La Nina re-emergence could spell trouble for Brazilian producers, opportunity for the U.S.
Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicated there were 55% odds of La Nina reemerging during the September through November period and 66% odds of a re-emergence during the November to January timeframe. Should that occur, that would be bad news for south-central Brazil, according to South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier. He says, “A return of La Nina could aggravate an already exceptional drought in south-central Brazil that has resulted in one of the driest periods in over 90 years.”
Cordonnier details that the development of La Nina could delay the start of the summer rains again in September and October, with the south-central states of Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais most at risk.
Cordonnier continues that corn prices are already high and are expected to remain so into early 2022. If La Nina reemerges and disrupts weather in 2021-22, Brazil could be facing short supplies for another one to two years. That, in turn, could allow the U.S. to ship more corn. Prolonged high feed costs could also cause Brazil’s livestock sector to rein in production.