Lawmakers Return to FY 2020 Budget Issues; House Continues Impeachment Process

Posted on 12/02/2019 4:32 AM

Trump to London for NATO meetings | USMCA | USTR report on French digital tax

The Senate returns this afternoon while the House returns Tuesday from the Thanksgiving recess. House Democrats will again focus on their impeachment inquiry while both chambers will continue to work on fiscal year 2020 budget matters. President Donald Trump will attend NATO meetings in London while the U.S. Trade Representative's office will announce its response to the French digital tax. A deal on the USMCA could be announced this week. On the economic report front, Friday brings an update on Employment.

 

House and Senate lawmakers can begin negotiating details of the 12 fiscal 2020 appropriations bills after congressional negotiators agreed to a set of spending levels for the legislation.

Impeachment report expected this week. The three panels leading the probe plan to deliver the document early this week. The report will present the evidence for impeaching President Trump to the House Judiciary Committee, which begins its own hearings on Wednesday. The White House informed House Democrats on Sunday that it will not participate in the Judiciary Committee's first impeachment hearing. The Judiciary Committee's chairman previously gave the president until Friday to decide whether his legal team will participate in the proceedings.

The Senate will resume consideration of Dan Brouillette to be Energy secretary.

The USTR will announce what retaliatory action, if any, it will take in response to a digital tax France instituted this year that will hit large American tech companies

A deal on the USMCA trade pact could be announced at any time, according to a Trump administration. official

President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump will travel to London for the NATO alliance's two-day meeting starting Tuesday. The two will attend the meeting of NATO heads of state and reception hosted by Queen Elizabeth II. The meeting coincides with the 70th anniversary of the organization’s founding.

Trump will have bilateral meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. He will also meet with the leaders of Denmark, Italy, Estonia, Greece, Poland and the U.K.

Financial-related hearings are another focus this week. Randal Quarles, vice chairman for supervision at the Federal Reserve; Jelena McWilliams, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; and Rodney Hood, chairman of the National Credit Union Administration, will testify Thursday at a Senate Banking Committee hearing to review the oversight of financial regulators.

Meanwhile, the House Financial Services panel holds a hearing Thursday to review Trump administration’s deregulatory approach to financial stability. And on Friday, the Financial Services panel’s Task Force on Artificial Intelligence holds a hearing on the impact of artificial intelligence on Wall Street.

A monthly view of the U.S. jobs and labor market comes Friday and is the last such report before the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of 2019 on Dec. 10-11.

Economic updates for the week include:

Monday:
— Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for November. Economists forecast a 49.3 reading, up from October’s 48.3 figure. If estimates prove correct, it would be the fourth consecutive month when the index was below 50, indicating a contracting manufacturing sector.
— Census Bureau reports construction spending data for October. Expectations are for an uptick of 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.3 trillion.
Markit manufacturing PMI Nov.

Tuesday:
— Motor vehicle sales

Wednesday:
— ADP releases its National Employment Report for November. Consensus estimates are for a gain of 140,000 private-sector jobs, up from October’s 125,000 rise.
— ISM reports its Non-Manufacturing PMI for November. Expectations are for a 54.5 reading, roughly in line with October’s data.
— Markit services PMI
— Bank of Canada announces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank is expected to keep it key short-term interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Thursday:
— Weekly jobless claims: Prior: 213,000 | Consensus: 220,000 | Range: 216,000 to 226,000
— Trade deficit: Prior: $-52.5 bil. | Consensus: $-48.6 bil. | Range: $-51.5 bil. to $-48.1 bil.
— Factory orders: Prior: -0.6 % | Consensus: 0.3 % | Range: -0.3% to 0.7%

Friday:
— University of Michigan reports its Consumer Sentiment Index for December. Economists forecast a 96.8 reading, even with November’s figure.
— Employment: Economists polled by Thomson Reuters expect the November jobs report to show the U.S. unemployment rate held at 3.6% with non-farm payrolls rising by 180,000, more than the 128,000 jobs added in October.
— Wholesale inventories
— Consumer credit: Prior: $9.5 bil. | Consensus: $15.5 bil. | Range: $11.6 bil. to $17.6 bil.

Key USDA & international ag and energy-related reports and events on tap:

Monday, Dec. 2

Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC weekly commitments of traders report (delayed from last Friday due to U.S. holiday)
  • Export Inspections
  • Crop Progress
  • Cotton System
  • Fats & Oils
  • Grain Crushings
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Malaysia’s Nov. 1-30 palm oil export data
  • Australia Commodity Index
  • Brazil soybean, coffee, sugar, corn exports
  • International Cotton Advisory Committee updates world supply data

Energy reports and events:

  • OPEC Q&A with Bloomberg oil strategist Julian Lee
  • United Nations climate talks open in Madrid, through Dec. 13

Tuesday, Dec. 3

Ag reports and events:

  • Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index
  • Quarterly update by Australia’s Abares

Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report

Wednesday, Dec. 4

Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • Dairy Products
  • North American Potatoes

Energy reports and events:

  • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
  • Petrobras investor day in New York City

Thursday, Dec. 5

Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • Census: Specialty Crops
  • Latest U.S. Agricultural Trade Data
  • United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization monthly food price index
  • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Rabobank hosts Annual Food & Agribusiness Summit, New York
  • Holiday: Thailand

Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • OPEC delegates, ministers gather for formal ministerial meeting in Vienna' meeting is preceded by Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee
  • Saudi Aramco IPO pricing and allocation ends

