Republicans Warn USDA on Coming Oversight of Climate Efforts

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Russia/Ukraine: Read whatever you want from developments as outcome remains murky

 

                                                In Today’s Digital Newspaper

 

Market Focus:
• U.S. suppliers sharply boosted prices last month
• Record numbers of Americans quitting jobs added about 1 percentage point to inflation
• U.K. inflation picked up in January as energy prices remained elevated
• Block trading probe
• Digital assets could soon threaten global financial stability: Report
• Ag demand update

• Soybeans lead price rebound overnight
• Reuters: Paraguay soy crushers risk running out of supplies
• China to survey soils as part of its food security initiative
• Slow developing cash cattle market
• Pork cutout pulls back

Policy Focus:
• White House wants $30 billion in new Covid aid
• Mitch McConnell: ‘No danger’ of gov’t shutdown  

Personnel:
• Senate narrowly confirms Biden’s pick to lead FDA
• Senate Republicans refused to attend committee vote on nominees to Federal Reserve  

China Update:
• Report: China could cut soybean demand by 30 MMT, but analysts doubt action
• USTR releases report on China compliance with WTO membership
• Inflationary pressure in China continued to ease in January

Energy & Climate Change:
• Republicans warn USDA on coming oversight of climate efforts
• Senate panel hearing on RFS today
• CEQ publishes notice on carbon capture efforts
• DOE seeks input on implementing $9.5 billion for clean hydrogen initiatives

Livestock, Food & Beverage Industry Update:
• Rising food prices drive unrest in Africa
• More countries add restrictions on poultry from Kentucky
• USDA confirmation of potential second Indiana bird flu case awaited  

Coronavirus Update:
• About 64% of Americans are fully vaccinated, but only 28% have received booster dose
• San Francisco recalls three members of city’s school board

Politics & Elections:
• 30 House Democrats have now retired or said they’re not going to run for re-election Nov. 8  

Congress:
• Pelosi in Israel

Other Items of Note:
• Biden: Russian invasion still possible  

 

MARKET FOCUS

 

Equities today: Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly weaker openings. Asian equities finished with gains following US market advances on a view tensions were less on the Russia/Ukraine front. The Nikkei gained 595.21 points, 2.22%, at 27,460.40. The Hang Seng Index rose 363.19 points, 1.49%, at 24,718.90. European equities are under mild pressure in early action, with markets slipping into negative territory after a higher start. The Stoxx 600 was down 0.05% with other markets down 0.1% to 0.3%.

     U.S. equities yesterday: The Dow closed up 422.67 points, 1.22%, at 34,988.84. The Nasdaq gained 348.84 points, 2.53%, at 14,139.76. The S&P 500 rose 69.40 points, 1.58%, at 4,471.07.

     Stocks_021522

On tap today:

     • U.S. retail sales for January are expected to increase 2.1% from the prior month. (8:30 a.m. ET
     • U.S. import prices for January are expected to increase 1.2% from the prior month. (8:30 a.m. ET)
     • U.S. industrial production for January is expected to increase 0.5% from the prior month. (9:15 a.m. ET)
     U.S. business inventories for December are expected to increase 2.1% from the prior month. (10 a.m. ET)
     • National Association of Home Builders housing market index is expected to tick down to 82 in February from 83 one month earlier. (10 a.m. ET)
     • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks at a town hall discussion at 11 a.m. ET.
     • Federal Reserve releases minutes from its Jan. 25-26 meeting at 2 p.m. ET.
     • Japan's exports for January are expected to increase 16.5% from one year earlier. (6:50 p.m. ET)

U.S. suppliers sharply boosted prices last month, in a sign upward pressure on already high consumer inflation continued to build at the start of the year. The Labor Department on Tuesday said the Producer Price Index, which generally reflects supply conditions in the economy, rose a seasonally adjusted 1% in January from the prior month, the sharpest rise since May 2021. The gain reflects pandemic-related disruptions from the Omicron variant of Covid-19 at the start of the year and continued strength in consumer demand, economists said.

