Cordonnier Maintains U.S. Corn and Soybean Crop Projections, Raises Safrinha Corn Crop

Posted on Tue, 06/30/2020 - 10:40

Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier continues to project the U.S. corn crop at 15.65 billion bu. on an average yield of 179.5 bu. per acre, and his bias is neutral going forward. He says that while some localized dryness is developing, “there isn’t a widespread threat, at least for now.” But he adds,If the predicted high-pressure ridge develops over the Midwest and it persists for an extended period of time, that would be a worrisome development.”

Cordonnier also stuck with his U.S. soybean yield projection of 51 bu. per acre for a 4.29 billion bu. crop. Again, his bias going forward is neutral. “It is hard to pinpoint any major concerns with the U.S. soybean crop other than some pockets of dryness,” he says, acknowledging that the highest rated beans are in the western Corn Belt and the lowest in the eastern Corn Belt.

Consultant hikes Brazilian corn crop estimate on higher safrinha corn acres

Also of note, Cordonnier raised his Brazilian corn crop estimate by 2 MMT this week to 98 MMT, and his bias is neutral to slightly higher going forward. The increase came on increased safrinha corn acres in Mato Grosso where “it appears that the safrinha corn acreage in the state increased over 11%,” according to Cordonnier.

He explains, “It appears the farmers in the state switched some of their intended cotton acreage to safrinha corn instead.” And rains during late May and June for southern Brazil raised yield prospects for some of the latest-planted safrinha corn. ARC Mercosul reports 15.1% of the safrinha corn crop had been harvested as of late last week.

Cordonnier made no change to his Brazilian soybean crop estimate of 121 MMT and his bias is neutral going forward. He also maintained his Argentine soybean crop estimate of 50 MMT and his corn crop estimate of 49 MMT, with a neutral bias toward both crops.