USDA Acreage, Grain & Rice Stocks Reports on Tuesday; Jobs Report Thursday

Posted on 06/29/2020 5:00 AM

House to vote on multibillion-dollar infrastructure measure

 


Washington Focus


 

Friday brings the U.S. Independence Day holiday. Markets are closed, along with government offices. USDA reports on Tuesday (Acreage, Grain Stocks) and a big Jobs report on Thursday will be the focus.

 

 

The Senate will meet Monday at 3 p.m. ET to resume debate on the motion to proceed on the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2021 (S 4049) — the bill to fund the U.S. military. The chamber will vote at 5:30 p.m. on the motion. The chamber voted 90-7 to invoke cloture, or limit debate, on the motion to proceed to the legislation.

 

     The measure would authorize $740.5 billion for national security. DOD funding and would include $636.4 billion subject to the defense spending cap and $69 billion for Overseas Contingency Operations, which don’t count against the cap. The bill also would authorize $25.9 billion for Energy Department programs and $9.2 billion for other programs that contribute to the total.

 

The House will vote on HR 2, a more than $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan that would include spending on roads, bridges, transit systems, schools, housing, rural broadband and the postal service. The House Rules Committee is scheduled to meet Monday to set the terms for floor consideration of the bill. The Moving Forward Act includes authorization for $100 billion in spending for broadband expansion and $300 billion for roads and bridges, $100 billion for public transportation and billions for spending on schools, housing and hospitals.

 

     The House will vote Monday on HR 1425, a bill to bolster the Affordable Care Act and allow the government to negotiate the price of some medicines.

 

     The chamber could also vote on legislation (HR 7301) that would give additional assistance to renters, homeowners, and people experiencing homelessness during the Covid-19 pandemic. The measure would authorize about $194 billion in housing aid, expand moratoriums on foreclosures and evictions, authorize federal loans for rental property owners and mortgage servicers, and offer bankruptcy relief, among other provisions.

 

     Surface transportation bill rule, vote this week. The House Rules Committee will meet today to debate a rule that will structure floor debate for the $1.5 trillion surface transportation bill, HR 2. The House Transportation Committee has already approved its part of the bill, but other provisions dealing with water resources, broadband, and more will be pieced together by the Rules Committee. At least 320 amendments have been submitted so far, 67 of which are Republican and 42 are bipartisan. A floor vote is expected this week.

 

     A climate panel will unveil its recommendations on Tuesday. The House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis report will include together recommendations to virtually every House committee. But getting a consensus from the committee’s nine Democratic and six GOP members of the panel face hurdles. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said last December that Democrats were committed to passing a climate change bill in 2020 that had Republican support. Republican aides said they plan to offer their own recommendations by the fall, possibly linked to a rollout of more GOP climate policies focusing on innovation rather than regulation. Major climate legislation will likely wait until 2021, when Democrats hope they will have captured the White House and Senate from GOP control.

 

     The House will vote on the Senate-passed Great American Outdoors Act by the end of July, according to House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-M). The bill, which permanently funds the Land and Water Conservation Fund and addresses the maintenance backlog in national parks, has wide support, but the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA), the American Sheep Industry Association (ASI), and the Public Lands Council (PLC) and their state affiliates oppose it.

 

The USMCA trade deal that replaces NAFTA comes into effect on Wednesday. American companies and officials have said they could launch disputes with Canada and Mexico over access to dairy, energy and biotech markets once it is implemented, while U.S. unions are expected to utilize new powers under the agreement that aims to increase labor costs and worker rights south of the border.

 


Hearings and Events This Week


 

The House Armed Services Committee is scheduled to mark up the fiscal 2021 National Defense Authorization Act (HR 6395) on Wednesday.

 

     Fed Chair Jerome Powell and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin testify Tuesday before the House Financial Services Committee regarding the Federal Reserve, the Trump administration and Congress' response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

 

     Note: Most hearings below will be held remotely.

 

 

Monday, June 29

 

     • San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly takes part in a panel discussion on college attainment.

