U.S. hog herd contracted 4% as of Dec. 1

USDA estimates the U.S. hog herd at 74.201 million head as of Dec. 1, down 3.111 million head (4.0%) from last year. The market hog inventory at 68.021 million head declined 3.115 million head (4.4%) from last year. The breeding herd at 6.18 million head was nearly unchanged.

Producers farrowed 4.8% fewer sows this fall than last year, but the number of pigs saved per litter was a record high for the quarter at 11.19 head. That resulted in the fall pig crop declining 3.6% from last year’s record to 33.712 million head.

Based on market hog inventories, slaughter will run about 6% under year-ago levels through mid-winter. From there through spring, slaughter should be about 2.5% to 3.5% under year-ago.

Looking forward, producers indicated they intend to increase farrowings by a modest 0.5% this winter. But farrowings next spring are expected to drop 0.8% from last year. With the breeding herd down 0.1%, the winter and spring pig crops won’t likely be any larger than year-ago, even if a record number of pigs per litter are saved.

USDA noted the following revisions to past data: “All inventory and pig crop estimates for December 2019 through September 2021 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. The revision made to the September 2021 all hogs and pigs inventory was 1.0%. The net revision made to the June 2021 all hogs and pigs inventory was 3.3%. A net revision of 1.0%was made to the March-May 2021 pig crop. The net revision made to the March 2021 all hogs and pigs inventory was 1.1%. A net revision of 3.6% was made to the December 2020-February 2021 pig crop. The net revision made to the December 2020 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.2%. A net revision slightly upward was made to the September-November 2020 pig crop. The net revision made to the September 2020 all hogs and pigs inventory was 1.3%. The net revision made to the June 2020 all hogs and pigs inventory was 2.5%. A net revision of 0.9% was made to the March-May 2020 pig crop. The net revision made to the March 2020 all hogs and pigs inventory was 3.2%. A net revision of 0.8% was made to the December 2019-February 2020 pig crop. The net revision made to the December 2019 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.7%. A net revision of 4.3% was made to the September-November 2019 pig crop.”

With virtually all of the categories coming in on the bullish side of pre-report expectations, the data should provide price support to lean hog futures.