Ahead of the Open:

Posted on 11/15/2019 7:28 AM

Grain Calls          

Corn: Steady to down 1 cent
Soybeans: Steady to up 2 cents
Wheat: Steady to down 2 cents

General Comment: Corn, wheat and soybean futures have barely moved overnight, continuing this week’s pattern of mixed to lower trade as uncertainty over U.S.-Chinese trade negotiations curbed trading interest... Grain markets have also been awaiting a clear picture of the impact of freezing conditions in U.S. grain belts on recently sown wheat and still to be harvested corn and soybeans.  U.S. wheat was being capped by ample global supplies and signs of the renewed competitiveness of Russian wheat.

Overall weather is also mixed. U.S. harvest will move ahead before another storm early next week. Rains have returned to South America, but few dry pockets remain, and some forecasters are getting more confident that the warming Pacific Ocean temperatures may bring drier weather back to South America in December and January. 

The U.S. and China look to be close to a trade deal. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow says talks over the first phase of an agreement were coming down to the final stages, with the two sides will hold minister-level talks today to discuss the rollback on tariffs and timeline for Chinee agricultural purchases and quantities.  On Thursday, China lifted a ban on American poultry that began in 2015, after the U.S. Department of Agriculture made a similar decision to allow Chinese poultry into the U.S. 

Kudlow also said President Donald Trump hasn’t yet decided on whether to impose -- or delay, as many expect -- new auto tariffs on imported cars and parts from the European Union. An announcement is expected today.

Weekly USDA export sales were once again light for grains, inline for soybeans a strong for soybean meal.  Wheat sold for export in 2019-20 in the week ended Nov. 7 fell 37% from the prior four-week average to just 238,600 metric tons and included a small 30,000 MT sales to Brazil. Corn net sales last week rose 19% from the prior week at 581,600 MT, which was right in the middle of trade estimates and below the pace needed to reach the USDA export projection. The surprise was 280,300 MT of sorghum sold last week with 250,000 sold to unknown, which is probably Chinese buying.
Soybean sales last week total 1.253 MMT, down 31% from the past week but up 5% from the four-week average. It included 760,500 sold to China. Sales were with trade estimates. Soybean meal sales jumped to 345,300 MT and soyoil sales were 30,600 MT, both at the top end of trade forecasts.


USDA daily export sales reporting services said private exporters did not report any new overnight sales after new soybean sales were announced the past two sessions to China and unknown destinations.  

 

Corn: December corn looks like it will remain confined to narrow ranges but lack any bullish fodder to make a run to the upside. 

SoybeansJanuary beans rebounded yesterday from a new six-week low and may have enough export news to continue higher today to pare further this week’s decline.  U.S. soybean processors ramped up crush last month amid increased supplies, a report may say later today. Crush may have risen to 166.795 million bu. in October, according to the average of nine analysts estimates in a Reuters poll. That below the record 172.346 million bu. a year earlier and up 9.3% from the 152.566 million bu. crushed in September. The National Oilseed Processors Association releases its monthly update at 11 a.m. CST on Friday. Stocks of soybean oil seed falling to 1.42 billion lbs. from 1.503 billion a year ago

Wheat: Futures look poise to close lower after attempting to rally on U.S. crop concerns. The problem is world supplies remain more than ample and there are not enough global problems threatening the 2020 crops.  

Livestock Calls

Cattle: Steady to firm
Hogs: Steady to weak

Cattle:  Cattle are expected to continue to consolidate recent strong rallies. Beef took a breather on Thursday with Choice cutouts falling $1.28 and Select dropping $1.69 on moderately active sales. However, weekly beef export sales double to 25,300 MT last week, the most since April.

Hogs:  Lean hog futures will be under pressure to close the week after the USDA export sales report was a disappointment. Net sales of 19,900 MT last week fell 19% from the prior week with pork sales for 2020 rising to 10,800 MT. Pork export shipments last week rose 2% from the prior week. China was bot the top buyer and shipper of pork last week.  Average U.S. cash hog prices slipped 4 cents on Thursday and pork cutout values rose 2 cents amid moderate new sales.  Slaughter this week is up 36,000 head from a year ago.   China will release pork from reserves at an appropriate time to meet demand, according to Meng Wei, spokeswoman for the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). The Chinese government and local governments have a certain amount of frozen pork in storage, Meng said, adding that the country will boost supplies of other proteins like poultry, beef and mutton and will raise imports.

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