Rural Bankers Remain Optimistic but Expect Decline in Grain Prices

Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) climbed in February and remained above growth neutral for the 15th straight month, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.         

The region’s overall reading for February rose to 61.5 from January’s 61.1. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Strong grain prices, the Federal Reserve’s record-low short-term interest rates, and growing agricultural exports have underpinned the rural mainstreet economy,” says Dr. Ernie Goss, who conducts the survey.  

The region’s farmland price index decreased to a very strong 78.8 from January’s 88.5 and December’s record high of 90.0. February’s reading represents the 17th straight month the index has moved above growth neutral.   

This month, bankers were asked to project corn and soybean prices out six months. On average, bank CEOs expect corn prices per bushel to fall by 2.6% and soybean prices per bushel to drop by 2.3% over the next six months.    

The February farm equipment-sales index slipped to a very healthy 72.0 from 72.4 in January. This is the 15th straight month the index has advanced above growth neutral. Readings over the past several months are the strongest string of monthly readings recorded since Spring 2011, Goss notes.

After moving higher for two straight months, the confidence index, which reflects bank CEO expectations for the economy six months out, sank to a weak 51.9 from January’s healthy reading of 61.1.