     Producer prices rose 9.7% on a 12-month basis, nearly the same as the prior month. Tuesday’s numbers are the latest sign that inflation hasn’t yet peaked.

     Inflation PPI

Record numbers of Americans have been quitting jobs to seek better opportunities. That added about 1 percentage point to inflation last year, according to research from the Chicago Fed's Renato Faccini, Leonardo Melosi and Russell Miles (link). "By applying for jobs in a different firm, employed workers can spur wage competition between the current employer and prospective employers. As a result, labor becomes more expensive to retain or to hire, effectively corresponding to a tighter labor market from the perspective of employers. ... We find that the tighter labor market during the pandemic gradually contributed to raising the rate of inflation," they write.

 

U.K. inflation picked up in January as energy prices remained elevated and supply chains struggled with the lingering effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. The consumer price index — which measures what consumers pay for goods and services — increased 5.5% in January, compared with a year earlier, the U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said. That was the highest level since March 1992. The Bank of England earlier this month raised interest rates for the second time in as many policy meetings to help combat rising inflation. The BOE expects inflation to top 7% in the coming months.

     UK Inflation

Market perspectives:

     • Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was weaker amid a firmer tone in most foreign currencies versus the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was slightly weaker, around 2.03%, with a mixed tone in global government bond yields. Gold was lower and silver higher ahead of economic updates, with gold under $1,854 per troy ounce and silver above $23.43 per troy ounce.

     • Crude oil futures are moving higher ahead of U.S. gov’t inventory data due later this morning, with U.S. crude around $93.40 per barrel and Brent around $94.75 per barrel. Crude had been weaker in Asian action, with U.S. crude around $92 per barrel and Brent around $93 per barrel.

     • Block trading probe. U.S. authorities are examining the involvement of one of Morgan Stanley’s top equities executives in block trades as part of an investigation into whether banks improperly alerted certain clients to market-moving transactions, according to reports. Pawan Passi, who ran Morgan Stanley’s U.S. equity syndicate desk and led the firm’s communications with investors for equity transactions, is among individuals whose activities are facing scrutiny.

     • Digital assets could soon threaten global financial stability, according to a report this morning from the Financial Stability Board — set up by the G-20 in the wake of the financial crisis. The report highlighted the scale of the asset class, increasing interconnectedness with traditional finance and its structural vulnerabilities. Bitcoin remained mostly unmoved by the release of the report with the largest cryptocurrency holding above $44,000 this morning.

     • Ag demand: Jordan tendered to buy 120,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat. Iran tendered to buy 60,000 MT each of corn, soymeal and feed barley from unspecified origins. Japan received no offers in its tender for 80,000 MT of feed wheat and 100,000 MT of feed barley. Syria made no purchase in its tender to buy 200,000 MT of milling wheat.

     • NWS weather: Heavy snow possible across parts of the central High Plains today... ...Potential for a swath of disruptive snow and freezing rain to extend from northern Oklahoma to southern Michigan on Thursday... ...Severe thunderstorms possible from the Southern Plains to the Mid-South beginning Wednesday night, while heavy rain may lead to isolated flash flooding throughout the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and Southern Appalachians... ...Critical fire weather conditions forecast to continue across portions of the southern High Plains today.

        NWS 021622
        Wx 021622

Items in Pro Farmer's First Thing Today include:

     • Soybeans lead price rebound overnight
     • Reuters: Paraguay soy crushers risk running out of supplies
     • China to survey soils as part of its food security initiative
     • Slow developing cash cattle market
     • Pork cutout pulls back

 

POLICY FOCUS


— White House wants $30 billion in new Covid aid. The Biden administration has signaled to Congress that it wants $30 billion in additional Covid aid, according to the Washington Post (link). The request is expected to include new money for testing, vaccines and therapeutics, according to reports. The White House hasn’t said when they expect this package to get through Congress. The key numbers, via the Associated Press: “$17.9 billion for vaccines and treatments, $4.9 billion for testing, $3 billion to cover coronavirus care for uninsured people, and $3.7 billion to prepare for future variants.”

