group Perspectives on Title 1.”
• GHG modeling for biofuels. Final day of Environmental Protection Agency virtual workshop of the EPA's Office of Transportation and Air Quality in consultation with USDA and Department of Energy to solicit information on the current scientific understanding of greenhouse gas modeling of land-based biofuels used in the transportation sector.
• U.K. view on Russia invasion of Ukraine. Woodrow Wilson Center virtual discussion on “Russia's Aggression Toward Ukraine — the British View.”
• Cryptocurrencies. Credit Union National Association 2022 Governmental Affairs Conference with a focus on cryptocurrencies.
• Global security strategies. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on “Global Security Challenges and Strategy.”
• Economic issues. Heritage Foundation discussion on its “2022 Index of Economic Freedom.”
• Biden Supreme Court nominee. Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies virtual discussion on President Biden's Supreme Court nomination.

     Wednesday, March 2

• Monetary policy report to Congress. House Financial Services Committee hearing on “Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy” (link) with Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
• CFTC nominations. Senate Ag Committee hearing on the nominations of Christy Goldsmith Romero to be a commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission; Kristin Johnson to be a commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission; Summer Kristine Mersinger to be a commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission; and Caroline Pham to be a commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
• Importance of Ukraine. Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion on “Why Ukraine Matters.”
• Russian aggression. National Endowment for Democracy virtual discussion on “An Offshore Cold War: Forging a Democratic Alliance to Combat Transnational Kleptocracy,” focusing on Russian aggression.
• Infrastructure package. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing on implementation of the “Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act” by the Transportation Department.
• Climate and energy issues for Congress. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “Climate and Energy in the 117th Congress.”
• EVs versus conventional vehicles. Argonne National Laboratory virtual webinar on “Science at Work: Electric vs. Conventional Vehicles — Which Are Greener?”

• Covid regs and businesses. Heritage Foundation virtual discussion with Washington, DC business owners speaking out against Covid regulations.
• Fed views. Brookings Institution virtual discussion on “The Powell Fed: Looking Back and Looking Ahead.”
• Remain in Mexico policy. House Homeland Security Border Security, Facilitation, and Operations Subcommittee hearing on “Examining the Court-Ordered Reimplementation of the Remain in Mexico Policy.”
• White House Chief of Staff. Economic Club of Washington D.C. webinar with White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain.
• Washington issues. Washington Post Live virtual discussion on the latest news out of Ukraine, President Biden's State of the Union address and the work of the House (Select) Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Thursday, March 3

• Monetary report to Congress. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on “The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress” with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. 
• Administration views on Russian invasion of Ukraine. Washington Post Live virtual discussion with Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo on the Russian sanctions and the Biden administration's fiscal approach to supporting Ukraine.
• Congressional response to Russian invasion of Ukraine. Washington Post Live virtual discussion on how the United States and Congress should respond to Russia's attack on Ukraine. 
• Defense strategies and Russian aggression. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion on “the outlook for the National Defense Strategy, a new defense budget, and the ramifications of Russian aggression.”
• Ocean shipping reform. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing on HR 4996, the “Ocean Shipping Reform Act of 2021.”
• Vote on nominees. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee markup to vote on nominations for several posts at the Departments of Commerce and Transportation, Federal Trade Commission, and the Consumer Product Safety Commission.
• Energy outlook. Bipartisan Policy Center virtual discussion on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) release of the 2022 Annual Energy Outlook.
• Cryptocurrencies. Washington Post Live virtual “Path Forward” discussion on “Cryptocurrency,” examining the growth of digital currency, blockchain technology, the regulatory landscape and the future of money.
• Global climate action. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “Advancing Global Climate Action.”

Friday, March 4

• Oil politics. Woodrow Wilson Center virtual book discussion on “Partial Hegemony: Oil Politics and International Order.”

 


Economic Reports for the Week



Friday’s Employment report is the key financial data on tap this week. There is also a heavy roster of Fed speakers and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be giving testimony on Capitol Hill.

