Nitrogen Prices Continue to Fall

Posted on 10/08/2019 4:26 PM

 

  • Fertilizer prices were mostly lower with DAP posting a moderate gain on the week.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) softened 4.05 points to 563.13.
  • You should be at least 50% filled on fall and spring phosphates and 30% filled on fall nitrogen.

Nitrogennitrogen indices chart

  • All four of the nitrogen products in our weekly survey were lower this week.
  • Anhydrous led the decline with no state posting a higher NH3 price on the week. Wisconsin fell $38.12 as Michigan softened $12.44 per short ton.
  • UAN28% was pulled lower by Indiana which dropped $27.43 as North Dakota softened $22.07.
  • Urea softened on a $22.40 decline in Indiana while Minnesota softened $6.98 per short ton. Meanwhile Iowa urea firmed $4.40 and South Dakota firmed $3.08.
  • UAN32% was lower as well with Indiana down $29.60 and Minnesota off $27.30.

You should be at least 30% filled on anhydrous for fall and for spring applications. We maintain the best deal will be had before combines roll in your area, but we are also aware that ship has sailed in some spots. With all four nitrogen products lower on the week and key "I" state Indiana leading declines, we are content to wait out the ongoing price softness exhibited this week. For some, that puts us hand-to-mouth for fall applications where crops have been harvested. This also leaves us subject to a measure of upside risk. We will issue advice to fill needs for fall on signs the nitrogen market -- especially NH3 -- has turned around and is headed higher.

Phosphatep and k indices chart

  • Phosphates were mixed on the week with DAP $6.21 higher.
  • Most states were unchanged on DAP this week, but Iowa firmed $90 per short ton, urging our regional average higher. I suspect the Iowa DAP price tag will pull back next week.
  • MAP fell $4.18 regionally with North Dakota falling $15.30 and Indiana down $12.80. Illinois led gains in MAP firming $10.72 as South Dakota gained $5.43.
  • We have advised you book 50% of expected fall and spring phosphate needs and to be prepared to fill remaining needs on signs retail phosphates have bottomed.
  • According to MosaicCo., wholesale DAP prices were lower at U.S. terminals as MAP firmed slightly at NOLA in the week ended October 4.

Potash

  • Potash was lower on the week with Indiana falling $23.40 and Wisconsin off $11.30.
  • MosaicCo. reports steady to slightly lower wholesale potash prices during the report week.
  • Potash is overpriced when compared directly to NH3. We take that to suggest more about upside risk in anhydrous than downside potential in potash.

Corn Futures

  • December 2019 corn futures closed Friday October 4 at $4.04 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $667.04 per acre -- higher 1.76 on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 561.28 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread widened 7.66 points and now stands at -105.76.
Fertilizer
9/23/19
9/30/19
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$511.79
$512.17
-$7.81
$504.36
Anhydrous
DAP
$461.60
$457.45
+$6.21
$463.66
DAP
MAP
$456.57
$455.14
-$4.18
$450.96
MAP
Potash
$375.95
$374.11
-$3.59
$370.52
Potash
UAN28
$262.39
$258.65
-$4.59
$254.06
UAN28
UAN32
$285.22
$283.03
-$2.13
$280.91
UAN32
Urea
$400.21
$399.68
-$2.21
$397.47
Urea
Composite
570.43
567.18
-4.05
563.13
Composite

nutrient composite index chart

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