The National Weather Service (NWS) gives high odds for warm conditions across all but the Pacific Northwest from April through June. Its precip outlook is more varied.
NWS says there above-normal chances for dry conditions from the western U.S. through southwest Dakota down to Texas and across to the Southeast during April, with equal chances for average, below-average and above-normal precipitation in other areas of the country. NWS basically issued a non-forecast for the Midwest, with the exception of southwest South Dakota and Nebraska.
The 90-day precipitation forecast is similar, with a swathe of dryness expected to stretch from the Pacific Northwest to central California across through Louisiana. But the April through June outlook gives equal chances for normal, below- and above-normal precipitation for the Southeast. The longer-term map also adds a patch of green signaling elevated odds for wet weather over the eastern Corn Belt. It offered little guidance for other areas of the Midwest.
The warm, dry forecast for the Central and Southern Plains could spell trouble for winter wheat country. Central areas of the region received a lot of drought-easing rain over the past week, but Texas largely missed out on recent precip.
While a warm spring will help thaw Midwest soils, the market will keep an eye on lingering dryness in the western Corn Belt. The timing of rain will be key in the eastern Corn Belt.