U.S./China Officials on Wednesday to Sign Phase 1 Trade Agreement

Posted on 01/13/2020 5:27 AM

Senate impeachment timeline | USMCA | EU trade chief visits

Key Washington event this week comes Wednesday when U.S. and Chinese officials sign the Phase 1 trade accord, with a host of people invited to attend the White House event, which will also include the announcement of semiannual talks to push for economic reform and resolve disputes.

 

The House will prepare to send impeachment charges against President Trump to the Senate. A House vote on a resolution that names impeachment managers and delivers documents to the Senate would automatically trigger Trump's trial.

House members will vote on bills aimed at preventing age discrimination in the workplace and blocking student loan policies of Education Sec. Betsy DeVos.

The Senate will consider the nomination of Peter Gaynor to lead FEMA and will prepare for an impeachment trial.

The Senate impeachment trial could begin as soon as Wednesday but will likely take weeks to unfold. After Republicans refused to negotiate over witnesses, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) announced that she would start the process to hand over the articles of impeachment. While there still could be witnesses, four Republicans would have to join with all Democrats later in the trial and vote to have them.

Pelosi, in a letter to her House Democratic colleagues, wrote: “I have asked Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler to be prepared to bring to the floor next [this] week a resolution to appoint managers and transmit articles of impeachment to the Senate. I will be consulting with you at our Tuesday House Democratic Caucus meeting on how we proceed further.” “About time,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said when asked by a reporter.

Trade policy events of note. Key focus is Wednesday's signing ceremony at the White House between U.S. and Chinese officials regarding Phase 1 of the trade accord (see Policy Updates for details). Meanwhile, the Senate USMCA vote timeline remains murky, with the Senate impeachment process likely delaying the trade accord ratification vote into February.

  • EU trade chief. Tuesday-Thursday: EU’s new trade chief, Phil Hogan, visits Washington in bid to repair frayed trade relations with U.S.; plans to meet with U.S. Trade Representative Bob Lighthizer On Thursday, Hogan speaks on his new role at a CSIS-hosted event.
  • China.
    — Monday:
    China Vice Premier Liu He arrives for the signing Wednesday of the Phase 1 trade agreement.
    Wednesday: U.S. and Chinese officials are expected to sign Phase 1 of a trade agreement. A signing ceremony will be held at the White House and the Trump administration has invited at least 200 people to the Jan. 15 signing ceremony. U.S. officials are expected to release a fact sheet and text of the 86-page, nine-chapter report, with 27 pages expected to cover agriculture.
  • USMCA: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has said the Senate will vote on the bill after completing the impeachment trial of President Trump but Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) says action could occur sooner if all committees finish review before the trial starts. Finance Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said the six other committees with shared jurisdiction for the USMCA bill (HR 5430) could finish their reviews by this Thursday (the Finance Committee approved the measure last week, 25-3. Grassley said the Senate parliamentarian surprised him by requiring the reviews but noted he doesn't question God or the parliamentarian. The House passed the USMC ratification measure 385-41 in December.
    — Tuesday: Senate Budget Committee considers legislation to implement the U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade accord.
    — Tuesday: Senate Environment and Public Works Committee meeting to consider the USMCA.
    Wednesday: Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee markup of HR 5430, USMCA.
    Wednesday: Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee markup of HR 5430, USMCA.
    — Thursday: Senate Foreign Relations Committee meeting to consider the USMCA.

Foreign Policy: Several hearings take place regarding Iran.

  • Iran. Tuesday: House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on the Trump administration’s Iran policy.
  • Iran. Wednesday: House Homeland Security Committee hearing on U.S.-Iran tensions.
  • Pakistan. Thursday: Asad Khan, Pakistan’s ambassador to the U.S., speaks on Pakistan/U.S. ties at CSIS.

Other events include:

  • Democratic presidential debate. Tuesday: Democratic presidential debate in Des Moines. As of Friday, at least six candidates had qualified to participate: Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, Tom Steyer. Sanders held a slim lead in Iowa in a poll published Friday, while recent polls in New Hampshire have found the leading candidates closely bunched.
  • Cannabis policy. Tuesday: House Energy and Commerce subcommittee hearing, “Cannabis Policies for the New Decade.
  • IMF. Friday: IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva unveils research on the financial services sector and income inequality at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Economic reports and Federal Reserve appearances for the week include:

