Trade signals high degree of uncertainty regarding U.S. new-crop carryover

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USDA will update its U.S. and global balance sheets on July 12 at 11:00 a.m. CT. The following expectations are generated by survey work by Reuters (cotton numbers are from Bloomberg). Note: USDA will not issue survey-based estimates for U.S. corn, soybean and cotton crops but it will incorporate acreage estimates from the June 30 Acreage Report. 
 

Expectations for 2021
U.S. Production

                Corn     

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Average est.

15.115

178.82

Range

14.863-15.275

177.00-179.50

USDA June

14.990

179.50

 

Soybeans

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Average est.

4.394

50.67

Range

4.335-4.405

50.00-50.80

USDA June

4.405

50.80

 

Cotton

 

Production
(mil. bales)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

Average est.

17.29

NA

Range

16.00-18.50

NA

USDA June

17.00

847

 

Expectations for
U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

 

2020-21

2021-22

Average est.

1.088

1.402

Range

1.000-1.257

1.057-1.542

USDA June

1.107

1.357

 

Soybeans – million bushels

 

2020-21

2021-22

Average est.

134

148

Range

120-149

120-165

USDA June

135

155

 

Wheat – million bushels

 

2020-21

2021-22

Average est.

NA

729

Range

NA

575-809

USDA June

852*

770

*set by June 1 stocks at 844 million bu.

Cotton – million bales

 

2020-21

2021-22

Average est.

NA

3.04

Range

NA

1.95-4.50

USDA June

3.15

2.90

 

Expectations for
Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

 

2020-21

2021-22

Average est.

279.76

288.97

Range

276.00-284.00

284.40-295.00

USDA June

280.60

289.41

 

Soybeans – MMT

 

2020-21

2021-22

Average est.

87.62

92.57

Range

86.55-88.71

91.10-93.50

USDA June

88.00

92.55

 

Wheat – MMT

 

2020-21

2021-22

Average est.

293.48

295.41

Range

291.50-295.00

292.00-300.00

USDA June

293.48

296.80

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2020-21

2021-22

Average est.

NA

89.86

Range

NA

88.40-91.97

USDA June

93.05

89.30

 

Brazilian Production

Soybeans – MMT

Average est.

136.76

Range

134.00-138.00

USDA June

137.00

 

Corn – MMT

Average est.

92.21

Range

87.90-97.00

USDA June

98.50

 

Argentine
Production

Soybeans – MMT

Average est.

46.61

Range

45.00-48.00

USDA June

47.00

 

Corn – MMT

Average est.

47.46

Range

47.00-48.00

USDA June

47.00

 

USDA will also issue its first all-wheat production estimate on July 12, including the first survey-based forecasts for other spring wheat and durum. Given the drought conditions in U.S. spring wheat areas, there is a wide range of estimates for other spring wheat and durum crop production.

Expectations for
U.S. Wheat Production

All wheat – billion bu.

Average est.

1.847

Range

1.724-1.947

USDA 2020-21

1.898

 

Winter wheat – billion bu.

Average est.

1.331

Range

1.256-1.372

USDA 2020-21

1.309

 

HRW wheat – million bu.

Average est.

786

Range

725-826

USDA 2020-21

771

 

SRW wheat – million bu.

Average est.

340

Range

286-365

USDA 2020-21

335

 

White winter wheat – million bu.

Average est.

205

Range

170-250

USDA 2020-21

202

 

Other spring wheat – million bu.

Average est.

459

Range

358-560

USDA 2020-21

NA

 

Durum wheat – million bu.

Average est.

56

Range

44-66

USDA 2020-21

NA

 

 

 

 

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