— Mitch McConnell said there's "no danger" of a government shutdown, even as the clock ticks toward funding running out. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said there is "no danger" of a government shutdown as GOP senators throw up hurdles and the calendar flips closer to the Feb. 18 deadline. "As is often the case, we'll process a few amendments before doing the short-term [continuing resolution]. I think it'll all be worked out. There is no danger of a government shutdown,” McConnell said.

 

PERSONNEL


— Senate narrowly confirmed President Biden’s pick to lead the Food and Drug Administration on Tuesday. The 50-46 vote means Robert Califf, a cardiologist and medical researcher, will again lead the regulatory agency, which he briefly headed during the end of President Obama’s administration. The FDA hasn’t had a permanent leader in more than a year. Califf inherits reviews and decisions pending at the agency, which regulates several multibillion-dollar industries, including prescription and over-the-counter drugs, medical devices, tobacco products and most foods.

     Key votes: Republicans Roy Blunt (Mo.), Richard Burr (N.C.), Susan Collins (Maine). Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Mitt Romney (Utah) and Pat Toomey (Pa.) voted for Califf while Democrats Maggie Hassan (N.H.), Joe Manchin (W.Va.), Ed Markey (Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) voted against the nomination. Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) voted “present” and Shelly Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Ben Ray Lujan (D-N.M.) did not vote.

— Senate Republicans refused to attend a committee vote on President Biden’s nominees to the Federal Reserve over a disagreement with Democrats on one of the candidates, delaying the confirmation of all five picks, including chairman Jerome Powell.

 

CHINA UPDATE


— Report: China could cut soybean demand by 30 MMT, but analysts doubt action. China can reduce its soybean demand by 30 MMT by continuing to promote lower soymeal rations in feed and using alternative proteins, the official Xinhua news agency reported, citing unnamed agriculture officials. After China issued guidelines last year recommending the reduction of soymeal use, the portion of soymeal in feed reportedly dropped to an average 15.3%, down 2.4 percentage points compared with 2020. Among the top 33 feed companies, soymeal rations averaged 11.8%, a decrease of 1.6 points from the previous year. China has said boosting soybean production will be a “major political task.”

     Comments: The report on the potential sharp reduction in soybean demand comes after front-month soybeans topped $16 for only the fifth time ever last week. Says one industry analyst: “China needs more beans.”

— USTR releases report on China compliance with WTO membership. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) released its 2021 Report to Congress on China’s WTO Compliance, detailing the Biden administration’s assessment of China’s membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO). “China has not moved to embrace the market-oriented principles on which the WTO and its rules are based, despite the representations that it made when it joined 20 years ago,” said USTR Katherine Tai. “China has instead retained and expanded its state-led, non-market approach to the economy and trade. It is clear that in pursuing that approach, China’s policies and practices challenge the premise of the WTO’s rules and cause serious harm to workers and businesses around the world, particularly in industries targeted by China’s industrial plans.” Link to report.

     The report said the Biden administration is pursuing “a multi-faceted approach to address the harm caused by China’s trade and economic policies through both bilateral engagement with China and the use of trade tools” to protect American workers and businesses. The strategy also includes “enhanced engagement with allies and partners in order to build broad support for solutions to the many unique problems posed by China and defending our shared interests.”

     Here is what the USTR report said regarding the Phase 1 U.S. trade agreement with China:

“[I]n January 2020, the two sides signed what is commonly referred to as the “Phase 1 Agreement.” This Agreement included commitments from China to improve market access for the agriculture and financial services sectors, along with commitments relating to intellectual property and technology transfer and a commitment by China to increase its purchases of U.S. goods and services. Many of the commitments in the Phase 1 Agreement reflected changes that China had already been planning or pursuing for its own benefit or that otherwise served China’s interests, such as the changes involving intellectual property protection and the opening up of more financial services sectors.