     • New York Fed President John Williams moderates a discussion with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. Hosted by the Economic Club of New York.
     • Transportation/energy infrastructure investment. House Rules Committee meets to formulate a rule on HR 2, the "INVEST in America Act" (Moving Forward Act).

 

Tuesday, June 30

 

     • Fed Chair Jerome Powell and U.S. Treasury Sec. Steven Mnuchin testify before the House Financial Services Committee.

     • New York Fed President John Williams gives a speech on central banking in the age of Covid-19, on a webinar hosted by the Institute of International Finance. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel and BOE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe speak at the same event.
     • Farm policy. ARC/PLC signup deadline for the 2020 crop year.
     • Climate report. House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis report will issue its climate report.
     • State budgets. Deadline looms for hard-up state and local governments. Many have until Tuesday to complete budgets for the fiscal year ahead, and they are counting on federal aid to plug deficits caused by the pandemic. The new batch of spending plans will also indicate the impact of recent calls to slash police funding.
     • Work/school amid Covid-19. Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee hearing on "Covid-19: Update on Progress Toward Safely Getting Back to Work and Back to School." Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, will testify.
     • Digitization of money/payments. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing.
     • Pandemic preparedness/prevention/response. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing.
     • 2020 tax filing season/Covid-19 recovery. Senate Finance Committee hearing.
     • Censorship as a Non-tariff barrier to trade. Senate Finance — Subcommittee on International Trade, Customs and Global Competitiveness hearing.
     • Treasury Department/Federal Reserve pandemic response. House Financial Services Committee hearing. Witnesses: Steven Mnuchin, Secretary of the Treasury; Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve chairman.
     • China's maritime ambitions. House Foreign Affairs — Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, and Nonproliferation hearing.

 

Wednesday, July 1

 

     • U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is due to take effect.
     • Chicago Fed President Charles Evans hosts a virtual community forum on Chicago’s future.
     • Russia. A vote could set up another 16 years of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russians voting in a national referendum that ends Wednesday are widely expected to back constitutional changes that would allow the president to run for two more terms after his current tenure ends in 2024.
     • Infrastructure development opportunities. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing on "Better, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter, and Stronger: Infrastructure Development Opportunities to Drive Economic Recovery and Resiliency."
     • EIDL. House Small Business Committee hearing on the Small Business Administration’s Economic Injury Disaster Loan Program (EIDL).
     • China's National Security Law in Hong Kong. House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing.
     • National Defense Authorization Act. House Armed Services Committee markup of HR 6395, the "National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for FY 2021."
     • Post-Covid U.S./China relations. House Select Intelligence Committee hearing.
     • Latin America/Caribbean and Covid-19. House Foreign Affairs — Subcommittee on Western Hemisphere, Civilian Security, and Trade hearing on "The Trump Administration's Response to Covid-19 in Latin America and the Caribbean."

 

Thursday, July 2

 

     • Coronavirus vaccine update. Senate Appropriations — Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, Education and Related Agencies hearing on "Operation Warp Speed: the researching, manufacturing, and distributing of a safe and effective coronavirus vaccine."
     • State Department IG firing. House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing.

 

Friday, July 3

 

     • U.S. Independence Day holiday is observed. Markets are closed, along with government offices.
     • President Trump plans to visit Mount Rushmore in South Dakota for an Independence Day fireworks show. But first his administration had to lift environmental restrictions that banned fireworks at the monument.

 


Economic Reports and Events for the Week


 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin testify before Congress on June 30 in what's expected to be a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy. The Fed's John Williams and Charles Evans also have speeches on the calendar and FOMC minutes are due out on July 1.

 

     On the economic report front, the June jobs report is the focus on July 2. Economists project a gain of 3 million jobs during the month to take the unemployment rate to 12.2% from 13.3%. If payrolls look weak for June, the pressure could increase for another Covid-19 relief and stimulus measure.

 

Monday, June 29

     — National Association of Realtors reports its Pending Home Sales Index for May. Economists forecast a sharp rebound of 25%, to an 89 reading; in April, the index slumped by 21.8%. An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined.
     — Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas releases its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for June. The index is expected to show a continuing bounceback in the manufacturing sector, with a minus 30 reading, after registering minus 74 and minus 49.2 in April and May, respectively.
     — San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly takes part in a panel discussion on college attainment.
     — New York Fed President John Williams moderates a discussion with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. Hosted by the Economic Club of New York.

