Anhydrous, Urea Softer on the Week

Posted on 02/21/2020 10:34 AM

 

NOTE: We updated our advice on booking spring phosphate and walked through our thoughts on booking potash and nitrogen last week in a post titled "Near-term Fertilizer Outlook | Advice Updated." Click the link to read our advice and our analysis, but the short version is nitrogen and phosphates are priced at a healthy discount to the same time last year and are setting up to firm seasonally. We advised booking spring phosphate last week at current prices. We also issued "soft advice" to consider booking nitrogen and potash at the same time, but stopped short of calling a bottom in anhydrous. We expect to issue more concrete advice to book spring/summer nitrogen in a week or two, but there is no reason not to book N this week as the downside is likely limited by seasonality.

  • Fertilizer prices were mostly higher although urea and anhydrous ammonia softened.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) firmed 1.76 points this week to 532.04.nitrogen indices chart

Nitrogen

  • Urea led declines in the nitrogen segment falling $4.08 per short ton. Most states were higher on the week, but a sharp corrective downside move in Wisconsin pulled the regional average lower.
  • Anhydrous ammonia was lower as well with Wisconsin off more than $60 per short ton and Kansas down $7.72. Indiana firmed $45.97 as Michigan firmed $5.36.
  • UAN solutions were higher on the week with 28% up on strength in Michigan and Indiana as 32% was led higher by Nebraska and Kansas. Price declines in each were small.

Phosphate

  • Phosphates were higher on the week led by MAP.
  • MAP firmed on strength in Indiana and Wisconsin as Nebraska fell $7.89 and Iowa softened 15 cents.
  • DAP was higher with Michigan and Wisconsin each up roughly 13 bucks and Illinois and Minnesota falling a combined 58 cents per short ton.
  • According to MosaicCo., wholesale phosphates were mixed with Tampa DAP up, NOLA DAP softer and Central p and k indices chartFlorida DAP sideways on the week. Wholesale MAP was higher at NOLA in the week ended February 14.

Potash

  • Potash firmed $2 on the week led by Michigan and Wisconsin as North Dakota softened $1 and Illinois softened a penny per short ton.
  • During the report week, MosaicCo. reports wholesale potash prices softened at all reporting locations.
  • Our indexed potash figure this week remains tied very closely to our Nutrient Composite Index, which indicates pending upside risk for anhydrous prices.

Corn Futures

  • December 2020 corn futures closed Friday February 14 at $3.88 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $638.88 per acre.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 532.04 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread narrowed 12.32 points and stands at -106.84.
Fertilizer
2/3/20
2/10/20
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$507.53
$506.93
-$2.56
$504.37
Anhydrous
DAP
$413.38
$418.48
+$2.24
$420.71
DAP
MAP
$403.40
$405.65
+$6.14
$411.80
MAP
Potash
$360.14
$360.65
+$2.01
$362.66
Potash
UAN28
$237.16
$237.52
+$1.25
$238.77
UAN28
UAN32
$273.68
$274.43
+$2.45
$276.88
UAN32
Urea
$359.07
$361.04
-$4.08
$356.97
Urea
Composite
528.18
530.28
+1.76
532.04
Composite

nutrient composite index chart

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