Anhydrous Softer on the Week

Posted on 04/15/2020 6:25 AM

 

This week, anhydrous ammonia and UAN32% are down slightly. 32% makes sense as it is, and has been overpriced compared to anhydrous. We also saw 28% and urea firm on the week. UAN28% is likely higher on demand for preplant cocktails, although by that logic anhydrous ammonia should be higher as well. Word has been circulating for some time that spring fertilizer supplies are ample around the Midwest, and availability is not expected to be a problem. This week's price action would support that.anhydrous ammonia price chart

This week's weather related pause in fieldwork across swaths of farm country will help preserve existing supplies and may even give shippers a little extra time to resupply as necessary or move product to areas at the far ends of the supply chain. Looking ahead, 32% is going to have to correct lower -- roughly 3-5% if it is to fully correct to anhydrous. Demand for 32% will pick up in earnest closer to sidedress season, but as NH3 has shown us this week, immediate demand does not necessarily guarantee a higher price.

As always, I recommend you communicate your intentions with your preferred retailer. That might actually be a little easier under COVID-19 restrictions as conversations may tend to be a bit more concise. No more cups of coffee at the co-op, no more long conversations, "what ifs" or "maybe a guy shoulds..." It may even come down to you crafting an email about your post-plant fertilizer needs -- I would also recommend, if you do communicate by email to give it a few hours and then call and make sure the recipient has seen it.

We may soon find ourselves in a position to just roll up and talk to people again. The President is certainly anxious to get everyone back to moving about freely. Until then, communication is still the best ally to preparedness.

  • Fertilizer prices were mixed with Urea and UAN28% firming on the week.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) firmed 2.52 points to 539.19.
Fertilizer
3/28/20
4/6/20
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$509.08
$510.91
-26 cents
$510.65
Anhydrous
DAP
$427.68
$420.14
+60 cents
$420.74
DAP
MAP
$413.75
$420.37
-53 cents
$419.84
MAP
Potash
$359.08
$360.35
-35 cents
$360.00
Potash
UAN28
$238.29
$238.02
+$4.90
$242.92
UAN28
UAN32
$275.86
$275.61
-$1.11
$274.50
UAN32
Urea
$370.62
$372.20
+$6.57
$378.77
Urea
Composite
536.10
536.67
+2.52
539.19
Composite

Corn Futures

  • December 2020 corn futures closed Friday April 10 at $3.50 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $572.00 per acre, unchanged on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 539.19 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread narrowed 2.52 points and stands at -32.81.nitrogen indices chart

Nitrogen

  • Nitrogen prices were mixed with urea and UAN28% moderately higher.
  • Urea led gains in the segment with Indiana up $25.71 as Iowa gained $10.32 per short ton. Wisconsin fell $4.72 and Illinois softened $1.62. All other states were higher on the week. According to MosaicCo., in the week ended April 10, wholesale urea firmed moderately at the NOLA terminal.
  • UAN28% firmed $4.90 with Missouri up $26.86 and Wisconsin $11.40 higher. All states posted a higher 28% price this week as well.
  • UAN32% softened $1.11 on the week with Missouri falling $17.50 and Iowa of $1.61. Indiana gained $2.86 and Kansas added $1.13. All other states were higher o unchanged on the week.
  • Anhydrous ammonia softened 26 cents per short ton regionally with Iowa down 9 bucks and Nebraska falling $2.72. North Dakota firmed $6.96 as Indiana gained $2.64.

Phosphatep and k indices chart

  • Phosphates were mixed this week.
  • DAP firmed slightly led by a $11.00 rise in South Dakota as Indiana gained 4 bucks. Wisconsin offset gains falling $13.20 and Iowa fell 24 cents per short ton. All other states were higher or unchanged.
  • MAP softened 53 cents per short ton regionally with Wisconsin off $12.50, North Dakota softening $10.00 and Michigan down $4.80. Indiana MAP firmed $11.34 and Missouri gained $9.43.
  • According to MosaicCo., during the report week wholesale DAP and MAP were higher or sideways at U.S. terminals.
  • The early season demand push for phosphates is likely coming to an end. Where prices go from here will be up to the wholesale market, but supplies are ample in the Midwest which should help keep a lid on retail prices for the time being.

Potash

  • Potash softened slightly regionally.
  • South Dakota softened $10.90 as North Dakota fell $3.97. Missouri led gains in potash firming $7.86 and Wisconsin gaining $4.15.
  • During the report week, wholesale potash softened at U.S. terminals.

nutrient composite index chart


 

 

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