Fertilizers Show Signs of Bottoming

Posted on 08/01/2019 1:07 PM

 

  • Fertilizer prices were slightly higher with DAP and MAP softening.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) softened 0.06 points to 620.95.

Nitrogennitrogen indices chart

  • All four of the nitrogen products in our weekly survey firmed this week. But none of them moved more than $1 per short ton higher.
  • UAN32% led gains firming 89 cents. Iowa and Indiana led gains in 32%, each state firming around $4.50. Kansas 32% fell 9 cents. All other states were unchanged.
  • Urea was 37 cents higher on the week with Iowa firming $7.54 to lead gains. Kansas once again led to the downside with many states unchanged.
  • Anhydrous ammonia firmed 15 cents per short ton regionally on the week. Nebraska led gains firming $5.49 as North Dakota fell $2.76. Here again, most states unchanged.
  • UAN28% gained all of 3 cents per short ton regionally with Iowa leading gains and Indiana falling $3.99.

This week's price action looks a lot like a mid-summer pause. UAN and urea are overpriced compared to NH3, but we have not yet seen UAN solutions fall seasonally which suggests anhydrous may hold in place for a few weeks before responding to post-harvest demand. Last week we advised (click here to read our advice) you book a portion of fall and spring NH3 needs on this price dip. We will be watching for confirmation of a price bottom to book remaining needs for fall and spring. Stay tuned.

Phosphate

  • Phosphate prices were our only decliners in the fertilizer segment this week.p and k indices chart
  • DAP fell $1.43 to lead the decline with Indiana falling $9.12 and Michigan off $3.98.
  • MAP was down $1.41 With Kansas off $11.70 and Nebraska down $5.38.
  • Wholesale phosphate prices reported by MosaicCo., in the week ended July 26 were lower across the board at U.S. terminals.
  • Phosphates remain overpriced compared to NH3, but on an indexed basis are priced below urea this week.

Potash

  • Potash firmed 29 cents regionally led by Nebraska and Iowa.
  • Potash now holds a premium to anhydrous ammonia, but only by a small margin suggesting potash is comfortable with this week's NH3 price.
  • MosaicCo., reported wholesale potash prices were lower in the Corn Belt and at NOLA during the report week.

Corn Futures

  • December 2019 corn futures closed Friday July 26 at $4.16 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $688.16 per acre -- lower $7.04 per acre on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 626.60 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread widened 9.42 points and now stands at -72.12.
Fertilizer
7/15/19
7/22/19
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$595.44
$569.80
+15 cents
$569.95
Anhydrous
DAP
$505.49
$505.35
-$1.43
$503.92
DAP
MAP
$522.32
$517.94
-$1.41
$516.53
MAP
Potash
$392.38
$393.02
+29 cents
$393.31
Potash
UAN28
$281.56
$280.36
+3 cents
$280.39
UAN28
UAN32
$317.16
$315.33
+89 cents
$316.21
UAN32
Urea
$426.44
$424.90
+37 cents
$425.27
Urea
Composite
626.60
621.01
-0.06
620.95
Composite

nutrient composite index chart

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