Washington Focus on Today's USDA Supply and Demand Updates

Posted on 08/12/2019 4:07 AM

President Trump planning August 'working vacation'; Congress in recess until Sept. 9

Today brings the much-anticipated USDA supply and demand updates, with many in the private ag sector looking beyond them for still-lower crop forecasts ahead for corn and soybeans. Others say USDA may get “more realistic” on their demand forecasts for those crops, which some see as too robust.
     The House and Senate are on recess until Sept. 9.


Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) says gun legislation will be at the top of the agenda when lawmakers return from their summer. break, including expanded background checks and so-called red flag laws to keep firearms out of the hands of dangerous individuals.

No early return. Despite pressure from lawmakers, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, McConnell says he won’t bring the Senate back early from the recess to act.

President Donald Trump has said he’s planning an August “working vacation” at his Bedminster, N.J., golf course.

Economic updates for the week include:

Monday:
— Treasury Department releases the nation’s budget statement for July. Consensus estimates are for a $111 billion deficit, worse than last July’s $77 billion shortfall.

Tuesday:
— Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases its consumer price index for July. Expectations are for a 1.8% year-over-year rise, up from June’s 1.6%. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen jumping 2.1%, even with June’s number.
— National Federation of Independent Business reports its Small Business Optimism Index for July. Economists forecast a 105 reading, up from June’s 103.3.

Wednesday:
— BLS releases the Import and Export Price Indexes for July. Import prices are expected to decline 0.2%, while exports prices are seen falling 0.1%. This compares with drops of 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively, in June.

Thursday:
— National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/ Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for August. Economists forecast a 65 reading, in line with July’s data.
— Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August. Expectations are for a flat reading, down from July’s 4.3.
— BLS releases productivity and costs data for the second quarter. Nonfarm business sector productivity is expected to rise 0.9% after a 3.4% first-quarter jump. Unit labor costs are seen rising 2.9% after declining 1.6%.
— Retail Sales

Friday:
— University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for August. Consensus estimates are for a 98.2 reading, about even with July.
— Census Bureau releases residential construction data for July. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.26 million housing starts and 1.27 building permits. Both estimates are about even with June data.

Key USDA & international ag and energy-related reports and events on tap:

Monday, Aug. 12

Ag reports and events:

  • Holiday: India, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia
  • Export Inspections
  • Crop Progress
  • WASDE
  • Crop Production
  • World Agricultural Production
  • Cotton Ginnings
  • Cotton: World Markets and Trade
  • Grains: World Markets and Trade
  • Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • China’s agriculture outlook committee to publish monthly supply & demand on corn, soy, cotton and sugar

Energy reports and events:

  • EIA Drilling Productivity Report, with shale production forecasts for September

Tuesday, Aug. 13

Ag reports and events:

  • Feed Grains Database
  • Meat Price Spreads
  • Dairy Monthly Tables & Dairy Quarterly Data
  • Wheat data
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board data on end-July palm oil stocks, exports and production
  • Malaysia’s Aug 1-10 Palm Oil Exports data by SGS

Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report

Wednesday, Aug. 14

Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • Turkey Hatchery
  • Fruit and Tree Nut Data
  • Vegetables and Pulses Data
  • Cotton & Wool Outlook
  • Oil Crops Outlook
  • Feed Outlook
  • Rice Outlook
  • Wheat Outlook

Energy reports and events:

  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
  • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • China releases first batch of July industrial output data, including crude oil and fuels, coal, gas and power, steel and aluminum

Thursday, Aug. 15

Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • Feed Grains: Yearbook Tables
  • Season Average Price Forecast
  • Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly crop report
  • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Intertek, AmSpec and SGS to release Malaysia’s Aug 1-15 palm oil exports data

Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • North Dakota oil production

Friday, Aug. 16

Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on various U.S. futures and options contracts.
  • Peanut Prices
  • Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook
  • Sugar Outlook
  • Farm Computer Usage and Ownership
  • Earnings: Deere releases third quarter fiscal 2019 earnings.
  • China Soybean Industry Summit, Harbin
  • China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange launches polished round-grain rice futures
  • Indonesia 2020 agriculture outlook, Jakarta

Energy reports and events:

  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts
  • OPEC monthly report with estimates of world demand, production

Other reports and events this week include:

Monday, Aug. 12

  • USDA Sec. Sonny Perdue will participate in a listening session with Reps. G.T. Thompson, Fred Keller, John Joyce and Pennsylvania Secretary of Agriculture Russell Redding. Following the listening session, Perdue and Thompson will hold a media availability.

Tuesday, Aug. 13

  • Senate Finance Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) speaks on the challenges that rural Iowans face in securing quality health care at a Bipartisan Policy Center event; Des Moines, Iowa.
  • Online campaigns. Katie Harbath, Facebook’s global elections director, and Ginny Badanes, Microsoft’s director of strategic projects, cybersecurity & democracy, discuss challenges to policy makers and internet platforms from movements and online campaigns that spread “disinformation”.
  • Huawei. Trump administration interim rule banning federal agencies from buying video surveillance and telecommunications products from China’s Huawei Technologies takes effect.
  • Bars any executive agency, government contractor or company that receives a government loan from using Huawei equipment

Wednesday, Aug. 14

  • SEC Chairman Jay Clayton takes part in annual Government-Business Forum which focuses on small businesses and their investors; Creighton University, Omaha, Neb.

Thursday, Aug. 15

  • Joseph Maguire, current head of the National Counterterrorism Center, becomes acting director of national intelligence. Dan Coats, director of national intelligence, and Sue Gordon, deputy director, are scheduled to resign.
  • SEC Chairman Jay Clayton attends Main Street investors roundtable to discuss tips to avoid fraud, the impact of fees and costs, and differences between broker-dealers and investment advisers. Chicago Regional Office.

 

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