Consultant Believes Brazil Soybean Estimate Could Move Higher

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:18 AM

South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his corn and soybean crop estimates unchanged this week, but has a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward. He says his Brazilian soybean crop peg could "move higher by several million tons" if yields in Rio Grande do Sul and northeastern Brazil turn out as good as they look. He says Brazil's soybean harvest is around 40% complete.

Meanwhile, he says safrinha corn planting in Brazil is around 50% compete and full-season corn harvest in southern Brazil is advancing with "very good" yields being reported.

Dr. Cordonnier 2016-17 Soybean Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2015-16

in million metric tons

Brazil
105.0
107.0
103.0
95.5
Argentina
54.0
55.0
52.0
56.0
Paraguay
9.1
10.0
8.5
9.0
Bolivia
3.1
3.5
2.7
3.0
Uruguay
3.0
3.5
2.7
2.0
Total
174.2
179.0
168.9
165.5
Dr. Cordonnier 2016-17
Corn Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2015-16

in million metric tons

Brazil
86.0
92.0
84.0
66.0
Argentina
36.0
37.5
32.0
27.0
Paraguay
3.2
4.0
2.7
3.1
Bolivia
0.7
1.0
0.6
0.7
Uruguay
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.4
Total
126.3
130.6
119.6
97.2


Cordonnier also has a neutral to higher bias toward the Argentine corn and soybean crops. He expects soybean harvest to begin in mid-March. "The area that benefited the most from the rain was southern Buenos Aires where the soil moisture has now been recharged from earlier dry weather," he says. "There was probably too much rain in the northern core and southern core regions where some of the soybeans were drowned out in the lower lying regions. There was also some localize flooding reported in Chaco province in northern Argentina."

Meanwhile, Cordonnier says corn harvest in Argentina is off to a slow start due to wet weather. "Most of the early corn that has been harvested is in the provinces of Santa Fe and Entre Rios where good early yields have been reported. The harvest pace will accelerate in coming weeks as more of the early planted corn matures," he says. "The later planted corn is generally in good condition except for some excess moisture in Entre Rios. The later planted corn is transitioning into its reproductive phase with the majority of the crop rated in good conditions with some localized excessive moisture in the province of Chaco in northern Argentina."


 

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