Cordonnier Stays the Course on South American Crop Projections

Posted on Tue, 02/23/2021 - 06:45

Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier made no change to his Brazilian soybean crop estimate of 130 MMT, and his bias is neutral to slightly higher going forward. He says if rains in northern Brazil would “magically” end, his crop estimate could rise 1 MMT to 3 MMT. Drier weather is needed to ensure timely harvest and prevent poor seed quality.

Cordonnier also commented on two issues with Brazil’s 2020-21 bean crop: an unidentified disease in Mato Grosso that seems to cause individual seeds to rot inside of what looks like an ordinary pod and a high amount of sod abortion in soybean fields in Parana.

With the latter, it appears that a period of excessive rain, overcast conditions and a lack of solar radiation are likely to blame. In the most drastic cases, the pod abortion could result in yield losses of 50% to 100%, Cordonnier says. Plus, the pods that were retained are generally small and underdeveloped. The bulk of the pod abortion has occurred in beans planted between Oct. 14 and Oct. 25.

Cordonnier also maintained his Brazilian corn crop projection of 105 MMT and his bias is neutral going forward. The ideal planting window for safrinha corn planting will close by week’s end, meaning at least 60% of the crop will be planted outside that window.

For Argentina, Cordonnier left his bean crop projection at 46 MMT and his corn crop projection at 45.5 MMT. His bias toward both crops is neutral to slightly higher going forward. While January weather was beneficial for crops, Cordonnier notes February will likely be one of the driest in the last 30 years. Cool weather the first half of the month helped save the crop from major moisture stress.