Employment Report Friday | U.S. Farm Income Thursday | StatsCanada Monday

Congress in recess but committee work continues on $3.5 trillion social infrastructure

Washington Focus

The House and Senate are both in recess. The Senate is expected to return Sept. 13 while the House is expected back the week of Sept. 20.

Despite the recess, House committees will be working to meet a Sept. 15 deadline to craft and pass respective portions of the $3.5 trillion social infrastructure package, including the Agriculture Committee which is expected to mark up its portion on Sept. 10 and the Ways & Means Committee — which will write tax increase provisions —to mark up its portion on Sept. 9 and 10.

Recall the Ag panels have an instruction to increase spending by $135 billion over the next 10 years. Many expect the Agriculture panels to boost funding and revamp conservation programs to address greenhouse gas emissions; increase nutrition spending; further address equity issues, including potential fixes to address constitutional objections raised in federal courts to date; increase broadband funding; and address natural disasters affecting farmers and ranchers, among other things.

Afghanistan will continue to dominate Washington as the focus continues on the extraction of Americans still in the country and the exit of Afghanis that have helped the U.S. and could be targeted by the Taliban.

The U.S. on Friday carried out a drone strike against Isis-K “planner” in eastern Afghanistan, in its first move to retaliate against the terrorist group for its deadly attack on Kabul airport on Thursday. According to U.S. Central Command on Friday night, American forces conducted an “over-the-horizon counter-terrorism operation” in Nangarhar province of the country. “Initial indications are that we killed the target(s). We know of no civilian casualties,” a spokesperson said. On Saturday, the Pentagon said the U.S. military strike the day before killed two "high-profile" ISIS targets and wounded a third, in the first known U.S. military action since Thursday's deadly suicide bombing at the Kabul airport. Meanwhile, Afghan fatalities rose to nearly 200 after last Thursday’s suicide bombing in Kabul.

Hearings and Events This Week

Monday, Aug. 30

· FTC antitrust policy. Hudson Institute virtual discussion on "Perspectives on the Current Federal Trade Commission," focusing on antitrust policy.

· Covid vaccines. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention teleconference of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices to discuss Pfizer's Covid-19 vaccine, and additional discussions on mRNA booster doses.

· LNG. U.S./Qatar Business Council virtual discussion on "How Will Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) Drive a Sustainable Energy World?"

· Fusion energy. Energy Department teleconference of the Fusion Energy Sciences Advisory Committee.

· Supply chains. Atlantic Council virtual discussion with Brian Menell, founder and CEO of TechMet, on "creating secure and sustainable critical mineral supply chains."

· Economic analysis and environmental policy. Resources for the Future virtual discussion on "the role of economic analysis in informing environmental rulemaking and policy, regulations for greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act, and EPA's approach to environmental justice considerations."

· Economic reports. Pending Home Sales Index | Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey

· USDA reports. AMS. Export Inspections NASS: Crop Progress

Tuesday, Aug. 31

· CODEX meeting preparation. USDA U.S. Codex office teleconference to provide information and receive public comments on agenda items and draft U.S. positions to be discussed at the 35th Session of the Codex Committee on Fish and Fishery Products of the Codex Alimentarius Commission, which will meet by correspondence Sept. 20-Oct. 20.

· Afghanistan war. Washington Post Live virtual book discussion on "The Afghanistan Papers: A Secret History of the War."

· Cybersecurity. Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion on "Cyber Defenders: Cyber Policies and Priorities," focusing on the status of cyber defense across federal agencies.

· Covid vaccines. Final day of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention meeting of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices to discuss Pfizer's Covid-19 vaccine, and additional discussions on mRNA booster doses.

· Fusion energy. Final day of the Energy Department meeting by teleconference of the Fusion Energy Sciences Advisory Committee.

· Covid impacts on retail. Washington Post Live virtual "Path Forward" discussion on "Rebuilding Retail" with Jodie McLean, CEO of EDENS, examining "how staffing and supply chain issues, as well as continued health safety concerns, are changing the retail experience post-Covid."

· Defense and small businesses. National Defense Industrial Association virtual discussion with Farooq Mitha, director of the Defense Department's Office of Small Business Programs.

· Economic reports. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI | FHFA House Price Index | Chicago PMI | Consumer Confidence

· USDA reports. NASS: Agricultural Prices | Egg Products | Mushrooms ERS: Dairy Data: Fluid beverage milk sales; Selected soft dairy products; Number and average size of U.S. fluid milk product plants

Wednesday, Sept. 1

· CODEX food labeling. USDA U.S. Codex office teleconference of the Codex Alimentarius Commission to discuss agenda items and draft United States positions to be discussed at the 46th Session of the Codex Committee on Food Labeling to be held Sept. 27-Oct. 1.

· Wind energy. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration teleconference of the Hydrographic Services Review Panel on issues relevant to NOAA's navigation services, including offshore wind energy and data sharing for ocean mapping and technology to address ocean mapping in 40 meters and shallower.

· Japan-Taiwan ties. Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion on "Changing the Discourse on Taiwan: Japan/Taiwan Ties in 2021."

· FY 2022 budget: NDAA. House Armed Services Committee markup of HR 4350, the "National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2022."

· Social Security and Medicare trust funds. Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget virtual discussion on "What's Going on With the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds?"

· Focus on pandemics. Center for Global Development virtual discussion on "Resolving Today's Global Health Crisis, and Avoiding Future Pandemics."

· Cybersecurity. House Homeland Security Committee hearing on "Stakeholder Perspectives on the Cyber Incident Reporting for Critical Infrastructure Act of 2021."

· PPP loan forgiveness. House Small Business Committee hearing on "What Comes Next? PPP Forgiveness."

