Corn and Soybean Planting Intentions Well Shy of Expectations

Posted on Wed, 03/31/2021 - 10:59

Winter wheat plantings rose from what USDA signaled at its Outlook Forum in February, with cotton planting intentions also coming in a bit lighter than analysts anticipated. The planted acreage projections are based on USDA's survey work the first two weeks of March. The following expectations are based on survey work by Reuters.

USDA’s March 1 corn stocks estimate came in 67 million bu. lighter than expected, plus USDA revised its Dec. 1 corn stocks estimate 28 million bu. lighter vs. what was initially reported.

On the other hand, quarterly soybean and wheat stocks came in a bit higher than expected as of March 1, with USDA also raising Dec. 1 stocks vs. what was initially reported. Its Dec. 1 soybean stocks estimate was raised nearly 14 million bu. from what was initially reported. Its Dec. 1 wheat stocks were also raised nearly 29 million bu. from what was previously reported.

 

Prospective Plantings Report

Corn – million acres

USDA

91.144

Average est.

93.208

Pro Farmer/Doane survey

93.400

USDA Outlook Forum

92.000

USDA final 2020

90.819

 

Soybeans – million acres

USDA

87.600

Average est.

89.996

Pro Farmer/Doane survey

88.900

USDA Outlook Forum

90.000

USDA final 2020

83.084

 

All wheat – million acres

USDA

46.358

Average est.

44.971

Pro Farmer/Doane survey

45.400

USDA Outlook Forum

45.000

USDA final 2020

44.349

 

Winter wheat – million acres

USDA

33.078

Average est.

31.811

Pro Farmer/Doane survey

31.991

USDA Outlook Forum

31.991

USDA final 2020

30.415

 

Other spring wheat – million acres

USDA

11.740

Average est.

11.644

Pro Farmer/Doane survey

11.600

USDA Outlook Forum

NA

USDA final 2020

12.250

 

Durum wheat – million acres

USDA

1.540

Average est.

1.641

Pro Farmer/Doane survey

1.800

USDA Outlook Forum

NA

USDA final 2020

1.684

 

Cotton – million acres

USDA

12.036

Average est.

11.905

Pro Farmer/Doane survey

12.200

USDA Outlook Forum

12.100

USDA final 2020

12.093

 

 

 

 

Quarterly Grain Stocks Report

Corn – billion bu.

USDA, March 1, 2021

7.701

Average est. for March 1, 2021

7.767

USDA Dec. 1, 2020

11.294

USDA March 1, 2020

7.952

 

Soybeans – billion bu.

USDA, March 1, 2021

1.564

Average est. for March 1, 2021

1.534

USDA Dec. 1, 2020

2.947

USDA March 1, 2020

2.255

 

Wheat – billion bu.

USDA, March 1, 2021

1.314

Average est. for March 1, 2021

1.272

USDA Dec. 1, 2020

1.674

USDA March 1, 2020

1.415