Attachés Weigh in on South American Bean Crops

Posted on Thu, 01/07/2021 - 07:52

A U.S. attaché in Brazil still estimates the country’s 2020-21 soybean crop at 131.5 MMT. The post comments that while dry weather delayed this season’s sowing by as much as six weeks in some areas of the country, “it is too early to re-assess the yield forecast.” The attaché continues to expect Brazil to export 85 MMT in 2020-21, which would top its 2019-20 shipments by 3.3 MMT. “With a voracious appetite for Brazilian soybeans by China, Brazilian soy stocks will hover at less than 1% of the domestic supply,” the attaché comments.

Analysts polled by Reuters expect USDA to trim its Brazilian bean crop estimate from 133.00 MMT to 131.42 MMT next week.

Dry weather will likely limit Argentina’s soybean crop to 50 MMT, says a U.S. attaché in the country; this represents a 1-MMT decline from its previous update. The post details that “providently timed rains have allowed emergence amid positive early oilseed crop conditions, but the absence of significant soil profile moisture in much of the country means that farmers will be dependent on timely rains to meet yield goals.”

The post also comments that high inflation and producers’ belief that another devaluation of the peso is inevitable is encouraging them to store rather than sell soybeans. Argentine soybean exports will likely total 7 MMT in 2020-21, up 4.4% from estimates exports in 2019-20, the attaché forecasts.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect USDA to lower its Argentine soybean crop projection from 50.00 MMT to 48.44 MMT.