Friday, Dec. 6

Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on various U.S. futures and options contracts.
  • Peanut Prices
  • U.S. Bioenergy Statistics ERS
  • Livestock and Meat International Trade Data
  • Aquaculture Data
  • U.S. Agricultural Trade Data Update
  • Fresh Apples, Grapes, and Pears: World Markets and Trade
  • StatsCanada wheat, durum, canola, barley, soybean production
  • FranceAgriMer weekly crop conditions

Energy reports and events:

  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts
  • OPEC+ ministers gather for meeting, Vienna

Other reports and events this week include:

Monday, Dec. 2

  • Supreme Court justices will hear the court's most significant Second Amendment case in nearly a decade. The topic is a rule that forbade most licensed gun owners in New York City from taking their weapons to firing ranges or second homes outside city limits.
  • U.S. Trade Representative report on France's digital services tax and any action to retaliate against French products under a provision of U.S. law. The tax falls primarily on U.S. companies that sell advertising aimed at French internet users or provide a digital marketplace.
  • Impeachment inquiry. Members of the House Intelligence Committee will begin reviewing a report on its impeachment investigation of President Donald Trump. Democrats’ likely articles of impeachment are expected to lean heavily on the report.
  • NATO. President Donald Trump will attend the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Leaders Meeting and a reception hosted by Queen Elizabeth II at Buckingham Palace.
  • NATO summit preview: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) conference call briefing to preview the NATO Summit.
  • White House Christmas decorations. Preview for the media on White House Christmas decorations for 2020 by office of the First Lady.
  • Port security. House Homeland Security Oversight, Management and Accountability Subcommittee field hearing on "Promoting Safe and Efficient Travel and Trade at America's Land Ports of Entry."
  • Venezuela. Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA) discussion on "Venezuela's Humanitarian Crisis: Could an Oil-for-Food Program Work?"
  • China & East Asia. Brookings Institution discussion on "Global China: Assessing China's Role in East Asia."
  • AMLO’s first year. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) discussion on "Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's (AMLO) First Year in Office: Challenges and Opportunities."

Tuesday, Dec. 3

  • FDA nomination. Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee meeting to consider the nomination of Stephen Hahn to be commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
  • Heritage Foundation forum, “The Case for a U.S.-Swiss Free Trade Agreement.”
  • Russia policy. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on "The Future of U.S. Policy Toward Russia." David Hale, undersecretary of state for political affairs, testifies.
  • NRC nominee. Senate Environment & Public Works Clean Air and Nuclear Safety Subcommittee hearing on the nomination of Robert J. Feitel to be inspector general of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
  • Solar tariffs. Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) rally to urge the Trump administration to stop harmful solar tariffs.

Wednesday, Dec. 4

  • China & WTO. Cato Institute book forum on "China's Implementation of the Rulings of the World Trade Organization" with author Weihuan Zhou, senior lecturer at the University of New South Wales.
  • House Judiciary Committee holds its first impeachment hearing. The panel will examine the constitutional grounds for crafting articles of impeachment.
  • Capitol Christmas Tree. Lighting ceremony for the U.S. Capitol Christmas Tree, harvested Nov. 6 from the Carson National Forest in New Mexico and decorated with thousands of handcrafted ornaments from the people of New Mexico.
  • Prudential regulators oversight. House Financial Services Committee hearing on "Oversight of Prudential Regulators: Ensuring the Safety, Soundness, Diversity, and Accountability of Depository Institutions?" Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles to testify.
  • Immigration policy. House Education and Labor Committee hearing on "Growing Up in Fear: How the Trump Administration's Immigration Policies Are Harming Children."
  • START treaty. House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on "The Importance of the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction) Treaty."
  • Data privacy. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing on "Examining Legislative Proposals to Protect Consumer Data Privacy."
  • Rural health. Health Affairs holds a Rural Health Forum.
  • Ukraine. Atlantic Council discussion on "U.S. Strategic Interests in Ukraine."
  • Chronic wasting disease. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing.

Thursday, Dec. 5

  • National Christmas Tree lighting. National Park Service holds 97th annual National Christmas Tree Lighting.
  • Financial deregulation. House Financial Services Committee hearing on "Promoting Financial Stability? Reviewing the Administration's Deregulatory Approach to Financial Stability."
  • Freight transport impacts. House Transportation & Infrastructure Highways and Transit Subcommittee and Railroads, Pipelines, and Hazardous Materials Subcommittee joint hearing on "Where's My Stuff? Examining the Economic, Environmental and Societal Impacts of Freight Transportation."
  • Decarbonization of economy. House Energy & Commerce Environment and Climate Change Subcommittee hearing on "Building a 100% Clean Economy: Solutions for Economy-Wide Deep Decarbonization."
  • Oversight of financial regulators. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on "Oversight of Financial Regulators." Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles to testify.
  • Drought information system. Commerce Department’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration holds a meeting of the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Executive Council.
  • U.S./China. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds a discussion on "China, the United States, and the Cold War: How Much Damage Can One Historical Analogy Do?"
  • China espionage. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds a book discussion on "Chinese Communist Espionage: An Intelligence Primer."
  • Broadband. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing on next-generation broadband technologies.
  • Hostages. Republican Senator Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) discusses a bill he co-introduced that would require the president to impose sanctions on foreign officials responsible for taking Americans hostage, at Hudson Institute event.
  • FCC oversight. House Energy & Commerce Communications and Technology Subcommittee hearing on "Accountability and Oversight of the Federal Communications Commission."

Friday, Dec. 6

  • AI impacts on capital markets. House Financial Services Task Force on Artificial Intelligence (AI) Subcommittee hearing on "Robots on Wall Street: The Impact of AI on Capital Markets and Jobs in the Financial Services Industry."
  • Free markets. Brookings Institution discussion on "The Great Reversal: How America Gave Up on Free Markets."

 

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