· Government transportation. Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion on "The Future of Government Transportation."

· Afghanistan. Washington Post Live virtual discussion on "The Future for Afghan Women."

· Climate change planning. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration teleconference to introduce a project called East Coast Climate Change Scenario Planning.

· Economic reports. ADP Employment Report | PMI Mfg. Index Final | ISM Mfg. Index | Construction Spending

· Energy reports. EIA Petroleum Status Report | Weekly Ethanol Production

· USDA reports. NASS: Cotton System | Fats & Oils | Grain Crushings | Broiler Hatchery

Thursday, Sept. 2

· Chinese politics. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on "Rethinking Chinese Politics."

· Covid issues. Washington Post Live virtual discussion on "Coronavirus: Finding Answers."

· Climate change planning. Final day of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration meeting by teleconference to introduce a project called East Coast Climate Change Scenario Planning.

· End of World War II. Friends of the National World War II Memorial and the National Park Service hold a ceremony to commemorate the 76th anniversary of the Allied Forces' victory in the Pacific and the end of World War II.

· Wind energy. Final day of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration meeting by teleconference of the Hydrographic Services Review Panel on issues relevant to NOAA's navigation services, including offshore wind energy and data sharing for ocean mapping and technology to address ocean mapping in 40 meters and shallower.

· Economic reports. Motor Vehicle Sales | Jobless Claims | International Trade | Productivity and Costs | Factory Orders

· Energy reports. EIA Natural Gas Report

· USDA reports. FAS. Export Sales ERS: September 2021 Farm Income Forecast

Friday, Sept. 3

· Kansas City Southern has a special shareholder meeting to seek approval for its proposed merger with Canadian National Railway. In May, Kansas City Southern agreed to combine with Canadian National in a cash and stock transaction valued at roughly $34 billion.

· Covid response in Europe. Business Council for International Understanding virtual discussion that is closed to the press on the European Investment Bank's response to Covid-19.

· Nuclear power. National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine virtual workshop on "Understanding the Societal Challenges Facing Nuclear Power."

· Economic reports. Employment | PMI Composite Final | ISM Services Index

· Energy reports. Baker-Hughes Rig Count

· USDA reports. ERS: Livestock and Meat International Trade Data | US Agricultural Trade Data Update NASS: Peanut Prices | Dairy Products

Economic Reports for the Week

The economic data highlight of the week will be Friday's release of August employment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists on average are forecasting a gain of about 780,000 nonfarm payrolls, after an increase of 943,000 in July. The U.S. unemployment rate is seen ticking down 0.2 percentage points, to 5.2%. Scott Anderson, chief economist of the Bank of the West, says the jobs data “could be the deciding factor on the taper announcement timing.” If the August employment report comes in hot, Anderson adds, “a September FOMC taper announcement is possible. However, our forecast is for a slowdown in U.S. job creation in August, which should push the formal taper announcement into November, with the actual tapering of asset purchases beginning in December.”

Monday, Aug. 30

National Association of Realtors reports its Pending Home Sales Index for July. Consensus estimate is for a 1% month-over-month decline, after a 1.9% drop in June.

Tuesday, Aug. 31

Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index for August. Economists forecast a 124 reading, about five points lower than the July figure, which was the highest since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Institute for Supply Management releases its Chicago Business Barometer, a leading indicator for the U.S. economy. Expectations are for a 67.4 reading for August, lower than July’s 73.4.
S&P CoreLogic reports its Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for June. The consensus call is for an 18% annual gain. If that estimate proves to be correct, it would be the third consecutive record increase, after 14.8% and 16.6% advances, respectively, in April and May. In May, cities out west — Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle — led the way, with better-than 23% year-over-year jumps.

Wednesday, Sept. 1

MBA Mortgage Applications
ADP releases its National Employment Report for August. Economists forecast an increase of 637,500 in people on nonfarm private-sector payrolls, after a 330,000 gain in July.
ISM releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for August. Economists forecast a 58.7 reading, slightly lower than July’s.
Census Bureau reports on construction spending for July. Expectations are for a 0.4% month-over-month gain, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.56 trillion.

Thursday, Sept. 2

Jobless Claims
Motor vehicle sales
Fed Balance Sheet
Money Supply

Friday, Sept. 3

ISM releases its Services Purchasing Managers Index for August. The consensus call is for a 59.5 reading, lower than July’s record-high 64.1.
Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the jobs report for August. The economy is forecast to have added 781,500 positions, after a 943,000 increase in July. The unemployment rate is expected to have edged down to 5.2% from 5.4%.

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events

USDA’s outlook on farm income arrives Thursday amid rising market prices which will no doubt have USDA economists boosting the revenue coming in for crops in 2021. The gov’t payment component will also be important to watch as the Biden administration has pushed out additional Covid aid efforts, some of them from funds that were approved by Congress in December 2021.

U.S. agricultural trade data arrives Friday and the focus there will be on how much closer to the updated forecasts for U.S. agricultural exports and imports the July data shows. The trade data has for several months used the WTO definition of agricultural products that USDA has now adopted in their export forecasts released last week, providing ideally a more-realistic picture of the agricultural trade situation.

Monthly reports on oilseed crush and corn used to make ethanol arrive Wednesday and the latter will be important with the EPA having finally sent forward their proposed levels for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS).

Statistics Canada on Monday will release its report on production of crops such as wheat, canola and soybeans, while the United Nations’ monthly FAO food price index will be published Thursday.

Monday, Aug. 30

Ag reports and events:

Export Inspections
Crop Progress
StatsCanada releases production data for wheat, durum, canola, barley and soybeans
Holiday: U.K. public holiday; agriculture futures contracts closed on ICE Futures Europe