“Other commitments to which China agreed reflected a calculation, as it saw them as appeasing U.S. priorities of the prior Administration, as evidenced by the attention paid to the agriculture sector in the Phase 1 Agreement and the novel commitments relating to China’s purchases of U.S. goods and services ostensibly as a means to reduce the bilateral trade deficit.

“Given these dynamics, and given China’s interest in a more stable relationship with the United States, China followed through in implementing some provisions of the Phase 1 Agreement. At the same time, China has not yet implemented some of the more significant commitments that it made in the Phase 1 Agreement, such as commitments in the area of agricultural biotechnology and the required risk assessment that China is to conduct relating to the use of ractopamine in cattle and swine. China has also fallen far short of implementing its commitments to purchase U.S. goods and services in 2020 and 2021.”

— Inflationary pressure in China continued to ease in January. The producer price index, a gauge of wholesale prices charged by manufacturers, rose a lower-than-expected 9.1% from a year earlier, down from December’s 10.3%, the National Bureau of Statistics said. Softening coal and steel prices helped lead the index lower. Prices paid by consumers also rose at a slower pace in January, with the consumer price index edging up by 0.9%, compared with 1.5% in December. Subdued inflation gives the country’s central bank more leeway to ease monetary policy as Beijing strives to revive an economy battered by a property downturn and repeated outbreaks of Covid-19 since last summer.

     China PPI

 

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE


— Republicans warn USDA on coming oversight of climate efforts. Republican leaders of the House and Senate Agriculture Committees are already signaling that they will pursue oversight efforts relative to USDA climate actions such as the announcement last week of $1 billion for pilot projects on climate-smart commodity actions.

     House Agriculture Ranking Member GT Thompson (R-Pa.) has been vocal in recent hearings the panel’s subcommittees have held relative to gathering information for the next farm bill, focusing his attention on USDA climate actions. He has taken exception to USDA using authorities under the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) to fund the effort and in a Tuesday subcommittee session on civil rights issues at USDA with Inspector General Phyllis Fong, asked if her office was going to audit the USDA authority to use the CCC for the program. Fong indicated there are no current plans to do so, but admitted there have been concerns raised about the climate effort.

     Senate Agriculture Committee Ranking Member John Boozman (R-Ark.) told Politico he wants to see the new pilot efforts before he decides on how effective they will be. But he said wants to provide a check on USDA’s actions on this front, telling the outlet, “We’re going to hold their feet to the fire.”

     Should the November elections result in Republicans taking control of the House as widely expected, Thompson has made clear the panel will be putting a major focus on USDA’s climate efforts as he and other Republicans consider the USDA effort an overstep in what they see something that should be left up to Congress. Similarly, Boozman appears ready to undertake oversight on USDA’s actions. These efforts will be unfolding along with work on a new farm bill. And the situation may also contribute to what more observers believe to be increasing odds for an extension of one to two years of the 2018 Farm Bill.

— Senate panel hearing on RFS today. The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee holds a hearing today on the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), a session that features testimony from Cory-Ann Wind, Oregon Clean Fuels Program Manager, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality; Emily Skor, Chief Executive Officer, Growth Energy; Lucian Pugliaresi, President, Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc.; and LeAnn Johnson Koch, Partner, Perkins Coie, LLP.

     The session comes on the heels of a report released this week which indicated that the production of corn-based ethanol results in greater greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than gasoline, a study disputed by the biodfuels industry. The authors of the paper put together "a series of worse-case assumptions" and "cherry-picked data" for their report, Geoff Cooper, president of the Renewable Fuel Association, said in a statement. The association argues that even with the tillage, past studies have shown corn ethanol still produces fewer emissions than gasoline.

     The committee has a mix of biofuel backers and those opposed to expanded biofuels use so the session is likely to see well-established positions outlined and questions to those testifying will likely represent their positions. It is not clear any new perspectives will emerge from this session.

