ERS Hikes Net Farm Income Forecast for 2019

Posted on 08/30/2019 2:04 PM

Net farm income is expected to climb $4.0 billion (4.8%) from year-ago levels in 2019 to $88.0 billion, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS). That’s up sharply from ERS’s March forecast for net farm income to come in at $69.4 billion this year. That’s a rosier financial picture for farmers than prior estimates, which didn’t anticipate the level of aid Trump would provide to compensate for lost sales to China, said Jeffrey Hopkins, the economist who supervised the forecast. The inflation-adjusted net farm income projection would still come in under the historical average (2000 through 2018) of $90.1 billion.

The 2019 forecast includes payments from the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) first implemented in 2018 but received in calendar year 2019, plus the expected payments from the first tranche of MFP 2. “We assume producers will receive 50% of the announced total of $14.5 billion in the first tranche,” ERS details.

ERS pegs net cash income at $112.6 billion, a $7.6 billion (7.3%) increase from 2018 and a bit above the long-term average of $108.3 billion. In inflation-adjusted terms, net cash farm income is up $5.8 billion (5.4%). Find more details here.

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