South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier shaved 500,000 MT off his Brazilian soybean crop estimate that now stands at 123 MMT, and he has a neutral to lower bias going forward. “The weather in Brazil has improved, but it is still not what it should be for mid-November,” he explains, adding that moisture deficits persist in Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, Goias, Bahia, and Maranhao, with little relief in sight.
Delayed soybean planting will also push back safrinha corn planting, upping the risk of dry weather or frost before the crop is mature, Cordonnier continues. Nevertheless, he maintained his 2019-20 corn crop estimate of 103 MMT, though his bias is neural to lower going forward.
Cordonnier also lowered his Argentine soybean crop estimate by 1 MMT to 54 MMT, and his bias is neutral going forward. He offered little explanation for the cut and noted that good soil moisture in core producing areas allowed for good planting progress.
He still estimates the Argentine corn crop at 49 MMT, and his bias is again neutral to lower going forward.