Cordonnier Makes Another Cut to His Brazilian Soybean Crop Estimate

Posted on Tue, 03/24/2020 - 09:54

South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut 1 MMT from his Brazilian soybean crop estimate, dropping his tally to 122 MMT. His bias is neutral to lower going forward.

He explains the main reason for his cut is dry conditions returned to Rio Grande do Sul after scattered rains provided just a brief respite, and more heat and dryness is expected at least through week’s end. The other reason for the reduction is variable yield reports out of Bahia.

The agribusiness consultancy AgRural reported soybean harvest was 66% complete as of Sunday, which compares to 67% complete last year at this time. It details that harvest is nearly complete in top-producing Mato Grosso and nearing complete in Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias.

Cordonnier stuck with his Brazilian corn crop estimate of 98 MMT, but his bias is lower going forward due to the dry start for the safrinha corn crop in southern production areas. 

Planting of Brazil’s safrinha (second) corn crop was 96% complete for the Center-South region as of Thursday, AgRural detailed. That’s just a point behind the five-year average for this time of year.

Elevated corn prices thanks to a weak Brazilian currency relative to the U.S. dollars gave producers to continue planting beyond the ideal planting window, with AgRural reporting that the ideal window is now closed even in places where the safrinha crop is sowed late.

Cordonnier made no change to his Argentine soybean or corn crop estimates that stand at 51 MMT and 49 MMT, respectively, but his bias toward both crops is neutral to lower going forward.

Drier areas of the country received enough rain to recharge soil moisture, he notes, but the rains came too late for a meaningful recovery of early planted soybeans or corn. Cordonnier points out that the Argentine soybean crop has dropped from 71% good to excellent three weeks ago to just 35% good to excellent.