Warm Long-term Forecast Eases Frost Concerns

Posted on 09/19/2019 10:12 AM

The National Weather Service is calling for warm weather to continue nationwide from October through December, easing concerns about crops being clipped by an early or even a timely end to the growing season. Of course, this does not mean a killing frost won’t happen in the weeks ahead. But the long-range forecast does ease market concerns about the possibility. Warm temperatures could also add to concern about dry soils in areas where winter wheat planting is underway.

The precipitation outlook is also fairly benign. NWS gives equal chances for normal, above-normal and below-normal precip for the vast majority of the Plains and Midwest during October. The lone exception is elevated odds for wet weather in northern Minnesota, which is not a major producing area. Wet weather to close out the growing season could elevate concerns about disease and crop quality.

The outlook for October through December gives above-normal odds for wet weather in the western Corn Belt through the Texas panhandle.  NWS gives basically a non-forecast for eastern areas of the Midwest.

NWS long-term outlook

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