U.S./China Trade Officials, Deputies to Meet for Four Days This Week

Posted on 10/06/2019 10:02 PM

USDA WASDE on Thursday | FOMC minutes | House impeachment inquiry continues

The lingering trade talks between China and the U.S. continue this week, with deputy-level officials meeting Monday and Tuesday, and higher-level officials meeting Thursday and Friday.
     USDA on Thursday issues its monthly supply and demand report, while the Federal Reserve on Wednesday releases minutes from its mid-September meeting, when it cut the federal-funds rate a quarter of a percentage point to 1.75%-2%.

 

President Donald Trump is upbeat, again, regarding an eventual trade agreement with China. Proof is needed and some hints may come this week when deputy-level officials meet in Washington on Monday and Tuesday and higher-level trade officials meet Thursday and Friday. The consensus is no major breakthroughs are expected, but the lengthy process has led to several surprising twists and turns before.

House Democrats' impeachment inquiry continues while Congress is on recess until Oct. 15. The inquiry's third week will begin with Washington focused on the existence of "multiple" unidentified whistleblowers and end with testimony from Marie Yovanovitch, who was removed as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine in the spring.

Besides pushing drug price legislation (HR 3), House Democrats are seeking to complete negotiations with the administration on the U.S-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA), finish spending bills for 2020 and enact gun control legislation. The history of the last two Congresses that conducted impeachment proceedings shows those efforts to remove a president did not stop legislative action.

USMCA progress. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) reported progress in negotiations with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to strengthen enforcement of labor and environmental standards in the trade agreement with Mexico and Canada. “We are on a path to yes,’' she said at an Oct. 2 press conference.

USDA’s monthly report on World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) comes Thursday, the same day China’s agriculture outlook committee will publish its monthly forecasts on supply and demand (CASDE) of soybeans, corn, cotton and sugar.

Key oil reports this week. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will release its monthly report on the global oil market Thursday, followed by one Friday from the International Energy Agency — the first since the September attack on Saudi Arabia's oil industry. Meanwhile, on Tuesday, EIA releases its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), including Winter Fuels Outlook.

Economic updates for the week include:

Monday:
— Federal Reserve releases consumer credit data for August. Economists forecast a $15 billion increase in total outstanding consumer debt to $4.14 trillion, which would be an all-time high.

Tuesday:
— National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for September. Consensus estimates are for 102 reading, down from August’s 103.1.
— Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Producer Price Index (PPI) for September. Expectations are for a 0.1% increase in the PPI, even with August’s uptick. The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen rising 0.2% after a 0.3% gain in August.

Wednesday:
— Federal Open Market Committee releases minutes from its mid-September meeting, when it cut the federal-funds rate a quarter of a percentage point to 1.75%-2%.
— Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for August. Economists forecast 7.25 million job openings on the last business day of August, little changed from July.
— MBA Mortgage Applications
— Wholesale Trade: Wholesale inventory data for August is expected to rise 0.4%, the same as in July.

Thursday:
— Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September. Core CPI is expected to jump 2.4% from the previous year, even with August’s level.
— Weekly jobless claims for the week ending Oct. 5 are expected to be at 219,000, same as the week before.
— Treasury Department is scheduled to release the Monthly Treasury Statement for September, the last month of fiscal 2019. Through the first 11 months of this fiscal year, the U.S. has run a deficit of $1.07 trillion, compared with $898 billion in the same period for fiscal 2018.
— Fed Balance Sheet
— Money Supply

Friday:
— Import and Export Prices: Labor Department is expected to report import prices slipped 0.1% in September after falling 0.5% the month prior.
— University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey for October is likely to be 92 following September's reading of 93.2.

Fed speakers on tap:

Monday:
— Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gives brief remarks before the premiere screening of KUED film "Marriner Eccles: Father of the Modern Federal Reserve" in Salt Lake City, Utah.
— Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a fireside chat talking about Minneapolis Fed work in Indian Country, in Prior Lake, Minnesota.

Tuesday:
— Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at the 61st annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics in Denver.
— Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari speaks at a town hall at St. Cloud State University, with audience Q&A, in St. Cloud, Minnesota.
— Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans speaks at the Chicago Rotary Club Luncheon, followed by media Q&A, in Chicago, Illinois.

Wednesday:
— Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell co-hosts a roundtable session with Kansas City Fed President Esther George discussing labor market conditions, local banking and other topics with a group of local businesses and community leaders in Kansas City, Missouri.

Thursday:
— Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a fireside chat on the Federal Reserve, the economy and markets before the Yahoo Finance 2019 All Markets Summit in New York, N.Y.
— Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester participates in a fireside chat at John Carroll University in University Heights, Ohio.

Friday:
— Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a fireside chat at the Council on Foreign Relations, in New York, N.Y.
— Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren speaks at the American Economic Challenges Symposium held at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in Madison, Wisconsin.
— Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan speaks in a moderated Q&A at the Commonwealth Club of California Luncheon in San Francisco, Calif.

