USDA Cuts to Soybean and Wheat Carryover Top Expectations

Posted on Tue, 02/11/2020 - 11:06

But the department made no change to its U.S. corn or cotton carryover estimates versus January.

Expectations in the tables that follow are based on survey work by Reuters (Bloomberg for cotton).

U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

 

2019-20

USDA

1.892

Average est.

1.864

USDA January

1.892

 

Soybeans – million bushels

 

2019-20

USDA

425

Average est.

443

USDA January

475

 

Wheat – million bushels

 

2019-20

USDA

940

Average est.

954

USDA January

965

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2019-20

USDA

5.40

Average est.*

5.31

USDA January

5.40

 

Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

 

2019-20

USDA

296.84

World less China

97.77

Average est.

297.19

USDA January

297.81

 

Soybeans – MMT

 

2019-20

USDA

98.86

World less China

77.13

Average est.

96.90

USDA January

96.67

 

Wheat – MMT

 

2018-19

USDA

288.03

World less China

139.78

Average est.

287.44

USDA January

288.08

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2018-19

USDA

82.12

World less China

48.38

Average est. *

79.58

USDA January

79.59

 

Global Production Highlights

Corn – MMT

 

2018-19

February (January)

2019-20

February (January)

U.S.

364.26 (364.26)

 347.78 (347.78)

Argentina

51.00 (51.00)

50.00 (50.00)

Brazil

 101.00 (101.00)

 101.00 (101.00)

South Africa

11.80 (11.80)

 14.50 (14.00)

Ukraine

35.81 (35.81)

35.80 (35.50)

China

257.33 (257.33)

 260.77 (260.77)

Soybeans – MMT

 

2018-19

February (January)

2019-20

February (January)

U.S.

 120.52 (120.52)

96.84 (96.84)

Argentina

         55.30 (55.30)

53.00 (53.00)

Brazil

117.00 (117.00)

 125.00 (123.00)

Paraguay

 8.85 (8.85)

9.90 (10.20)

China

15.97 (15.97)

18.10 (18.10)

Wheat – MMT

 

2018-19

February (January)

2019-20

February (January)

U.S.

51.31 (51.31)

52.26 (52.26)

Argentina

19.50 (19.50)

19.00 (19.00)

Australia

        17.30 (17.30)

15.60 (15.60)

Canada

32.20 (32.20)

 32.35 (32.35)

EU

136.86 (136.86)

154.00 (154.00)

Russia

71.69 (71.69)

 73.50 (73.50)

Ukraine

25.06 (25.06)

29.00 (29.00)

Cotton – million bales

 

2018-19

February (January)

2019-20

February (January)

U.S.

18.37 (18.37)

20.10 (20.10)

Australia

2.20 (2.20)

0.68 (0.68)

Brazil

13.00 (12.52)

12.70 (12.50)

India

25.80 (25.80)

29.50 (29.50)

China

27.75 (27.75)

 27.25 (27.25)