Lawmakers Out for Thanksgiving Recess; Trump to Soon Follow

Posted on 11/25/2019 3:20 AM

Fed chairman speaks Monday | Beige Book Wednesday | Export Sales report on Friday

House and Senate lawmakers are out for Thanksgiving recess, while President Donald Trump will soon depart for his holiday break, but his tweets are always possible on a host of issues, including the lingering U.S./China trade talks. See Policy Updates for the latest on other issues, including biofuel programs, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and the fiscal year 2020 spending debate when lawmakers return. Meanwhile, USDA's Weekly Export Sales report will be released on Friday, and the CFTC Commitments of Traders report, usually out on Friday, will be delayed until Dec. 2.


Economic updates and Federal Reserve speakers for the week include:

Monday:
Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, is the keynote speaker at this year’s Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce annual meeting.
—Chicago Federal Reserve releases its National Activity Index. Look for a reading of -0.20 for October, compared with a -0.45 reading in September.
— Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
— Mexico's national statistics agency to release third-quarter GDP data
— Brazil's central bank is expected to release current account data

Tuesday:
— Federal Reserve Member of the Board of Governors Lael Brainard speaks about the "Federal Reserve Framework Review of Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication" at the New York Association for Business Economics 2019 William F. Butler Award event in New York, New York.
— Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Survey, a monthly measure of the public’s confidence in the health of the U.S. economy. Consensus estimates call for a reading of 126.8 in November, down slightly from 125.9 in October.
— Census Bureau releases sales of new single-family houses for October. Economists are looking for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 710,000, compared with 701,000 in September.
— International trade in goods
— Retail inventories
— Wholesale inventories
— S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
— Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Wednesday:
— Federal Reserve issues its Beige Book summarizing economic conditions in its 12 districts.
— Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its Personal Income and Outlays report for October. Personal consumption expenditures are expected to rise 0.3% after a 0.2% gain in September, while personal income is seen as rising 0.3%, the same as last month.
— Census Bureau releases its Durable Goods report for October. New orders for manufactured durable goods are expected to fall 0.5% after a 1.2% drop in September.
— MBA Mortgage Applications
— Commerce Department's second reading of third-quarter GDP is expected to show the U.S. economy increased at an annualized rate of 1.9%.
— Corporate Profits
— Pending Home Sales Index
— State Street Investor Confidence Index

Friday:
— Chicago PMI
— Fed Balance Sheet
— Money Supply
— November inflation figures for the euro zone are released.
— Statistics Canada to release third-quarter gross domestic product data. The country's economy is expected to have expanded at an annualized rate of 1.3% in the quarter, after increasing 3.7% in the second quarter. On the same day, Canada's producer prices data will be released.

Key USDA & international ag and energy-related reports and events on tap:

Monday, Nov. 25

Ag reports and events:

  • Export Inspections
  • Crop Progress
  • Cotton Ginnings
  • Agricultural Exchange Rate Data Set
  • Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade
  • Poultry Slaughter
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Marex Spectron 2019 Sugar Symposium, London. Speakers include: Ajay Chaudhary (ETG), Dougal Williams (Louis Dreyfus), Guilherme Gamba (Sucden), Mischa Soroko and Vlad Ghicioc (Alvean), Rahil Shaikh (MEIR Commodities)
  • Monthly MARS update on European weather, crop conditions
  • Malaysia’s Nov. 1-25 palm oil shipment data

Tuesday, Nov. 26

Ag reports and events:

  • International Sugar Organization seminar - Day 1/2, London. Speakers include Kristen Eshak Weldon, head of food innovation and downstream strategy Louis Dreyfus; Frank Maus at Cargill’s sweetener division, Ferrero, AB Sugar
  • Unica cane crush, sugar production

Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report

Wednesday, Nov. 27

Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • Highlights from the November 2019 Farm Income Forecast
  • Livestock and Meat Domestic Data
  • Agricultural Prices
  • Egg Products
  • Peanut Stocks and Processing
  • Deere hosts a webcast to discuss fourth-quarter and full-year financial results. Analysts estimate per share earnings of $9.92 for the fiscal year versus $9.39 a year ago. The company is expected to report lower quarterly earnings, hurt by America's trade war with China along with poor weather in the U.S. farm belt. Investors will focus on the company's guidance for the next year as the 16-month-long trade war continues to weigh on farm equipment demand.

Energy reports and events:

  • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • Baker Hughes rig count

Thursday, Nov. 28

Ag reports and events:

  • Rabobank conference on 2020-21 agribusiness outlook, Sao Paulo. Scenarios for sugar, ethanol, coffee, orange juice, corn and pulp
  • Grain World conference in Saskatoon. Day 1/2
  • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports

Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change

Friday, Nov. 29

Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • CFTC weekly commitments of traders report delayed until Dec. 2
  • Peanut Prices
  • Brazil’s grain exporters group Anec holds conference on prospects for soybean and corn crops, Sao Paulo Andre Pessoa, head of crop forecaster Agroconsult, to present prospects for season
  • FranceAgriMer weekly crop conditions

Energy reports and events:

  • EIA releases Petroleum Supply Monthly

Other reports and events this week include:

Monday, Nov. 25

  • President Trump to meet Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov at the White House.
  • White House Christmas tree. First lady Melania Trump hosts the arrival of the 2019 White House Christmas Tree, delivered in a horse-drawn carriage.
  • CFTC. Commodity Futures Trading Commission holds a meeting. Agenda includes: Final Rules, Amendments to Part 4: Registration and Compliance Requirements for Commodity Pool Operators and Commodity Trading Advisors: Amendments to Rules 4.7, 4.13, and 4.14 (Codification of Relief for Family Offices and Relief Related to the JOBS Act); Amendments to Rules 4.5 and 4.27 (Updating Exclusions and Adding Reporting Relief); and Proposed Rule, Amendments to Swap Clearing Requirement Exemptions under Part 50.
  • U.K. elections. Woodrow Wilson Center (WWC) holds a Ground Truth conference call briefing, beginning at 10:30 a.m., on "An Analysis of the Upcoming UK Elections."

Tuesday, Nov. 26

  • President Trump holds a ceremony to pardon the National Thanksgiving Turkey in celebration of the 72nd anniversary of the tradition.
  • Rail safety. Federal Railroad Administration holds a meeting of the Railroad Safety Advisory Committee. Agenda includes an update on the railroad industry's implementation of positive train control (PTC)
  • Iraq situation. Hudson Institute holds a discussion on "The U.S. Response to Iraq's Growing Corruption and Political Unrest."

Thursday, Nov. 28

  • U.S. markets and gov't offices are closed in observance of Thanksgiving.

Friday, Nov. 29

  • Commodity and financial markets close early; U.S. government offices are open.

 

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