Monday:
— Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks with former president Dennis Lockhart at Atlanta Rotary event.
— Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren speaks before the Connecticut Business and Industry Association's "Economic Summit and Outlook 2020."
— U.S. Treasury Budget

Tuesday:
— New York Fed President John Williams will moderate a discussion on "Behavioral Science and Organizational Culture" before the "Working Together: An Interdisciplinary Approach to Organizational Culture" event organized by the Banking Standards Board, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and London School of Economics in London.
— Kansas City Fed President Esther George speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook before The Central Exchange.
— Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the Consumer Price Index for December. Expectations are for a 2.3% year-over-year rise, following November’s 2.1% gain. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is also seen rising 2.3%, even with the November figure.
— The National Federation of Independent Business reports its Small Business Optimism Index for December. Consensus estimates are for a 104.9 reading, roughly even with November’s data.

Wednesday:
— Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker speaks on "Monetary Policy Normalization: Low Interest Rates and the New Normal" before the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in New York.
— Robert Kaplan, president and chief executive officer of Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, speaks before the Economic Club of New York Signature luncheon.
— MBA Mortgage Applications
— BLS releases the Producer Price Index for December. Economists forecast a 1.4% year-over-year gain and a 1.3% rise for the core PPI. This compares with a respective 1.1% and 1.3% jump for the two indexes in November.
— Empire State Mfg Survey
— Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
— Federal Reserve Beige Book

Thursday:
— Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks on "The Outlook for Housing" at the Home Builders Association of Greater Kansas City: 2020 Economic Forecast breakfast.
— Jobless Claims are likely to increase to 216,000 for the week ended Jan. 11 from 214,000 in the previous week.
— Census Bureau reports Retail Sales data for December. Expectations are for 0.3% gain, following a 0.2% rise in November. Excluding autos, retail sales are expected to jump 0.6% after edging up 0.1% in November.
— National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for January. Consensus estimates are for a 76 reading, in line with December’s data.
— Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
— Import and Export Prices: Import prices are likely to rise 0.3% in December from 0.2% in the previous month.
— Business Inventories are expected to dip 0.1% in November after rising 0.2% in October.
— Treasury International Capital
— Fed Balance Sheet
— Money Supply

Friday:
— Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook before the New Jersey Bankers Association Economic Leadership Forum.
— Randal Quarles, vice chairman of supervision at the Federal Reserve, speaks about bank supervision at the American Bar Association Banking Law Committee Annual Meeting in Washington.
— University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for January. Economists forecast a 99.6 reading, even with the December data.
— BLS releases its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November. Expectations are for 7.3 million job openings on the last business day of November, little changed from October.
— Housing Starts will likely to increase to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.378 million units in December from 1.365 million units in the previous month.
— Building permits data for December will likely show a drop to 1.465 million units from 1.474 million units in the previous month.
— Industrial Production is likely to have fallen 0.1% in December.
— JOLTS

Key USDA & international ag and energy-related reports and events:

Monday, Jan. 13

Ag reports and events:

  • Export Inspections
  • Japanese markets are closed in observance of Coming of Age Day.
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data

Energy reports and events:

  • CNPC researchers release 2019 oil and gas report
  • Cnooc annual strategy preview for 2020

Tuesday, Jan. 14

Ag reports and events:

  • Turkey Hatchery
  • Meat Price Spreads
  • Cotton & Wool Outlook
  • Oil Crops Outlook
  • Feed Outlook
  • Wheat Outlook
  • Rice Outlook
  • Dairy Data 
  • China soybean import data

Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • China trade data (December)
  • EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Report

Wednesday, Jan. 15

Ag reports and events:

  • U.S./China Phase 1 trade agreement signing expected
  • Broiler Hatchery
  • Feed Grains Database
  • Wheat Data  
  • FranceAgriMer’s monthly cereals press conference
  • Malaysia’s Jan. 1-15 palm oil shipment data

Energy reports and events:

  • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
  • Genscape weekly ARA crude stockpiles

Thursday, Jan. 16

Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • Livestock, Dairy
  • Poultry Outlook
  • Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook
  • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Brazil crop agency Conab may release 1st report on 2020 coffee crop, Sao Paulo
  • MPOB Palm Oil Review & Outlook Seminar, Kuala Lumpur

Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile data
  • Russia refining maintenance schedule
  • IEA Oil Market Report

Friday, Jan. 17

Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC weekly commitments of traders report
  • Peanut Prices

Energy reports and events:

  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts
  • North Dakota oil production
  • China crude oil & refining output data (December)

 

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