 CEQ publishes notice on carbon capture efforts. The Council of Environmental Quality (CEQ) released an interim guidance document on Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Sequestration (CCUS) guidance aimed at providing guidance to U.S. gov’t agencies on regulating and permitting CCUS projects and carbon dioxide pipelines. CEQ said the notice is to “support the efficient, orderly, and responsible deployment of CCUS projects and carbon dioxide pipelines.” The guidance is in line with a report to Congress from the CEQ issued in June 2021 on CCUS efforts. Comments on the notice (link) published in today’s (Feb. 16) Federal Register are due March 18.

— DOE seeks input on implementing $9.5 billion for clean hydrogen initiatives. The Department of Energy (DOE) published two requests for information (RFI) in the Federal Register today (Feb. 16) to gather stakeholder feedback about deploying $9.5 billion in funding from the bipartisan infrastructure law (BIF) to boost clean hydrogen. The measure set aside $8 billion for Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs aimed at expanding the use of clean hydrogen in the industrial and other sectors. BIF also included $1 billion to establish a Clean Hydrogen Electrolysis Program to reduce the cost of hydrogen created using clean electricity, and $500 million for Clean Hydrogen Manufacturing and Recycling Initiatives to support equipment manufacturing and domestic supply chains. Responses for the Hydrogen Hubs Implementation Strategy RFI (link) are due March 8, while those for the Clean Hydrogen Manufacturing, Recycling and Electrolysis RFI (link) are due March 29.

 

LIVESTOCK, FOOD & BEVERAGE INDUSTRY


— Rising food prices drive unrest in Africa. Parts of Africa are contending with a wave of inflation that is, by some measures, even worse than the supply shocks cascading around the rest of the world, the Wall Street Journal reports (link). Food prices are at their highest levels in over a decade, according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization, compounding the plight of some 40 million people thrown into poverty by the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and its accompanying lockdowns. That is creating a food crisis that threatens to spill over into unrest. In some places, it is already driving people to emigrate. Over the past 12 months, some 100,000 Ugandans — including teachers, accountants and social workers — have migrated to wealthy Gulf states of the Middle East, according to government data. That flow could pick up pace as prices track higher, undermining what had been one of Africa’s economic success stories.

     Food prices

— More countries add restrictions on poultry from Kentucky. Confirmation of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in a commercial broiler flock of 240,000 chickens owned by Tyson Foods in Fulton County, Kentucky has prompted additional countries to block imports of poultry, with most of the restrictions added by USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service for product from the entire state of Kentucky.

     — Poultry/products from the county on or after the specified date: Jamaica (Feb. 12, includes Hickman County), Vietnam (Feb. 8).
     — Poultry/products from a 10-kilometer radius as of the specified date: Egypt (Feb. 12), Mauritius (Jan. 22), Morocco (Jan. 22).
     — Poultry/products from the state of Kentucky on or after the specified date: Benin (Jan. 22), China (Feb. 12), Cuba (Feb. 12), Dominica (Feb. 12), Dominican Republic (Feb. 12), French Polynesia (Tahiti) (Feb. 12), Korea (Feb. 12), Namibia (Jan. 22), South Africa (Jan. 22), St. Lucia (Feb. 12), Tunisia (Feb. 12), Uruguay (Feb. 12).

     There has still not been a confirmation from USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) relative to a non-negative result reported for another Kentucky location.

— USDA confirmation of potential second Indiana bird flu case awaited. The Indiana Board of Animal Health reported a potential case of H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has been found in a second commercial turkey flock in DuBois County, Indiana, but confirmatory test results are still awaited. The find is in a flock of 26,473 birds in the county and the agency said that depopulation is ongoing.

 

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE


Summary: Global cases of Covid-19 are at 415,769,578 with 5,839,809 deaths, according to data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. The U.S. case count is at 78,039,888 with 925,560 deaths. The Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center said that there have been 547,948,656 doses administered, 214,104,148 have been fully vaccinated, or 65.22% of the U.S. population.

     About 64% of Americans are fully vaccinated, but only 28% have received a booster dose, according to latest CDC data.

