CPC Gives Roughly 50% Odds ENSO-neutral Conditions Will Linger Through Summer

Posted on Thu, 01/09/2020 - 11:47

Weather watchers with the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) say there are roughly 60% odds ENSO-neutral conditions (where neither El Niño nor La Niña are present) will continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and roughly a 50% chance such conditions will persist through summer. Last month, CPC gave 60% to 66% odds ENSO-neutral conditions would continue through spring.  

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased during December due to “a combination of low-level westerly wind anomalies and the growth in positive equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies.” Forecasters expect above0average ocean temperatures to continue the next month or two, but they “do not foresee a continuation over several consecutive seasons or shifts in the atmospheric circulation that would indicate El Niño.”

 

CPC/IRI Early-Month Official ENSO Forecast Probabilities

Season

La Niña

Neutral

El Niño

DJF 2020

0%

48%

52%

JFM 2020

1%

56%

43%

FMA 2020

3%

60%

37%

MAM 2020

7%

61%

32%

AMJ 2020

12%

60%

28%

MJJ 2020

16%

57%

27%

JJA 2020

22%

52%

26%

JAS 2020

25%

49%

26%

ASO 2020

28%

46%

26%