Expected Slowdown in Soybean Export Sales and Shipments Underway

Posted on Fri, 02/19/2021 - 07:31

China was notably absent from the list of top buyers of U.S. soybeans for 2020-21, though it did pick up 63,000 MT of new-crop beans. With Brazilian beans (finally) making their way into export channels, the slowdown was anticipated. Of note, soymeal sales were near the upper end of expectations and up 10% from the prior four-week average, with exports of meal registering a new high for the marketing year. Soyoil sales were light.

Old-crop wheat sales were right in line with expectations, but new-crop wheat sales were quite a bit stronger than expected. The story was similar for corn, with Mexico as the top buyer for both marketing years.

Cotton export sales slowed notably this week, which was not overly surprising after aggressive sales last week and considering the Chinese Lunar New Year kicked off late last week. Shipments were decent at 311,800 MT, however.

Beef and pork export sales were solid the week ending Feb. 11, with China listed as one of the top buyers for both meats.

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report

Week Ended Feb. 11, 2021

Corn

Actual Sales (in MT)

Combined: 1,181,800
2020-21: 999,200
2021-22: 182,600

Expectations (in MT)

2020-21: 800,000-1,200,000
2021-22: 0-150,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 999,200 MT for 2020-21 were down 31% from the previous week and 67% from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (226,500 MT, including decreases of 3,600 MT), Costa Rica (183,300 MT), Guatemala (129,600 MT, including 3,200 MT switched from El Salvador and 1,500 MT switched from Nicaragua), Japan (129,600 MT, including 4,700 MT switched from unknown destinations), and South Korea (122,700 MT, including decreases of 5,400 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (242,500 MT).  For 2021-22, net sales of 182,600 MT were reported for Mexico (90,000 MT), Costa Rica (59,700 MT), and Japan (32,900 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 1,387,100 MT were down 11% from the previous week, but up 14% from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (247,100 MT), Japan (236,200 MT), South Korea (182,800 MT), Colombia (114,800 MT), and Peru (83,500 MT).

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments are 134% ahead of year-ago, which compares to 142% ahead last week. USDA projects exports in 2020-21 at 2.600 billion bu., up 46.2% from the previous marketing year.

Wheat

Actual Sales (in MT)

Combined: 613,500
2020-21: 399,100
2021-22: 214,400

Expectations (in MT)

2020-21: 250,000-650,000
2021-22: 0-50,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 399,100 metric tons (MT) for 2020-21 were down 33% from the previous week and 18% from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Nigeria (138,000 MT), China (131,700 MT), South Korea (85,500 MT), Japan (61,300 MT), and Algeria (40,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions primarily for the United Arab Emirates (40,000 MT) and unknown destinations (35,000 MT).  For 2021-22, net sales of 214,400 MT were primarily for the Philippines (70,000 MT), the United Arab Emirates (40,000 MT), Mexico (33,000 MT), and Nigeria (30,000 MT). 

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 379,700 MT were down 14% from the previous week and 11% from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (127,500 MT), Mexico (105,000 MT), China (66,700 MT), South Korea (30,300 MT), and Venezuela (16,500 MT).  

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments are 5% ahead of year-ago compared with 5% ahead of year-ago the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2020-21 at 985 million bu., up 2.1% from the previous marketing year.

Soybeans

Actual Sales (in MT)

Combined: 623,900
2020-21: 455,900
2021-22: 168,000

Expectations (in MT)

2020-21: 300,000-900,000
2021-22: 50,000-300,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 455,900 MT for 2020-21 were down 43% from the previous week and 53% from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Indonesia (92,900 MT, including 67,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 500 MT), the Netherlands (85,700 MT, including 79,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (71,000 MT, including decreases of 2,800 MT), Germany (57,500 MT), and Costa Rica (56,500 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (37,500 MT).  For 2021-22, net sales of 168,000 MT were reported for Taiwan (68,000 MT), China (63,000 MT), Costa Rica (29,000 MT), unknown destinations (5,000 MT), and Japan (3,000 MT). 

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 1,000,200 MT were down 55% from the previous week and 54% from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (400,300 MT) Mexico (124,500 MT), Indonesia (87,400 MT), the Netherlands (85,700 MT), and Italy (72,000 MT).

