Corn, Soybean and Spring Wheat Ratings Fall Short of Expectations

Posted on Mon, 07/13/2020 - 15:55

Recent heat and dryness had a bigger impact than anticipated, but the week-to-week dips were still relatively modest. 

USDA reports 29% of the U.S. corn crop was silking as of July 12, a 19-point gain from the week prior but still three points behind the five-year average. That includes 36% of the crop in Illinois (52% on average), 30% in Indiana (31%), 35% in Iowa (27%), 47% in Kansas (46%), 21% in Minnesota (15%), 19% in Nebraska (29%) and 16% in South Dakota (13%). Three percent of the crop is in dough, which is right in line with the five-year average.

USDA rated 69% of the U.S. corn crop in “good” to “excellent” (G/E) condition as of Sunday, which was a two-point slide from the week prior whereas analysts anticipated a one-point drop. Ratings are still well above year-ago when just 58% of the crop fell in the top two categories.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

2

1

3

Poor

6

5

9

Fair

23

23

30

Good

52

54

48

Excellent

17

17

10

 

Soybean ratings also a bit lower than expected

USDA reports 48% of the U.S. soybean crop was blooming as of Sunday, which is eight points ahead of the five-year average. Eleven percent of the crop is setting pods, which is also a point ahead of the norm. Most of the top-producing states have around 10% of the crop setting pods. South Dakota is on the high side with 14% of the crop setting pods versus the usual 4%. North Dakota is on the low side with 2% of the crop setting pods versus the usual 5%.

Heat and dryness had a bigger impact on the U.S. soybean crop over the past week than anticipated. USDA now rates 68% of the crop G/E, a three-point drop from last week, whereas traders expected a one-point decline.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

2

1

3

Poor

5

4

9

Fair

25

24

34

Good

54

57

46

Excellent

14

14

8

 

Surprise drop in spring wheat ratings

USDA delivered yet another surprise with its spring wheat rating, with the amount of top-rated wheat dipping two percentage points to 68%. Analysts expected no change after rains in the Northern Plains over the past week. In addition, the amount of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” (P/VP) rose two points to 8%. Last year at this point in the season, 76% of the crop was rated G/E, with 4% falling in the P/VP categories.

The Dakotas have the least amount of wheat rated in the top two categories, with North Dakota rating 61% of the crop G/E and South Dakota rating 59% of the crop G/E.

Eighty percent of the spring wheat crop was headed as of July 12, which is five points behind the norm for this point in the season.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

2

1

0

Poor

6

5

4

Fair

24

24

20

Good

57

59

66

Excellent

11

11

10

 

Mixed signals from cotton ratings update

USDA reports 63% of the crop was squaring as of Sunday, which was a point ahead of the average, and 18% was setting bolls versus the usual 21%. Sixteen percent of the Texas crop was setting bolls, which is a point above the five-year average.

Condition ratings were a bit of a mixed bag this week. The amount of top-rated cotton climbed another percentage point this week to 44% G/E. But it’s also worth noting that the amount of crop rated P/VP rose three points to 26%. Texas has 23% of its crop rated G/E, with 41% of its crop falling in the lowest two categories.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

4

4

3

Poor

22

19

12

Fair

30

34

29

Good

36

36

47

Excellent

8

7

9

 

Winter wheat harvest falls a bit short of expectations

Winter wheat harvest advanced 12 percentage points to 68% complete as of Sunday. While that wasn’t quite as advanced as analysts surveyed by Reuters anticipated, it still exceeded the five-year average by two percentage points. Kansas is in the final stages of harvest, with 95% of the crop cut.