Soybean Export Sales Surge, Fueled by Big China Buys

Posted on 11/07/2019 7:50 AM

Soybean Export Sales Surge, Fueled by Big China Buys

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report

Week Ended Oct. 31, 2019

Corn

Actual Sales (in MT)

2019-20: 487,900

Expectations (in MT)

2019-20: 300,000-650,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 487,900 metric tons for 2019-20 were down 11% from the previous week, but up 15% from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for unknown destinations (227,700 MT), Mexico (186,900 MT, including decreases of 12,100 MT), the Dominican Republic (15,500 MT), Japan (14,600 MT, including decreases of 50,000 MT), and Canada (11,700 MT), were offset by reductions for Colombia (2,000 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 317,900 MT were down 36% from the previous week and 37% from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (226,100 MT), Colombia (26,500 MT), Japan (23,200 MT), Costa Rica (19,700 MT), and Nicaragua (7,000 MT).

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments early in the 2019-20 marketing year are 47% behind year-ago commitments versus 48% behind last week. USDA projects exports in 2019-20 at 1.900 billion bu., down 8.0% from the previous marketing year.

Wheat

Actual Sales (in MT)

2019-20: 360,600

Expectations (in MT)

2019-20: 350,000-600,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 360,600 metric tons for 2019-20 were down 27% from the previous week and 14% from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for the Philippines (64,000 MT, including decreases of 31,600 MT), Thailand (45,000 MT), unknown destinations (40,200 MT), Mexico (39,900 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and Taiwan (36,800 MT), were offset by reductions for Belgium (1,900 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 408,500 MT were down 3% from the previous week and 15% from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (85,600 MT), the Philippines (65,000 MT), South Korea (63,700 MT), Mexico (53,800 MT), and Taiwan (50,800 MT).

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments are running 8% ahead of year-ago compared with 11% ahead the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2019-20 at 950 million bu., up 1.5% from the previous marketing year.

Soybeans

Actual Sales (in MT)

2019-20: 1,807,400

Expectations (in MT)

2019-20: 600,000-1,200,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 1,807,400 metric tons for 2019-20 were up 92% from the previous week and 41% from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (956,300 MT, including 198,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,600 MT), the Netherlands (284,100 MT, including 155,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 6,800 MT), Mexico (106,600 MT, including decreases of 2,500 MT), Vietnam (85,000 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 300 MT),  and Japan (80,600 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), were partially offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (157,200 MT). 

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 1,559,400 MT were down 10% from the previous week, but up 22% from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (821,300 MT), the Netherlands (148,200 MT), Vietnam (87,100 MT), Saudi Arabia (71,200 MT), and Mexico (68,300 MT). 

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments early in 2019-20 are 2% behind year-ago levels, which compares to 10% behind year-ago last week. USDA projects exports in 2019-20 at 1.775 billion bu., up 1.5% from year-ago.

Soymeal

Actual Sales (in MT)

Combined: 412,000
2019-20: 262,400
2020-21: 149,600

Expectations

2019-20: 150,000-300,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 262,400 MT for the 2019-20, primarily for the Philippines (143,200 MT), Colombia (53,300 MT), Mexico (16,000 MT), Japan (10,300 MT), and Burma (9,700 MT), were partially offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (3,000 MT), Nepal (1,600 MT), and Trinidad (500 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 149,600 MT were primarily to the Philippines (52,300 MT), Mexico (39,900 MT), Canada (15,700 MT), Burma (8,300 MT), and Nicaragua (7,800 MT).

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments for 2019-20 are running 14% behind year-ago early in the marketing year, which compares to 15% behind last week. USDA projects exports in 2019-20 to edge 0.7% higher from the previous marketing year.

Soyoil

Actual Sales (in MT)

Combined: 3,900
2019-20: 3,800
2020-21: 100

Expectations

2019-20: 5,000-25,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 3,800 MT for 2019-20 primarily for Colombia (2,000 MT), Mexico (900 MT, including decreases of 1,400 MT), El Salvador (700 MT), and Canada (400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for the Dominican Republic (200 MT).  For 2020/2021, total net sales of 100 MT were for Canada. 

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 18,700 MT were primarily to South Korea (10,000 MT), El Salvador (2,600 MT), Mexico (2,400 MT), Costa Rica (2,000 MT), and Nicaragua (1,500 MT). 

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments for the 2019-20 marketing year are running 4% behind year-ago early in the marketing year, which compares to 4% ahead of year-ago last week. USDA projects exports in 2019-20 to fall 14.8% from the previous year.

Cotton

Actual Sales (in RB)

Combined: 283,100
2019-20: 164,500
2020-21: 118,600

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 164,500 RB for 2019-20 were up 52% from the previous week and 2% from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Pakistan (95,100 RB), Vietnam (45,100 RB, including 2,400 RB switched from Hong Kong and decreases of 3,500 RB), Turkey (33,200 RB), China (23,500 MT, including decreases of 2,300 RB), and Bangladesh (14,500 RB, including decreases of 300 RB), were partially offset by reductions primarily for Indonesia (65,900 RB) and Hong Kong (2,400 RB).  For 2020/2021, net sales of 118,600 RB were for Indonesia (70,500 RB), Vietnam (44,000 RB), and Japan (4,100 RB). 

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 129,700 RB were down 13% from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to Pakistan (21,600 RB), Vietnam (17,900 RB), China (14,400 RB), Indonesia (12,800 RB), and Mexico (9,800 RB).

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments for 2019-20 are 3% ahead of year-ago versus 3% ahead of year-ago last week. USDA forecasts total cotton exports to fall rise 11.8% to 16.5 million bales this marketing year.

Beef

Actual Sales (in MT)

Combined: 12,300
2019: 10,100
2020: 2,200

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 10,100 MT reported for 2019 were down 36% from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Japan (2,900 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Taiwan (1,900 MT), Mexico (1,500 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), South Korea (1,400 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), and Canada (900 MT).  For 2020, net sales of 2,200 MT were primarily for South Korea (700 MT), Mexico (500 MT), Canada (500 MT), Japan (300 MT), and Taiwan (200 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 15,800 MT were up 9% from the previous week and 2% from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (4,100 MT), South Korea (4,100 MT), Hong Kong (2,100 MT), Mexico (1,900 MT), and Taiwan (1,000 MT).

Comments and Performance Indicators

Last week, USDA reported sales of 16,100 MT for 2019 and 2020. USDA projects 2019 exports to slide 1.1% from year-ago levels.

Pork

Actual Sales (in MT)

Combined: 24,900
2019: 16,600
2020: 8,300

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 16,600 MT reported for 2019 were down 45% from the previous week and 82% from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for China (2,800 MT), South Korea (2,700 MT), Canada (2,700 MT), Mexico (2,400 MT), and Japan (2,400 MT).  For 2020, net sales of 8,300 MT primarily for South Korea (7,600 MT) and Australia (1,900 MT), were partially offset by reductions for China (2,000 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 33,500 MT were up 3% from the previous week, but down 56% from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were to China (10,600 MT), Mexico (9,100 MT), South Korea (3,900 MT), Japan (3,800 MT), and Australia (1,800 MT).

Comments and Performance Indicators

Sales totaled 31,900 in last week’s report. USDA projects exports in 2019 will rise 12.0% from year-ago.

 

 

 

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