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments are 79% ahead of year-ago early in the marketing year, which compares to 81% ahead the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2020-21 at 2.250 billion bu., up 33.8% from year-ago.

Soymeal

Actual Sales (in MT)

2020-21: 322,200

Expectations

2020-21: 100,000-350,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 322,200 MT for 2020-21 were up 22% from the previous week and 10% from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for the Philippines (92,800 MT), Guatemala (58,000 MT, including 6,000 MT switched from Honduras, 1,400 MT switched from Nicaragua, and decreases of 100 MT), Morocco (37,600 MT, including decreases of 2,400 MT), Honduras (34,500 MT, including 6,000 MT switched from Costa Rica and decreases of 6,800 MT), and Denmark (30,000 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Peru (7,000 MT) and Colombia (3,000 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 368,700 MT--a marketing-year high-- were up 47% from the previous week and 42% from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Colombia (62,400 MT), the Philippines (50,800 MT), Vietnam (48,600 MT), Italy (46,300 MT), and Denmark (33,000 MT). 

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments are 1% ahead of year-ago, which compares to 1% behind the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2020-21 will climb 1.2% from the previous marketing year.

Soyoil

Actual Sales (in MT)

2020-21: 4,400

Expectations

2020-21: 5,000-25,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 4,400 MT for 2020-21 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 79% from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Guatemala (4,000 MT), Venezuela (500 MT), the Dominican Republic (300 MT), and Mexico (200 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Peru (600 MT) and Colombia (100 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 18,600 MT were down 47% from the previous week and 39% from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Colombia (8,000 MT), Peru (5,200 MT), the Dominican Republic (4,300 MT), Canada (800 MT), and Mexico (300 MT).

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments for 2020-21 are 14% behind year-ago, which compares to 9% behind year-ago the week prior. USDA projects exports will dip 3.1% this season.

Cotton

Actual Sales (in RB)

Combined: 121,600
2020-21: 119,500
2021-22: 2,100

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 119,500 RB for 2020-21 were down 57% from the previous week and 59% from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (44,100 RB), Vietnam (27,200 RB, including 700 RB switched from South Korea, 200 RB switched from Japan, and decreases of 100 RB), Bangladesh (18,300 RB), Pakistan (7,200 RB), and Turkey (6,900 RB), were offset by reductions primarily for Mexico (4,000 RB) and Nicaragua (400 RB).  For 2021-22, net sales of 2,100 RB resulting in increases for Turkey (11,000 RB), were offset by reductions for Bangladesh (8,900 RB).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 311,800 RB were down 28% from the previous week and 8% from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to Vietnam (90,000 RB), China (82,300 RB), Pakistan (26,700 RB), Turkey (25,600 RB), and Mexico (19,800 RB). 

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments are 2% behind 2019-20, which compares to 1% behind year-ago last week. USDA forecasts total cotton exports will dip just 0.2% from year-ago to 15.5 million bales this marketing year.

Beef

Actual Sales (in MT)

2021: 22,900

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 22,900 MT reported for 2021, were primarily for South Korea (9,600 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Japan (3,500 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Canada (3,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), China (2,400 MT), and Mexico (1,200 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 15,500 MT were primarily to Japan (5,100 MT), South Korea (3,900 MT), China (1,800 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT). 

Comments and Performance Indicators

USDA reported sales of 17,500 MT last week. USDA projects 2021 exports will climb 6.4% from year-ago levels.

Pork

Actual Sales (in MT)

2021: 33,300

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 33,300 MT reported for 2021 were down 10% from the previous week and 27% from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Japan (9,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (8,400 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), South Korea (3,000 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), China (2,500 MT, including decreases of 1,300 MT), and the Philippines (2,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). 

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 39,800 MT were up 5% from the previous week and 2% from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (13,100 MT), Mexico (10,000 MT), Japan (5,300 MT), Canada (2,600 MT), and South Korea (2,300 MT).  

Comments and Performance Indicators

USDA reported net sales of 36,900 MT last week. USDA projects exports in 2021 will edge just 1.5% lower.