Tuesday, June 30

     — Institute for Supply Management releases its Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index for June. The consensus call is for a 42 reading, up from May’s 32.3, which was the lowest since March 1982.
     — Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index for June. Expectations are for a 90 level, up from 86.6 in May.
     — S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
     — Fed Chair Jerome Powell and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin testify before the House Financial Services Committee.
     — New York Fed President John Williams gives a speech on central banking in the age of Covid-19, on a webinar hosted by the Institute of International Finance. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel and BOE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe speak at the same event.
     — China releases its official manufacturing purchasing managers index for June. Economists expect factory activity to grow but at a slower pace than in April or May after fears of a second wave of infections dampened sentiment.
     — Eurozone consumer inflation for June is expected to remain tepid amid weak demand as the bloc’s economy slowly emerges from virus-related lockdowns.

Wednesday, July 1


     — ADP releases its National Employment Report for June. Economists forecast a gain of 2.9 million private-sector jobs, a huge improvement on May’s 2.8 million decline.
     — Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases the minutes of its June monetary-policy meeting.
     — ISM releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for June. The consensus forecast is for a 49 reading, up from 43.1 in May and 41.5 in April.
     — MBA Mortgage Applications
     — PMI Manufacturing Index
     — Construction Spending
     — Chicago Fed President Charles Evans hosts a virtual community forum on Chicago’s future.
     — Bank of Japan’s tankan corporate sentiment survey for the second quarter is expected to show large manufacturers were the most pessimistic since 2009, reflecting the impact of the pandemic.

Thursday, July 2


     — Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the jobs report for June. Economists expect it to show that 3 million nonfarm jobs were added, and that the unemployment rate fell to 12.2% from 13.3%. This follows a 2.5 million gain in nonfarm payrolls in May. However, those numbers might not capture signs that the recovery is losing momentum.
     — Department of Labor reports on initial jobless claims for the week ended on June 27. Jobless claims have fallen for 12 consecutive weeks, since peaking at 6.9 million in late March, but remain well above one million — a record high before this year. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits is expected to fall by 155,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.325 million for the week ended June 27.
     — Factory orders are forecast rebounding 8.3% in May, when the Census Bureau releases data, after they slumped 13% in April.
     — Motor vehicle sales
     — International Trade
     — Fed Balance Sheet
     — Money Supply
     — Eurozone unemployment rate for May is expected to remain well below its U.S. equivalent, a reflection of government support programs that keep workers on payrolls even if businesses are closed or operating at partial capacity.

Friday, July 3


— U.S. equity and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Independence Day.

 


Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events


 

Tuesday brings key USDA reports on Acreage and Grain Stocks and Rice Stocks.

 

Monday, June 29

 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Export Inspections
  • Crop Progress
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Canada Statcan data on seeded area for wheat, durum, canola, barley, soybeans (According to a Bloomberg survey, Canada 2020 wheat planting seen at 25 million acres, about half a million less than Statistics Canada’s May est.; Durum wheat seen at 5.5 million acres, 300,000 more than in May; Canola seen at 20.9 million acres vs 20.6 million)

Tuesday, June 30

 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Acreage
  • Grain Stocks
  • Rice Stocks
  • Agricultural Prices
  • OECD annual agricultural policy monitoring and evaluation report
  • Malaysia’s palm oil export data for June 1-30

     Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • EIA 914 production report
  • Petroleum Supply Monthly

Wednesday, July 1

 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • Cotton System
  • Dairy Products
  • Fats & Oils
  • Grain Crushings
  • Brazil soybean exports
  • Australia commodity index
  • Canada markets closed in observance of Canada Day

Energy reports and events:

  • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories

Thursday, July 2

 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • Latest U.S. Agricultural Trade Data
  • Peanut Prices
  • UN FAO world food price index
  • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts

Friday, July 3

 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Markets are closed in observance of Independence Day
  • FranceAgriMer weekly update on crop conditions

 

 

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