USDA projects larger than expected U.S. winter wheat crop, unexpectedly boosts 2022-23 corn ending stocks
USDA raised its estimate for the 2022-23 U.S. winter wheat crop to 1.182 billion bu., higher than analyst expectations, and hiked its forecast for new-crop U.S. corn ending stocks. The following is a summary of key numbers in USDA's Supply and Demand and Crop Production reports for June:
|
U.S. Carryover |
||
|
Corn – billion bushels |
||
|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
|
USDA |
1.485 |
1.400 |
|
Average est. |
1.437 |
1.340 |
|
USDA May |
1.440 |
1.360 |
|
Soybeans – million bushels |
||
|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
|
USDA |
205 |
280 |
|
Average est. |
218 |
307 |
|
USDA May |
235 |
310 |
|
Wheat – million bushels |
||
|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
|
USDA |
655 |
627 |
|
Average est. |
666 |
614 |
|
USDA May |
655 |
619 |
|
Cotton – million bales |
||
|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
|
USDA |
3.40 |
2.90 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
3.11 |
|
USDA May |
3.40 |
2.90 |
|
Global Carryover |
||
|
Corn – MMT |
||
|
|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
USDA |
310.92 |
310.45 |
|
Average est. |
308.57 |
305.10 |
|
USDA May |
309.39 |
305.13 |
|
Soybeans – MMT |
||
|
|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
USDA |
86.15 |
100.46 |
|
Average est. |
84.82 |
99.77 |
|
USDA May |
85.24 |
99.60 |
|
Wheat – MMT |
||
|
|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
USDA |
279.40 |
266.85 |
|
Average est. |
279.83 |
267.18 |
|
USDA May |
279.72 |
267.02 |
|
Cotton – million bales |
||
|
|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
USDA |
82.95 |
82.77 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
82.90 |
|
USDA May |
83.65 |
82.82 |
|
Global Production Highlights |
||
|
Corn – MMT |
||
|
|
2021-22 |
2022-23 June (May) |
|
Argentina |
53.00 (53.00) |
55.00 (55.00) |
|
Brazil |
116.00 (116.00) |
126.00 (126.00) |
|
South Africa |
16.30 (16.30) |
17.30 (17.30) |
|
Ukraine |
42.13 (42.13) |
25.00 (19.50) |
|
China |
272.55 (272.55) |
271.00 (271.00) |
|
Soybeans – MMT |
||
|
|
2021-22 |
2022-23 June (May) |
|
Argentina |
43.40 (42.00) |
51.00 (51.00) |
|
Brazil |
126.00 (125.00) |
149.00 (149.00) |
|
Paraguay |
4.20 (4.20) |
10.00 (10.00) |
|
Wheat – MMT |
||
|
|
2021-22 |
2022-23 June (May) |
|
Argentina |
22.15 (22.15) |
20.00 (20.00) |
|
Australia |
36.30 (36.30) |
30.00 (30.00) |
|
Canada |
21.65 (21.65) |
33.00 (33.00) |
|
EU |
138.42 (138.42) |
136.10 (136.50) |
|
Russia |
75.16 (75.16) |
81.00 (80.00) |
|
Ukraine |
33.01 (33.01) |
21.50 (21.50) |
|
U.S. Winter Wheat Production |
|
|
Winter wheat – billion bu. |
|
|
USDA |
1.182 |
|
Average est. |
1.174 |
|
USDA May |
1.174 |
|
USDA 2021 |
1.277 |
|
|
|
|
HRW wheat – million bu. |
|
|
USDA |
582 |
|
Average est. |
585 |
|
USDA May |
590 |
|
USDA 2021 |
749 |
|
|
|
|
SRW wheat – million bu. |
|
|
USDA |
358 |
|
Average est. |
357 |
|
USDA May |
354 |
|
USDA 2021 |
361 |
|
|
|
|
White winter wheat – million bu. |
|
|
USDA |
242 |
|
Average est. |
232 |
|
USDA May |
230 |
|
USDA 2021 |
167 |
