Trade signals high degree of uncertainty regarding U.S. new-crop carryover
USDA will update its U.S. and global balance sheets on July 12 at 11:00 a.m. CT. The following expectations are generated by survey work by Reuters (cotton numbers are from Bloomberg). Note: USDA will not issue survey-based estimates for U.S. corn, soybean and cotton crops but it will incorporate acreage estimates from the June 30 Acreage Report.
Expectations for 2021 |
||
Corn |
||
Production |
Yield |
|
Average est. |
15.115 |
178.82 |
Range |
14.863-15.275 |
177.00-179.50 |
USDA June |
14.990 |
179.50 |
Soybeans |
||
|
Production |
Yield |
Average est. |
4.394 |
50.67 |
Range |
4.335-4.405 |
50.00-50.80 |
USDA June |
4.405 |
50.80 |
Cotton |
||
Production |
Yield |
|
Average est. |
17.29 |
NA |
Range |
16.00-18.50 |
NA |
USDA June |
17.00 |
847 |
Expectations for |
||
Corn – billion bushels |
||
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
1.088 |
1.402 |
Range |
1.000-1.257 |
1.057-1.542 |
USDA June |
1.107 |
1.357 |
Soybeans – million bushels |
||
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
134 |
148 |
Range |
120-149 |
120-165 |
USDA June |
135 |
155 |
|
||
Wheat – million bushels |
||
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
729 |
Range |
NA |
575-809 |
USDA June |
852* |
770 |
*set by June 1 stocks at 844 million bu. |
||
Cotton – million bales |
||
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
3.04 |
Range |
NA |
1.95-4.50 |
USDA June |
3.15 |
2.90 |
Expectations for |
||
Corn – MMT |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
Average est. |
279.76 |
288.97 |
Range |
276.00-284.00 |
284.40-295.00 |
USDA June |
280.60 |
289.41 |
Soybeans – MMT |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
Average est. |
87.62 |
92.57 |
Range |
86.55-88.71 |
91.10-93.50 |
USDA June |
88.00 |
92.55 |
Wheat – MMT |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
Average est. |
293.48 |
295.41 |
Range |
291.50-295.00 |
292.00-300.00 |
USDA June |
293.48 |
296.80 |
Cotton – million bales |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
Average est. |
NA |
89.86 |
Range |
NA |
88.40-91.97 |
USDA June |
93.05 |
89.30 |
Brazilian Production |
|
Soybeans – MMT |
|
Average est. |
136.76 |
Range |
134.00-138.00 |
USDA June |
137.00 |
|
|
Corn – MMT |
|
Average est. |
92.21 |
Range |
87.90-97.00 |
USDA June |
98.50 |
Argentine |
|
Soybeans – MMT |
|
Average est. |
46.61 |
Range |
45.00-48.00 |
USDA June |
47.00 |
|
|
Corn – MMT |
|
Average est. |
47.46 |
Range |
47.00-48.00 |
USDA June |
47.00 |
USDA will also issue its first all-wheat production estimate on July 12, including the first survey-based forecasts for other spring wheat and durum. Given the drought conditions in U.S. spring wheat areas, there is a wide range of estimates for other spring wheat and durum crop production.
Expectations for |
|
All wheat – billion bu. |
|
Average est. |
1.847 |
Range |
1.724-1.947 |
USDA 2020-21 |
1.898 |
|
|
Winter wheat – billion bu. |
|
Average est. |
1.331 |
Range |
1.256-1.372 |
USDA 2020-21 |
1.309 |
|
|
HRW wheat – million bu. |
|
Average est. |
786 |
Range |
725-826 |
USDA 2020-21 |
771 |
|
|
SRW wheat – million bu. |
|
Average est. |
340 |
Range |
286-365 |
USDA 2020-21 |
335 |
|
|
White winter wheat – million bu. |
|
Average est. |
205 |
Range |
170-250 |
USDA 2020-21 |
202 |
|
|
Other spring wheat – million bu. |
|
Average est. |
459 |
Range |
358-560 |
USDA 2020-21 |
NA |
|
|
Durum wheat – million bu. |
|
Average est. |
56 |
Range |
44-66 |
USDA 2020-21 |
NA |
|