U.S. soybean carryover expected to double in coming WASDE
On average, analysts surveyed by Reuters expect corn harvested acreage to edge around 100,000 acres higher, but for USDA’s yield to dip 0.3 bu., trimming its production estimate to 14.973 billion bushels.
On soybeans, analysts expect production to rise just over 40 million bu. to 4.415 billion bu., with a rise in yields expected to more than make up for a slight cut in harvested acres.
The reports will be out at 11:00 a.m. CT on Oct. 12. The following expectations are based on survey work by Reuters (Bloomberg for cotton).
|
Expectations for 2021 |
|||
|
Corn |
|||
|
Production |
Yield |
Harvested acres (mil.) |
|
|
Average est. |
14.973 |
176.0 |
85.095 |
|
Range |
14.788-15.188 |
174.0-178.5 |
84.900-85.284 |
|
USDA Sept. est. |
14.996 |
176.3 |
85.085 |
|
Soybeans |
|||
|
|
Production |
Yield |
Harvested acres (mil.) |
|
Average est. |
4.415 |
51.1 |
86.349 |
|
Range |
4.374-4.466 |
50.5-51.5 |
85.100-86.729 |
|
USDA Sept. est. |
4.374 |
50.6 |
86.436 |
|
Cotton |
|||
|
Production |
Yield |
Harvested acres (mil.) |
|
|
Average est. |
18.37 |
NA |
NA |
|
Range |
17.90-18.60 |
NA |
NA |
|
USDA Sept. est. |
18.51 |
895 |
9.92 |
U.S. soybean carryover is expected to more than double to 373 million bu. after USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks Report revealed USDA underestimated last year’s crop. Corn carryover is also expected to climb from September, but by a much smaller, 24 million bushels. Wheat stocks are expected to slide roughly 30 million bu. from September.
|
Expectations for |
|
|
Corn – billion bushels |
|
|
2021-22 |
|
|
Average est. |
1.432 |
|
Range |
1.238-1.568 |
|
USDA September |
1.408 |
|
Soybeans – million bushels |
|
|
2021-22 |
|
|
Average est. |
300 |
|
Range |
161-373 |
|
USDA September |
185 |
|
|
|
|
Wheat – million bushels |
|
|
2021-22 |
|
|
Average est. |
576 |
|
Range |
470-615 |
|
USDA September |
615 |
|
|
|
|
Cotton – million bales |
|
|
2021-22 |
|
|
USDA |
3.44 |
|
Average est. |
3.16-3.75 |
|
USDA September |
3.70 |
|
Expectations for |
|
|
Corn – MMT |
|
|
|
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
298.76 |
|
Range |
295.00-303.00 |
|
USDA September |
297.63 |
|
Soybeans – MMT |
|
|
|
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
100.72 |
|
Range |
96.00-103.00 |
|
USDA September |
98.89 |
|
Wheat – MMT |
|
|
|
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
280.82 |
|
Range |
278.00-284.50 |
|
USDA September |
283.22 |
|
Cotton – million bales |
|
|
|
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
86.50 |
|
Range |
85.18-87.30 |
|
USDA September |
86.68 |
