Soybean Rating Again Surprises to the Upside

Posted on Mon, 08/03/2020 - 16:33

USDA reports 92% of the U.S. corn crop was silking as of Sunday, which was a 10-point gain from last week and five points ahead of the five-year average. Thirty-nine percent of the crop was in dough (versus the usual 33%). That included 43% of the Illinois crop (47% on average), along with 37% of the Indiana crop (31%), 44% of the Iowa crop (32%), 53% of Kansas’ (41%), 37% of Minnesota’s (25%), 43% of Nebraska’s (31%) and 32% of South Dakota’s (23%). 

USDA again rated 72% of the U.S. corn crop “good” to “excellent” (G/E) and 7% “poor” to “very poor” (P/VP), unchanged from last week and right in line with expectations.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

2

2

3

Poor

5

5

10

Fair

21

21

30

Good

55

55

47

Excellent

17

17

10

 

Another upside surprise on beans

As of Sunday, USDA reports 85% of the U.S. soybean crop was blooming and 59% of it was setting pods, which compares to 82% and 54% for the respective five-year averages. Illinois has 52% of the crop setting pods (55% on average), with Indiana at 54% (51%) Iowa at 70% (57%), Minnesota at 74% (63%), Missouri at 37% (32%), Nebraska at 64% (53%) and South Dakota at 64% (52%).

USDA again surprised with an unusual increase in crop condition ratings, adding another percentage point to the “good” category to push the overall G/E rating up to 73%. Analysts surveyed by Reuters on average expected a steady 72% rating. Recent cooler weather and some timely rains did the U.S. soybean crop some good.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

1

1

3

Poor

5

5

10

Fair

21

22

33

Good

58

57

45

Excellent

15

15

9

 

Spring wheat ratings improve as harvest slowly picks up

Spring wheat harvest advanced four percentage points over the past week to 5% complete, versus expectations for harvest to reach 8% finished and the five-year average completion rate of 10%.

Analysts were also off with their expectation USDA would maintain its G/E rating at 70%; instead, the department raised the amount of top-rated spring wheat three percentage points, with crop ratings now in line with year-ago levels.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

1

2

0

Poor

4

4

5

Fair

22

24

22

Good

62

60

63

Excellent

11

10

10

 

Cotton ratings tumble

USDA reports 91% of the U.S. cotton crop was squaring as of Sunday, with 54% of it setting bolls, with both figures near in line with the norm for this point in the season. Forty-five percent of the Texas crop was setting bolls (43% on average), along with 76% of the Georgia crop (75%).

After recent weeks of stabilization/improvement in cotton condition ratings, the amount of crop rated G/E tumbled four percentage points to 45%. Just 25% of the Texas crop receives top marks. Texas’ state report again noted some cotton acres were plowed under due to poor conditions.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

3

3

1

Poor

13

13

12

Fair

39

35

33

Good

36

40

44

Excellent

9

9

10

 

Winter wheat harvest creeps ahead

As has been the trend, winter wheat harvest advanced more slowly than anticipated over the past week, inching just four points ahead to 85% complete. Analysts polled by Reuters expected USDA to report harvest was 89% complete.