— San Francisco recalls three members of city’s school board. San Francisco residents recalled three members of the city’s school board Tuesday for what critics called misplaced priorities and putting progressive politics over the needs of children during the pandemic. Voters overwhelmingly approved the recall in a special election, according to tallies by the San Francisco Department of Elections. The election was the first recall in San Francisco since 1983, since a failed attempt to remove then-Mayor Dianne Feinstein. One of the first issues to grab national attention was the board’s January 2021 decision to rename 44 schools they said honored public figures linked to racism, sexism and other injustices. On the list were Abraham Lincoln, George Washington and U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.). The effort drew swift criticism for historical mistakes.

 

POLITICS & ELECTIONS


— 30 House Democrats have now retired or said they’re not going to run for re-election Nov. 8. The most recent was Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-N.Y.), a 57-year-old former prosecutor in her fourth term in the House. The Democratic retirement total is the highest in three decades for the party.

 

CONGRESS


— Pelosi in Israel. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is leading a congressional delegation to Israel today on a trip focused on “recognizing our shared democratic values and mutual security.” Pelosi is expected to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, where the two are expected to discuss Iran deal negotiations in Vienna. Pelosi’s trip is part of a three-nation tour, with stops in Germany and the United Kingdom to follow.

 

OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE

 

Biden: Russian invasion still possible. President Joe Biden said it remains possible that Russia will invade Ukraine because its troops remain in a “threatening position,” and that the U.S. has not verified Moscow’s claims that it has withdrawn some forces. Biden agreed with a Kremlin declaration Monday that diplomacy is still possible but vowed he would not “sacrifice basic principles” that countries — including Ukraine — should have the right to keep their own borders.

     British Defense Minister Ben Wallace said this morning in London that the U.K. has not seen “any evidence at the moment of that withdrawal.” "Physical observations that we see show the opposite of some of the recent rhetoric coming out of the Kremlin," Wallace told the BBC, according to Reuters (link).

     Biden said an escalating conflict could have an impact domestically: “I will not pretend this will be painless. There could be impact on our energy prices, so we are taking active steps to alleviate the pressure on our own energy markets.... We’re coordinating with major energy ... consumers and producers.”

     Putin comments. In a news conference Tuesday after a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Moscow, Russian leader Vladimir Putin said that although the U.S. and other NATO members have yet to provide a satisfactory answer to Russia’s demands, there was room to follow the negotiation track. “Do we want a war or not? Of course not,” said Putin. “That’s why we put forward our proposals for a negotiation process.”

     It is unclear what concessions — if any — Putin may have received from European leaders and Biden, but on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that NATO membership, despite being written in the country’s constitution, remained a “dream.”

     Late Tuesday the Ukrainian Defense Ministry and two of the country’s largest banks were hit by cyberattacks, according to a statement from Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications. Moscow did not claim responsibility for the attacks.

     The Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement that large-scale exercises involving land, sea and air units were ongoing. But as combat training was completed, Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov indicated that several troops would be returning to their permanent barracks and garrisons.

     U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III is set to travel today to meet with allies and NATO defense ministers “to discuss Russia’s military buildup in and around Ukraine,” Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby said in a news briefing. The U.S. in recent weeks has sent more troops to bolster NATO’s eastern flank. “We still don’t believe that some final decision [by Russia] has been made,” Kirby said. “We have said for a while now that military actions can happen any day.” Kirby reiterated Biden’s message that in the event of a Russian invasion, the United States, which has said that none of its troops would fight in Ukraine, would respond swiftly with severe economic consequences.

     Russia’s lower house of parliament — the State Duma — approved a resolution to send Putin a proposal to recognize Donetsk and Luhansk, the two regions in eastern Ukraine held by Russia-backed separatists, as independent republics. The recognition would upend the so-called Minsk agreement, a 2015 deal aimed at returning the two regions to Ukrainian rule while granting them special status.

     Bottom line: Russia announced this morning that more troops would be returning to their bases, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that there’s no proof of de-escalation. With exercises close to the Ukrainian border and in Belarus not due to end until Feb. 20, it may be several days before there is clarity on troop movements. 


 

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