South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained his 2019-20 soybean crop estimate for Brazil at 124 MMT and he has a neutral to lower bias going forward. Last week’s rainfall in central Brazil was the best of the season, but moisture still lags the norm and south-central Brazil needs rain.
Producers made big strides planting soybeans over the past week. “Soybeans are a very forgiving crop; they can be planted late and still do OK if the weather cooperates during the growing season,” Cordonnier notes, adding that yields “could still be OK as long as the planting is not delayed past about mid-November.”
Cordonnier also made no change to his Brazilian corn crop estimate of 103 MMT, with a neutral to lower bias going forward. Planting of the full-season corn crop has caught up to the average pace and there’s no reason not to expect trendline yields.
Regarding the larger safrinha (second) corn crop, the biggest area of concern could be acres planted in Parana. Soybean planting there has been delayed by dry weather and between 20% and 30% of the crop needs to be replanted. Soybean planting has also been slow in Mato Grosso, though the pace has picked up over the past week. This will delay planting of some safrinha corn until early March, Cordonnier explains. “The ideal planting window for safrinha corn closes about February 20-25 and the latest anyone will plant their corn is about March 10-15,” he continues.
Cordonnier left his 2019-20 Argentine soybean crop estimate at 57 MMT this week and he has a neutral bias going forward. Producers in the country are just getting started with planting; that effort usually wraps up mid-January. “The weather in Argentina thus far this plating season has been sub-par with drier than normal weather especially in the southern and western areas,” Cordonnier notes, but he adds that impact is limited since planting is just getting started.
He also held his corn crop estimate at 50 MMT and he has a neutral bias going forward. Planting is running a bit slower than normal amid dry weather, especially in southern and western areas of the country.