Key USDA & international ag and energy-related reports and events on tap:

Monday, Oct. 7

Ag reports and events:

  • Holiday: China, Australia
  • Export Inspections
  • Crop Progress
  • U.S. Bioenergy Statistics
  • Livestock and Meat International Trade Data
  • Aquaculture Data
  • U.S. Agricultural Trade Data Update
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data

Tuesday, Oct. 8

Ag reports and events:

  • Holiday: India
  • France’s agriculture ministry releases 2019 crop output estimate

Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, including Winter Fuels Outlook
  • Oil & Money conference in London, featuring senior industry executives and OPEC officials (Oct. 8-10)
  • Rystad Energy Annual Summit in Singapore (Oct. 8-9)

Wednesday, Oct. 9

Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • Unica cane crush, sugar production
  • Russian Agriculture Ministry holds conference in Moscow, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev expected to attend
  • FranceAgriMer’s monthly grains press conference

Energy reports and events:

  • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
  • Calgary Energy Roundtable Conference; speakers include Imperial Oil’s John Whelan and Alberta energy minister Sonya Savage

Thursday, Oct. 10

Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • Meat Price Spreads
  • WASDE
  • Cotton Ginnings
  • Crop Production
  • Cotton: World Markets and Trade
  • Grains: World Markets and Trade
  • Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
  • World Agricultural Production
  • Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade
  • China agriculture outlook committee to publish monthly forecasts on supply/demand of soybeans, corn, cotton, sugar
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board releases Sept. data on palm oil stocks, exports and production
  • Malaysia’s Sept. 1-10 palm oil shipment data
  • Conab’s first report for 2019-20 grain crop
  • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • FGV seminar on agriculture perspectives in Latin America, Day 1

Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market report

Friday, Oct. 11

Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on various U.S. futures and options contracts.
  • Peanut Prices
  • Fruit and Tree Nut Data
  • Vegetables and Pulses Data
  • Feed Grains Database
  • Dairy Data (Dairy Monthly Tables)
  • Wheat data
  • FranceAgriMer weekly crop conditions

Energy reports and events:

  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts
  • IEA Monthly Oil Market report, including estimates of world demand, OPEC output

Other reports and events this week include:

Monday, Oct. 7

  • USMCA. Vice President Mike Pence visits Tyson Foods in Nashville, Tenn., where he will make remarks about the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact.
  • Supreme Court starts new term and issues list of orders.
  • Congress. House and Senate are on a two-week recess.
  • Logging & tariffs. Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Federal Spending Oversight and Emergency Management Subcommittee field hearing on "Squeezed at Both Ends: Federal Spending Resulting from Restrictive Logging Access and Timber Tariffs."
  • WOTUS. EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler in Bismarck, North Dakota, with Sens. Kevin Cramer (R-N.C.) and John Hoeven (R-N.D.) participate in a roundtable on "Waters of the United States," and holds a media availability.
  • Politics. The Donald J. Trump for President Campaign holds a background conference call briefing with senior political officials.
  • Trade. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) discussion on "Confronting the Challenges of Trade in a New Century."

Tuesday, Oct. 8

  • Technology. House Small Business Committee field hearing on "Silicon Prairie: Tech, Innovation and a High-Skilled Workforce in the Heartland."
  • Russia & WTO. U.S. Trade Representative hearing of the Trade Policy Staff Committee (TPSC) about the annual report to Congress on Russia's implementation of its obligations as a Member of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
  • Climate change & maritime issues. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) forum on "An Ocean of Change: How Climate Change is Upending our View of Maritime Sustainability, Sovereignty, and Security."
  • Middle East policy. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) discussion on "The Global Challenge of Political Polarization."
  • Political polarization. Brookings Institution discussion on "Global China: Assessing China's growing role in the world and implications for U.S.-China strategic competition."
  • Oil & gas industry & climate change. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) discussion on "Oil and Gas Industry Engagement on Climate Change."
  • Productivity & U.S. economy. University of Chicago's Becker Friedman Institute for Economics and the Chicago Economics Society discussion on "the productivity slowdown and declining business dynamism in the U.S."

Wednesday, Oct. 9

  • Keystone XL oil pipeline. Court hearing in Montana for TC Energy Corp.’s long-delayed Keystone XL oil pipeline. Nebraska Supreme Court in August ruled that regulators’ approval of the conduit’s route through the state was valid.
  • U.S./Egypt trade deal. Middle East Institute (MEI) discussion on "Trade, Development and Security: A Discussion on the Potential of a U.S.-Egypt Free Trade Agreement."
  • Belt & Road in Latin America. Atlantic Council discussion on "Belt and Road in Latin America: Where Does the Future Lie?"
  • Trade war impact on Asia. East-West Center in Washington discussion on "How the Trade War is Slowing Asia's Economic Growth."
  • Hong Kong. Asia Society discussion on "Young People and the Future of Hong Kong."

Thursday, Oct. 10

  • President Trump to hold campaign rally in Minneapolis. He could comment on Friday's RFS reform announcement.
  • China Vice Premier Liu He and other officials visit Washington to meet Treasury Sec. Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to build on trade talks between U.S. and Chinese deputy negotiators who met Monday and Tuesday. Talks, expected to run through Friday, will take place days before another threatened increase in U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports is due to take effect Oct. 15.
  • Chiefs of staff for 10 Republican Senators seeking re-election in 2020 will discuss issues facing voters and the political environment heading into next year’s campaign, at a Ripon Society event.
  • Farm Credit Administration meeting of the board.
  • Trade & elections. FiscalNote and CQ Roll Call discussion on "Will Trade Decide the Next Election?"
  • Monetary policy. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) discussion on "Monetary Policy in the 21st Century: An Allan Meltzer Perspective," focusing on "the policies of the world's central banks and how best they should respond to the next economic recession" from the perspective of the last Allan Meltzer.
  • Facebook’s Libra. Society for International Development, Washington, D.C., Chapter (SIDW) holds a discussion on "Libra: Facebook's Digital Currency and International Development."
  • China’s tech sector. Brookings Institution holds a discussion on "How China's Tech Sector is Challenging the World."
  • Global trade. Meridian International Center holds a discussion on global trade with members of the State Department Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs.

Friday, Oct. 11

  • Henry Kissinger. Brookings Institution book discussion on "Kissinger on Kissinger: Reflections on Diplomacy, Grand Strategy, and leadership," focusing on the role of Winston Lord during the Nixon administration.
  • U.S.-German relations. Meridian International Center discussion.

 

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