Congress Out Until Week of Jan. 6; Thinly Traded Markets Expected as Traders Exit

Posted on 12/22/2019 10:05 AM

Key ag reports include U.S. Hogs & Pigs and China trade data

Unless or until there are some tweets from President Donald Trump, Washington should be relatively quiet, as lawmakers do not return until the week of Jan. 6.


See you next year for many, but not us. Many commodity traders, analysts and company associates frequently take additional days off around the Christmas and New Year holidays, which in part leads to market volatility in more thinly traded markets.

We will keep reporting. While many news and analysis groups also take a respite, Pro Farmer will continue with our normal The Week Ahead and Policy Updates because, frankly, news does not take a holiday.

Economic reports for the week include:

— Census Bureau reports new-home sales data for November. Consensus estimates are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 730,000 new homes sold, roughly even with October’s figure. That estimate would be about an 11% increase from November 2018’s 657,000 rate. In October, the average price for a new house was $383,300 while the median price was $316,700.
— Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago releases its National Activity Index for November. Economists forecast a negative 0.1 reading, similar to the October data. The index has had a negative reading every month this year except for June and August, after having three negative reading in 2018. This indicates that the economy, while still growing, is decelerating.
— Census Bureau releases its Durable Goods report for November. New orders for durable manufactured goods are expected to jump 1.6% after a 0.5% rise in October. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen edging up 0.2%. This compares with a 0.5% gain in October, as well.
— Survey of Business Uncertainty
— China Nov. trade data, including oil products imports & exports breakdown.

— Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond releases its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing for December. Expectations are for a 3.0 reading, up from November’s minus 1.
— Bank of Japan releases minutes from its monetary-policy meeting at the end of October.

— Markets all over the world, including in the U.S., are closed in observance of Christmas Day.

— Many bourses, including those in Canada, England, and Hong Kong, are closed in observance of Boxing Day.
— Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 21. The four-week moving average of claims is 225,500.
— State Street Investor Confidence Index
— Fed Balance Sheet
— Money Supply

Key USDA & international ag and energy-related reports and events on tap:

Monday, Dec. 23

Ag reports and events:

  • Export Inspections
  • Cotton Ginnings
  • Chickens and Eggs
  • Cold Storage
  • Hogs and Pigs
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • China wheat, corn, cotton, soybean and sugar imports

Energy reports and events:

  • China Nov. trade data

Tuesday, Dec. 24

Ag reports and events:

  • Unica cane crush, sugar production

Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report

Wednesday, Dec. 25

Ag reports and events:

  • Holiday: Christmas

Thursday, Dec. 26

Ag reports and events:

  • Canada markets closed for Boxing Day
  • Poultry Slaughter
  • Malaysia’s Dec. 1-25 palm oil export data

Friday, Dec. 27

Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on various U.S. futures and options contracts.
  • Peanut Prices
  • Livestock and Meat Domestic Data
  • Agricultural Prices
  • Broiler Hatchery
  • Egg Products

Energy reports and events:

  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts
  • EIA Petroleum Status report
  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories


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