Corn and Soybean Ratings Edge Higher

Posted on Mon, 06/29/2020 - 16:06

But the dive in spring wheat ratings was a surprise. 

As expected, USDA rated 73% of the U.S. corn crop in “good” to “excellent” (G/E) condition as of Sunday, which was a one-point improvement from the week prior. Last year at this time, just 56% of the crop was rated in the top two categories.

Four percent of the U.S. corn crop was silking as of Sunday, which is just a two-point gain from last week and three points behind the five-year average. That includes 1% of the Illinois crop (8% for the five-year average), 2% of Indiana’s (5% average), 1% of Iowa’s (1%), 9% of Kansas (16%) and 1% of Nebraska’s (3%). None of the Minnesota or South Dakota crops are silking, as is usual for this point in the season.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

1

1

3

Poor

4

4

9

Fair

22

23

32

Good

57

57

47

Excellent

16

15

9

 

Unexpected uptick in soybean ratings

USDA now rates 71% of the U.S. soybean crop in G/E condition, which was a one-point gain from last week. Analysts surveyed by Reuters expected no change. Last year at this time, USDA rated just 54% of the crop in the top two categories. The increase in ratings runs counter to the trend for this point in the season.

USDA reports 95% of the U.S. soybean crop had emerged as of June 28, which is four points ahead of the five-year average for late-June. The only states where emergence is less than 90% are Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, North Dakota and Tennessee.

USDA says 14% of the crop is blooming, which is three points ahead of the five-year average. Illinois and Indiana have 10% of the crop blooming (vs. 12% and 8% on average, respectively), with Iowa at 16% (7%), Minnesota at 7% (4%), Missouri at 6% (7%), Nebraska at 27% (12%) and North Dakota at 1% (9% on average).

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

1

1

2

Poor

4

4

9

Fair

24

25

35

Good

58

58

47

Excellent

13

12

7

 

Spring wheat ratings take another unexpected dive

USDA’s spring wheat rating once again surprised to the downside, signaling expanding dryness in the region has had a far greater impact on the crop than analysts anticipated. USDA slashed the amount of spring wheat it rates G/E by six percentage points to 69%. Analysts polled by Reuters on average expected no change from last week. Since mid-June, spring wheat ratings have tumbled 12 points.

As of Sunday, 36% of the crop was headed, which lags the five-year average by nine percentage points. That included 30% of North Dakota’s crop.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

1

1

1

Poor

5

3

3

Fair

25

21

21

Good

60

68

67

Excellent

9

7

8

 

Texas cotton ratings continue to slide

USDA reports 35% of the U.S. cotton crop was squaring on Sunday (vs. 36% on average), with 9% of the crop setting bolls (7% on average), signaling development of the crop is pretty typical.

But crop ratings remain subpar. USDA now rates 41% of the crop G/E, a one-point improvement from last week but still 11 points under last year at this point in the season. Rains in some areas of the country aided ratings. But that was not the case for top-producing Texas. USDA now rates just 21% of its crop G/E, a two-point decline from last week.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

6

7

5

Poor

18

18

13

Fair

35

35

30

Good

35

33

45

Excellent

6

7

7

 

Winter wheat harvest creeping toward half complete

Winter wheat harvest once again advanced less than expected, with 41% of the crop cut as of Sunday versus expectations USDA would say 44% of the crop had been cut. Texas and Oklahoma are nearing completion at 96% and 95% complete, respectively. Kansas is nearing half complete, with 47% of the crop cut as of Sunday versus the five-year average of 51% complete.

USDA once again rated 52% of the crop G/E, unchanged from last week, as expected.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

5

5

3

Poor

11

12

7

Fair

32

31

27

Good

42

43

48

Excellent

10

9

15