After the Bell | February 4, 2022
Corn: March corn futures rose 3 3/4 cents to $6.20 1/2, down 15 1/2 cents for the week. New-crop December futures rose 5 1/2 cents to $5.73 3/4. Corn futures posted the first weekly decline in the past three weeks in part on concern over demand from China, which canceled a corn purchase of 380,000 MT, USDA reported yesterday. Prices may consolidate early next week as traders wait for USDA’s monthly Supply and Demand Report Feb. 9. USDA is expected to cut its Brazil corn crop estimate to 113.63 MMT from 115 MMT and its Argentina corn estimate to 52.16 MMT from 54 MMT, based on a Reuters survey of analysts.
Soybeans: March soybeans rose 9 1/4 cents to $15.53 1/2, up 83 1/2 cents for the week and the highest settlement for a nearby contract since June. March soymeal rose $6.80 to $443.90 per ton, up $32.70 for the week. March soyoil fell 39 points to 65.36 cents per pound, up 9 points for the week. Soybean futures rose for the third consecutive week on a flurry of export business and a series of private forecaster reductions to South America’s crop outlook. USDA, in its Feb. 9 Supply and Demand report, is expected to lower estimated Brazilian soybean production to 133.65 MMT from 139 MMT. Argentina’s crop estimate is expected to be cut to 44.51 MMT from 46.5 MMT.
Wheat: March SRW wheat rose 11 1/2 cents to $7.63 1/4, down 23 cents from $7.86 1/4 at the end of last week. March HRW rose gained 16 3/4 cents to $7.85 3/4, down 16 1/2 cents for the week. March spring wheat rose 12 1/4 cents to $9.13, down 7 1/4 cents for the week. USDA’s Supply and Demand report Feb. 9 may carry some price impact. USDA is expected to lower its 2021-22 global ending wheat stocks estimate by about 60,000 MT, to 279.89 MMT, underscoring tight supplies for milling-quality wheat. Russia-Ukraine tensions and expanding drought in the U.S. Plains HRW belt will continue to be closely followed next week.
Cotton: March cotton futures fell 88 points to 126.74 cents, up 298 points for the week. The cotton industry will continue to focus on exports next week. USDA’s weekly export sales report yesterday reinforced a bullish outlook, as both old- and new-crop sales topped 300,000 bales. USDA’s Supply and Demand report Feb. 9 will be watched for any changes to the U.S. export and/or carry-out forecasts for 2021-22, as well as any significant shifts in the global situation.
Cattle: April live cattle futures rose 12.5 cents to $146.875, up $3.775 for the week. March feeder futures fell 62.5 cents to $166.10, up $6.475 for the week. Cattle futures gained sharply this week on firmer cash trade and stepped-up slaughter, which lagged year-ago levels in January due to Covid-related worker absences at packing plants. This week’s cattle kill reached an estimated 639,000 head, down 2.0% from the same week in 2021. USDA-reported live steers averaged $139.88 through this morning, up from last week's average of $136.95. Choice cutout values fell $1.65 to $279.81, down sharply from $290.42 at the end of last week. Today's movement was light at 87 loads.
Hogs: April lean hogs climbed $1.70 to $100.075, up $5.15 for the week. Hog futures gained sharply this week behind strengthening cash fundamentals. The next CME lean hog index is expected to rise 97 cents to $84.30, the highest since mid-October. Pork cutout values rose 20 cents today to an average of $97.41, up from $96.39 at the end of last week. Packers slaughtered an estimated 2.436 million head this week, down 8.9% from year-ago levels. So far this year, slaughter trails comparable 2021 levels by 11%, suggesting hog supplies may contract below year-ago levels more than the widely anticipated 6.0% decline.