     Economic reports 022722

Monday, Feb. 28

  • International Trade in Goods
  • Wholesale Inventories
  • Institute for Supply Management releases the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for February. Consensus estimate is for a 63 reading, two points less than the January figure.
  • Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey   
  • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks

Tuesday, March 1

  • PMI Manufacturing
  • Construction Spending
  • ISM releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for February. Economists forecast a 57.8 reading, roughly even with January’s. The index has had 20 consecutive readings above 50, indicating growth in the nation’s manufacturing sector.
  • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks

Wednesday, March 2

  • MBA Mortgage Applications
  • Motor Vehicle Sales
  • ADP releases its National Employment Report for February. Economists forecast a gain of 410,000 jobs in private-sector employment after a surprise decrease of 301,000 in January.
  • Beige Book
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gives his semiannual policy update to Congress before the House Financial Services Committee. He’ll do the same before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.
  • Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks                                      
  • St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks

Thursday, March 3

  • Jobless Claims
  • Productivity and Costs
  • PMI Composite Final
  • Factory Orders
  • ISM Services Index for February. Consensus estimate is for a 61 reading, about one point higher than January’s.
  • Fed Balance Sheet
  • Money Supply  
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gives his semiannual policy update to Congress before the Senate Banking Committee.
  • New York Fed President John Williams speaks

Friday, March 4

  • Labor Department releases the jobs report for February. The economy is expected to have added 385,000 jobs, after an increase of 467,000 in January. The unemployment rate is seen edging lower to 3.9% from 4%. The large jump in January was a surprise, as estimates had called for a gain of only 155,000.
  • Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks
     

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events 



The United Nations’ FAO monthly food price index is scheduled to be released Thursday.
 

     On the energy front, several weekly oil reports will take on even more importance following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Russia’s role in the world oil market. On Wednesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, convenes a meeting via videoconference. The group has been increasing production by a modest 400,000 barrels per day, even as Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, briefly surpassed $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014.

Monday, Feb. 28

     Ag reports and events:

  • Export Inspections
  • Agricultural Prices
  • Cold Storage, Annual
  • Egg Products
  • Trout Production
  • Malaysia’s Feb. 1-20 palm oil export data
  • Holiday: Brazil, Indonesia

Energy reports and events:

  • EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly
  • EIA 914 monthly oil and gas production

Tuesday, March 1

     Ag reports and events:

  • Livestock and Meat Domestic Data
  • Cotton System
  • Cotton System Consumption and Stocks Annual Summary
  • Fats & Oils
  • Fats & Oils: Oilseed Crushings, Production, Consumption and Stocks Annual Summary
  • Grain Crushings
  • Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production Annual Summary
  • U.S. Purdue Agriculture Sentiment
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Holiday: Brazil, Argentina, India, South Korea

     Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee meets

Wednesday, March 2

     Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • Winter Grain conference in Siberia

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
  • Genscape weekly crude inventory report for Europe’s ARA region
  • OPEC+ meeting

Thursday, March 3

     Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • County Estimates: All Rice
  • U.S. and Canadian Cattle and Sheep
  • U.S. and Canadian Hogs 
  • FAO Food Price Index
  • Holiday: Indonesia

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • Russian weekly refinery outage data from ministry
  • Insights Global weekly oil product inventories in Europe’s ARA region
  • Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly

Friday, March 4

     Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC Commitments of Traders report
  • Peanut Prices
  • Dairy Products
  • FranceAgriMer weekly update on crop conditions

     Energy reports and events:

  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts

 

 

 

Latest News

H&P Report negative compared to pre-report expectations
H&P Report negative compared to pre-report expectations

Nearly every category topped the average pre-report estimates.

After the Bell | March 28, 2024
After the Bell | March 28, 2024

After the Bell | March 28, 2024

Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor
Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor

Pro Farmer editors provide daily updates on advice, including if now is a good time to catch up on cash sales.

PF Report Reaction: Bullish USDA data for corn
PF Report Reaction: Bullish USDA data for corn

Corn planting intentions and March 1 stocks came in lower than expected.

Report Snapshot: USDA shows lighter-than-expected corn acres and stocks
Report Snapshot: USDA shows lighter-than-expected corn acres and stocks

USDA reported corn acres of 90.036 million acres for 2024 and March 1 stocks of 8.347 billion bu., both well below trade estimates. Soybean acres were slightly lower than expectations, while stocks were higher.